The Big Short Guy Just Bet $1 Billion That the AI Bubble Pops

Comments

• Tattorack@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Yay, yet another once in a lifetime financial crisis.

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  • horn_e4_beaver@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Capitalism is the only way ;)

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• OctopusNemeses@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Has anyone else noticed the recent resurgence of mechanical turk jobs? It’s all AI training work. Before the work was doing tasks directly. Now they have people training tailored AI models.

  In other words the tech bros have found get another way to shoehorn themselves in as a middle man. Instead of having workers do the work itself. Now the work is delegated to AI. Which is trained to do the task by humans.

  At first it said the LLM era was the end of mechanical turk work. It’s going in a circle back to mechanical turks again.

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• frustrated@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Well yeah. Sam Altman just came out and basically said he needs a few trillion dollars and government backed loans. This shit is going to be BAD.

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• HertzDentalBar@lemmy.blahaj.zone ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Now I most definitely don’t want it to pop 🤣 moreso because the reality is the bubble popping doesn’t hurt them it only hurts all the idiots who spent their meager earnings on this shit.

  The rich never suffer, other than having to buy the smaller yacht.

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• Sam_Bass@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  If he needs a straight pin to pop it I can send him a couple

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• FosterMolasses@leminal.space ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  There’s an AI bubble?

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  • stoly@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    This is the most accurate take I have yet seen.

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  • whoisearth@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    I’m thankfully OoL enough but I guarantee there are some AI backed crypto out there which is so deliciously awesome given the double down on smoke and mirrors.

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  • urandom@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    I think it’s all the way up in this case

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• Credibly_Human@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  This is in a category I’d like to call hopebait. People so badly wish things they feel are bad simply stopped themselves, that they’ll upvote anything that appears to confirm this.

  In this instance, there is nothing of substance in this article to suggest the end of anything is anywhere near in sight.

  One guy, who makes bets constantly, made another bet.

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  • whoisearth@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Seriously the stock market can remain irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

    People are idiots.

    Is there a consensus there’s an AI bubble? Sure?

    Can anyone predict what will happen? LOfuckingL

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• bignate31@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  I’ve got a problem with articles like this: “The guy who got it right once is betting a second time he’s going to get it right”. and then the article continues: “Even though he’s got it wrong a bunch of times since, he got it right that one time… So this has gotta be his second time!!”

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  • LittleBorat3@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    The odds of being right x times in a row must be really low, correct?

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• RizzRustbolt@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Which would explain why the Fed is dumping trillions of dollars into banks right now.

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• kljafgg9r0@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  What does his height have to do with anything? Are we body shaming?

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  • REDACTED@infosec.pub ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Huh. I understood that as “big player in shorting world”

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    • Muffi@programming.dev ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      You understood that part correctly, but misunderstood the joke

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    • Jackhammer_Joe@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      It’s a movie title ‘the big short’ which tells the story about the housing market bubble crash

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• Pyr_Pressure@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  I just phoned a business today that ended up with an “AI receptionist” when they didn’t answer the phone.

  They wanted to take my name down, asked who I was leaving a message for, and then recorded the message…

  My god what a painful process that was. It was absolutely useless. Firstly it got my name wrong, and then the name of the person I was leaving the message for wrong. No “Janet” my name is not Don it’s John, and no I’m not leaving a message for Kim Its for Kam. And then it needs to repeat your entire message back to you in order to make sure it didn’t fuck it up which amazingly the message was probably 95% okay but it was a giant waste of my time when a FUCKIN VOICEMAIL WOULD HAVE SUFFICED

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  • PokerChips@programming.dev ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    I’m reading along and I’m im like, “yep that’s dumb and that’s dumb, and that’s dumb. Yep that’s dumb and that’s dumb too.”

    Then I read the last 7 words and, “Oof… yeah that is REALLY FUCKING DUMB”

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  • Tollana1234567@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    an online store, for games used a fully AI agent as a CS, it was giving them the run around, till i kept asking about escalting it, finally it was able to either contact them shortly or through email.

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  • theparadox@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Had an issue with Comcast today. They forced me to use their Xfinity app, but what I needed to do wasn’t an apparent option within the app. The only option I saw was a support chatbot. The chatbot listed a link to the option I was looking for. The link opened a webview within the Xfinity app, in which there was a link to download the Xfinity app.

    Unnecessary Apps and chat bots. Two of my least favorite things referring me back and forth, forever, in an endless loop.

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    • Tollana1234567@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      comcast is probably the worst cs, plus they always trying to pedal you shit.

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    • burntbacon@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      referring me back and forth, forever, in an endless loop

      Just like they intended.

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• Pulsar@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  I have been trying to make sense of all AI Capex announcements for a while and I don’t get it. So please help me out if you know the answer.

  US Investment in 2024 ~$400b, 2025 ~$500b, 2026 ~600. Global investment 2026 1.5~$2.2t. Let’s say $2t US Investment by end of 2026. Investment will continue into the future but let’s assume that is not the case. Also that GPU will be obsolete in 5y. So, they have 60m to recoup $2t +ROI ~10%. So about $40b a month, US has a labor force of 170m. Thus, AI industry needs the equivalent of ~$240 per month per each employee person. I don’t see myself or my employer paying this for AI any time soon.

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  • iii@mander.xyz ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    I think Ray Dalio’s take on it is correct. It’s a consequence of currency devaluation, as people in general vote against the deflation necessary to deflate the bubble. (1)

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  • unit327@lemmy.zip ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    They don’t care about making profit by selling a product or a service, it’s all a speculative bet. They think if they “simply” make AGI they will win all the economy forever.

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    • 1984@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      I dont think the bubble will pop but I also dont think there will ever be agi from this.

      This is primitive tech and cant do agi. We would need something completely different than language models.

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• Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Seems like more of a bet specifically on Palantir, unless there are a bunch of other smaller bets they didn’t bother to mention.

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  • Tollana1234567@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    of all the AI, thiel kept palintir, and his other LOTR-themed Ai companies very secretive. since mossad/IDF, and ukraine uses it, i bet it gives faulty/false positive targeting?

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    • Corkyskog@sh.itjust.works ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      But as you said those are all secretive contracts. How would anyone know that kind of thing to bet against without some insider info?

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• Gorilladrums@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Although I do think that there’s a big AI bubble, the reality is that Pandora’s box has already been opened, and it’s not closing back up. The technology is here to stay and it will continue to be integrated into everyday life bubble or no bubble.

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  • AcidiclyBasicGlitch@sh.itjust.works ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    It was so over hyped from the beginning though. The broligarchs insisted as long as we fed it all of our data, and threw unlimited money at it, there was no way it wouldn’t be a success. That’s literally all America has been doing for nearly a year. They’ve forced it into every government department possible, even places where it clearly didn’t belong. They’ve thrown billions at it, they allowed fucking 19 year old DOGE fuckwads to access hoards of sensitive data on every U.S. citizen, and watched as they stole every cent they could get their hands on. After all of that, how much has AI in the U.S. actually improved since January 19th, 2025?

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    • Gorilladrums@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      I don’t think there’s anything inherently wrong with the technology itself. It really is exciting stuff that has a lot of useful applications. The issue has always been that the growth and development is driven by greed rather than realizing potential. With no government accountability or regulation and with the populace ignorant and apathetic, a bubble was bound to be the outcome

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  • ilinamorato@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Once the bubble pops, we can go back to letting AI do what it’s actually good at—pattern recognition, summarization, translation, natural language processing—and stop trying to shoehorn it into every single thing.

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    • Gorilladrums@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      I don’t see a future with big AI modrls like Meta AI, chatGPT, or Copilot going away those and others like them are used by people. But things like Meta’s new all AI app or things of that nature as well as the tens of thousands of the empty startup AI companies are what’s going to disappear. They’re products that nobody wants or uses, and they’re only there to inflate stock valuations. That’s where the bubble lies. The tech is here to stay, but only in cases where it’s actually used.

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• SabinStargem@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  My money is on the American bubble popping. China would do just fine. As to Europe’s? Probably not developed enough to seriously impact them, but probably able to fill America’s void once the bubble action has died down. America is pretty fucked in general, so it isn’t so much AI in particular, but rather a ghost economy.

  Something based on imaginary stocks, grift, de-industrialization, ghost jobs and falsified labor statistics, likely mixed with a debased dollar, just doesn’t bode well.

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  • vurr@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    What a shitty take. Imagine betting on something with a poor human rights record and countless privacy violation. America may have it’s faults, but it will get ironed out like it always does. I’m hoping for everybody’s sake that China doesn’t become the new global superpower. America has the soft power thing down to the t at least.

    As for the other claims you made, source?

    In my humble opinion Bush kind of fucked America up, but that is fixable.

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    • SabinStargem@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      Dude. I live in the US, and would like it to be a super-awesome place that genuinely leads the world in morality and prosperity. Unfortunately, my nation has been going down the toilet. If you haven’t noticed, things like ICE’s raid on Hyundai, the undeclared war and crimes upon Venuzela, over 1,800 people disappeared from Alligator Alcatraz, Mike Johnson refusing to open congress, and other bouts of malicious stupidity are very bad signs for the future.

      In any case, I don’t like China, but it is likely to be a superpower for awhile until India or someone else takes the crown. The crown was America’s to lose, and I am pretty sure we are losing it.

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  • Muffi@programming.dev ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Most of the European digital infrastructure is caught in the web of Microsoft, and will be pulled down with it when Microsoft inevitably lose their bets on AI.

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    • 1984@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      Pulled down how? They will just keep using office or azure or whatever. No changes.

      Seems to me that the stock may drop 20% but otherwise, what consequences will it really have?

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    • Axolotl_cpp@feddit.it ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      Europe should focus mlre on using mivrosoft, google and amazon (european) alternatives

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  • Tollana1234567@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    even if chinas AI doesnt work out, they probably do a slow deliberate fall, orchestrated by the ccp. much like they did with the evergrande ponzi scheme.

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  • Gorilladrums@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Something based on imaginary stocks, grift, de-industrialization, ghost jobs and falsified labor statistics, likely mixed with a debased dollar, just doesn’t bode well.

    This is literally describes China, what are you even talking about?

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    • SabinStargem@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      It is a matter of degree. While China has issues, America’s is much worse across the board.

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• ImmersiveMatthew@sh.itjust.works ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  It is a gamble for sure against innovation and a blind one too. I say this as it is clear right now that scaling up LLMs while very effective at substantially improving many AI metrics, it really did not have much impact on logic. I have been calling this the Cognitive Gap and it is really holding back AI.

  Clearly the big LLM companies do not have a solution to this gap despite efforts like the reasoning models and that likely means we need an entirely different tech to front end LLMs or replace them.

  This begs the question…who has a line of sight on how to scale up logic and the answer as near as I can tell is no one right now. Maybe there is something in a lab somewhere, or even with just a small team or individual, but it is not presently visible. It could come out any day now and make all those Data Center investments worthwhile or may take years before we see the Cognitive Gap close which will really make those same Data Centers completely out of alignment with the value they bring.

  Shorting the AI industry is a roll of the dice, but less so than the blind investments still happening in Data Centres despite no clear path to improve logic and close the Cognitive Gap. In fact shorting seems like the safer bet.

  Going to be interesting as if the Cognative Gap is not closed for years to come, those Data Center investments are never going to pay off as the value will just not be there. The entire USA economy is tied to AI it seems right now so the roll of the dice is perhaps the biggest risk / reward in history.

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  • unit327@lemmy.zip ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    And even if they solve some problems with AI and make them smarter, they still have to solve the “actually making a profit” problem to justify these share prices. LLMs already have some use at their current level, but certainly not for the price they’d need to charge to break even, let alone actually making a profit. If they double the smarts but double the training and/or inference cost, they’ll still end up in the same place.

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    • ImmersiveMatthew@sh.itjust.works ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      I read a stat that if the true costs of AI was past onto users it would 42 times more expensive or something along those lines. Who know the right number, but it is obviously out of alignment with the value AI is able to bring today. Imagine instead of $20 / month it was $840 / month to just break even.

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• ShinkanTrain@lemmy.ml ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Now if it never pops at least it’s funny that he lost a bunch of money

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• duplexsystem@lemmy.blahaj.zone ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  I do think there is an AI bubble, but “guy who bets against things, bets against the latest thing”

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  • bampop@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    It’s like the dotcom bubble. Everyone got all excited thinking the internet would be the next big thing, change the world, revolutionize the way we do business. And it did. But not without a lot of hot air and snake oil getting sold along the way.

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    • fodor@lemmy.zip ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      Not really comparable, maybe. This is more scam and less substance… There is no definition of “AI”, is there? If you bring up the fundamental problems with genAI, they just pivot to expert systems. Classic scam artistry. They know they’re selling hot air, promising digital workers that are already complete failures.

      Of course computers will continue to be used in various ways … Just like we’ve seen since 1951, right?

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• Clent@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  A billion dollar bet against a trillion dollar bubble. Cute.

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  • Semi_Hemi_Demigod@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    That really depends on how much money he has.

    I could t afford to bet a thousand bucks against it.

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• Alpha71@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  I ddon;t follow the AI bubble trend at all. But I have been seeing alot of videos all of a sudden, popping up in my recommended talking about it. Who knows.

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  • BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    I don’t follow the AI bubble trend at all

    It was relevant to your noticing how prevalent it is getting.

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  • BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    I just saw a TV commercial for a special series the local news is doing on traffic issues, and they used several quick background graphics, and at least one quick film clip that were obviously AI-generated.

    You can argue over the appropriateness of AI, but most people would agree that it doesn’t belong anywhere near a news broadcast. If you don’t have footage, it is highly unethical to create footage to juice up your news reports.

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    • unit327@lemmy.zip ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      It’s only pervasive because the AI companies are losing money on every generated token while burning investor money to keep the lights on. If people had to pay for what it really costs they’d be using it a lot less.

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    • Alpha71@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      I think you responded to the wrong comment.

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• SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Burry also lost money since 2008 making shorts like Tesla. The Big Shart.

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  • ragas@lemmy.ml ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    I mean, he is not wrong per se, he just had the wong time.

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    • Alpha71@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      …what if he had the Jiang time?

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    • tempest@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      With shorts timing is all that matters.

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  • sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Looks like very mixed returns. Which is what you’d expect from a strategy of betting on areas that are significantly overvalued.

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    • Natanael@infosec.pub ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      The market can remain irrational for longer than you can remain solvent

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• wowwoweowza@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Can’t wait.

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• very_well_lost@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Nvidia down ~8% this week, Palantir down ~10%

  Maybe the needle really is shifting.

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  • ButtermilkBiscuit@feddit.nl ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Maybe, but he’s also been super wrong a bunch of times on his skitzo twitter account so grains of salt and all that. Not saying the guy isn’t smart, clearly called one of the biggest systemic crisis of our times, but he struck gold once and struck out a bunch more often.

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    • kameecoding@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      Because it’s more likely that he got lucky once and his short position was strong enough that he could keep paying the premiums than it is that he is some super genius who knew something noone else knew

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• phoenixz@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with.

  Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars

  Them he’s betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we’re okay with that shit.

  All of this should be illegal as fuck

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  • partial_accumen@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    I’m not sure you understand what this article is or how our markets work.

    The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with. Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars

    He doesn’t have a billion dollars. He’s a hedge fund manager that manages (at least) a billion dollars collectively of other people’s investment money. Its that money he’s betting.

    Them he’s betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we’re okay with that shit.

    No, he’s not. He’s betting against only two companies: Nvidia and Palantir. He has a relatively small bet against Nvidia ($187.6 million), and HUGE bet against Palantir ($912 million). I’m not sure I’d bet against Nvidia yet, but Palantir is co-founded by Peter Theil, trump’s deputy chief of staff which job has a large influence on White House policy. If you ever watched the TV show The West Wing, this would be the Josh Lyman character’s job.

    We already know trump’s favor swings widely and if politics are going against trump (as recent news show) then its not unbelievable that Theil might get the boot or at least trump would punish Theil by killing lucrative government contracts to buy Palantir services.

    All of this should be illegal as fuck, and this guy belongs in a jail cell

    The point of shorting a stock exists so that the market can express a view that they believe a stock will fail. This is an important “canary in the coal mine” for the rest of the market. The other option is a policy that you can’t criticize a company with any meaning and investors continue to put money into failing/risky companies without this important indication of the risk.

    Frankly I don’t like your idea of jailing someone that says “The emperor has no clothes”.

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    • burntbacon@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      I had to go check just to be sure, but you’re confusing peter thiel, the boogeyman behind such lovely individuals as vance, with stephen miller, the boogeyman behind some of the worst of this administration’s vile acts against anyone less white than banana pudding.

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  • owsei@programming.dev ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Them he’s betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we’re okay with that shit.

    Why should someone not be able to short some stock? The AI bubble will burst anyway.

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• Bebopalouie@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Market is so fake and manipulated that I no longer have any interest in investing in it. Like always for decades now it is a transfer to the wealthy system.

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  • 1984@lemmy.today ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Whats the alternative?

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    • Bebopalouie@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      I am just a plebe and have very little financial experience. No idea.

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• echodot@feddit.uk ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won’t burst? Keeping it going will require in ever-increasing amounts of money to paper over the gaping chasms that keep cropping up, and eventually the amount of money necessary to keep it going will cease to be feasible. Then, after taking gullible investor for all of they’ve got, the whole thing will fall over in the world’s most well deserved and predictable market crash.

  The subprime mortgage collapse was inevitable only in hindsight, you had to have a good understanding of the market to see it in advance. To see the level of corruption and false promises that have to be made in order to make the mortgage bubble possible. But everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open, I’m not talking about the “how many Rs are in strawberry” questions either, I can sort of see why that’s not really a fair question. I’m talking about the fact that every single business that has ever tried to replace its employees with AI, has always failed, and failed almost immediately. Even Amazon couldn’t make it work.

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• FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  My plan is to stay invested until dividends hit in December, and then I’m going to evaluate moving my investments into a money market or bonds. Amazon’s numbers show that consumers are still buying, and my assumption is that consumer spending will hold off the pop for now.

  I 100% expect a massive crash, and when it’s just seven companies propping up an entire economy, the pop is going to be very bad. I’d rather lose a little value in the short term than have my portfolio drop to a calamitous degree and have to wait 5-10 years for it to recover.

  *not a FA, just my personal plan

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• melsaskca@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  I don’t like or trust the stock market and all of the back door manipulations that can, and have, been done, but this guy is not wrong.

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• ICastFist@programming.dev ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  his fund, Scion Asset Management, bought $187.6 million in puts on Nvidia and $912 million in puts on Palantir (…) Palantir’s market cap is also up over 150 percent year-to-date. Its current valuation is upwards of 200 times its forward earnings, spreading fears that it may be grossly overvalued.

  He knows which one is more likely to get really fucked in this bubble and it’s not the shovel seller

  Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse.

  Can we assume his puts aren’t for 2026, but at least 2028 or later?

  As CNN points out, Burry’s track record isn’t perfect. For instance, he called in January 2023 to “sell” in a now infamous tweet

  Something something irrational solvent something

  Palantir CEO Alex Karp: “The two companies he’s shorting are the ones making all the money,”

  One of the companies is making all the money and it’s not Palantir.

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