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The Big Short Guy Just Bet $1 Billion That the AI Bubble Pops

⁨884⁩ ⁨likes⁩

Submitted ⁨⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago⁩ by ⁨tonytins@pawb.social⁩ to ⁨technology@lemmy.world⁩

https://futurism.com/artificial-intelligence/big-short-michael-burry-1-billion-ai-bubble

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  • Eyedust@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    If I had to make a guess, I say it probably will. The convenience of AI is probably here to stay, but the craze of replacing everything with AI will go out the door.

    AI will become exactly what it should have been in the first place: an assistant. Not your friend, not your doctor, not your therapist, not a replacement for artists/authors/programmers, and not inside every piece of tech post 2025. It has a place. That place is over-embellished right now, not to mention unsustainable.

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    • halcyoncmdr@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      It will definitely burst, and might take out some fairly large companies with it. Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst. One or two companies will end up with the IP all of them are “building” and it will fizzle into the background of daily use just like the previous assistants like Alexa, Cortana, etc. have.

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      • SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst.

        Please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft.

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      • Eyedust@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Agreed. Probably where it should have stayed in the first place. Not that its not interesting, just that the scope of AI has widened beyond what it should have.

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      • neukenindekeuken@sh.itjust.works ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Depends on when the bust happens. If its in the current admin? All those tech companies are getting bailed out.

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      • Venator@lemmy.nz ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        the real danger is it will cause another great depression when it pops…

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      • makyo@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        I am having trouble seeing how OpenAI survives without investment cash. What exactly is their moat? I know they are hoping to power the AI behind everyone else’s tech but that is more and more untenable as the others develop AI models of their own.

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    • Perspectivist@feddit.uk ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      Just a reminder that the term “AI” stands for a category of systems that contains a lot more than just LLMs.

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      • webghost0101@sopuli.xyz ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Sir, this is the stock market.

        People order with their feelings, not facts.

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      • Eyedust@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        True, true. In this context I mean the LLM craze. The GPU era of AI.

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    • freebee@sh.itjust.works ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      Main reason it can flourish as assistant in the first place is that Google search engine became shit

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      • Nollij@sopuli.xyz ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        It’s not that Google’s algorithms got bad, but the entire Internet turned to shit and they can’t compensate for it.

        For anytime not time-sensitive, try adding “before:2023” to your search. I’m being the quality of your results will skyrocket.

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    • Truscape@lemmy.blahaj.zone ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      Dotcom groundhog day for the tech sector.

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    • RiverRabbits@lemmy.blahaj.zone ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      “convenience”? You mean CEOs being able to lay off workers with some magical technology that does nothing? Yeah, that’s surely convenient for the 0.1% of people in the world that doesn’t affect. Love that “convenience” for them.

      Did it cup your balls during the last BJ or something? Fucking hell, what is it with randos on the web scaping for AI at every instance…

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      • SorryQuick@lemmy.ca ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Are you trying to deny that AI is also convenient for regular people?

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      • Eyedust@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Friend saw ‘convenience’ and that was it. No more reading, only fists. I thought I was quite neutral. Yes, convenience. I have been known to use a local LLM based on recipes to give me ideas what I could make based on my pantry.

        I have a lovely recipe for absolutely delicious chocolate-chip cookies that use pancake mix.

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  • SaraTonin@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    As an aside, you can tell how successful the rebranding of twitter as “x” has been, since even now more than 2 years after the rebranding news articles still have to add “formerly known as twitter” every time they mention it.

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    • NecroticEuphoria@lemmy.ml ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      I still call it Twitter regularly.

      To me, X is a windowing system.

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      • boonhet@sopuli.xyz ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Wayland, formerly known as Twitter

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      • realitista@lemmus.org ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Xitter is the proper rebrand.

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      • wabafee@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        X reminds me of a porn site and the X itself kinda associated for me as X rated.

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      • RaivoKulli@sopuli.xyz ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        To me, X gon give it to ya

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      • Lucidlethargy@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        And x.com is a place people should only go late at night, when they are alone.

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      • Rai@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        I call it “Exxx, the everything app” sarcastically like Liz from TrueAnon does. I never used Twitter but I just find it funny to call it that.

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    • Klowner@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      That dumbass throwing away the Twitter brand for a damn letter should be proof enough to anyone that he’s a moron

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      • Jack_Burton@lemmy.ca ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        It blew my mind when he announced it. Brand recognition is one of the most important things companies hope for, and Twitter was in it’s own, very select brand recognition club at the top. Tweeting became part of everyday vernacular, in the same way that googling something became synonomous with searching online. It’s a company’s wet dream. No one says “gramming”, “threading”, “facebooking”, etc. Maybe Snapchat has snapping, I’m out of the loop but even I’ve used tweeting/ed in every day conversations.

        That recognition is the stupidest thing to just throw away, especially to replace it with something that can’t replace it from a language perspective. Xing makes no sense in context.

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    • tja@sh.itjust.works ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      But I also still call it Facebook and Google

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      • perspectiveshifting@sh.itjust.works ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Those are changes in parent company names though while the services Facebook and Google still exist. The rebrand of Twitter to X continuing to not stick for people is a much bigger failure on their part than Meta and Alphabet not entering the general zeitgeist.

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    • Perspectivist@feddit.uk ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      Even Grok AI follows up with that reminder when it mentions X.

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  • chunes@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Some guy spending a billion dollars on pretty much nothing makes me deeply uncomfortable. Tax billionaires.

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    • echodot@feddit.uk ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      He famously isn’t rich. He manages the money of the rich, he himself is only well off. This isn’t his money he’s investing, it’s the money of the people he works for. So there’s obviously some market feeling that this is a good bet.

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      • BackgrndNoize@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        He’s a multi millionaire, that’s far more than just well off

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      • merc@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Also, the way short positions work is that the people who are most successful at shorting a stock are the ones who have a megaphone to announce they’ve shorted the stock. They go on as many podcasts, news shows, interviews, etc. as possible to say things are going to crash. Because, the more people who hear about it, the more hesitation there will be to invest, which means the more chances of their prediction coming through.

        So, he’s not just some guy who is betting on the bubble bursting, he’s a guy who is now heavily incentivized to cause the bubble to burst so he can make his investors a lot of money.

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    • cley_faye@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      You must be annoyed A LOT these days. It seems that spending a lot of money on nothing is the latest trend for these people.

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      • dan1101@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        But spending it on their own terms. They would spend $100,000 on lawyers and lobbying to avoid paying $20,000 of new taxes.

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    • sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      Good thing Burry isn’t a billionaire, he’s a fund manager.

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      • Gold_E_Lox@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        true, lucky he is only worth hundreds of millions…

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    • BombOmOm@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      Capital gains are taxed. Profits from this are capital gains.

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  • Pyr_Pressure@lemmy.ca ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    I just phoned a business today that ended up with an “AI receptionist” when they didn’t answer the phone.

    They wanted to take my name down, asked who I was leaving a message for, and then recorded the message…

    My god what a painful process that was. It was absolutely useless. Firstly it got my name wrong, and then the name of the person I was leaving the message for wrong. No “Janet” my name is not Don it’s John, and no I’m not leaving a message for Kim Its for Kam. And then it needs to repeat your entire message back to you in order to make sure it didn’t fuck it up which amazingly the message was probably 95% okay but it was a giant waste of my time when a FUCKIN VOICEMAIL WOULD HAVE SUFFICED

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    • theparadox@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      Had an issue with Comcast today. They forced me to use their Xfinity app, but what I needed to do wasn’t an apparent option within the app. The only option I saw was a support chatbot. The chatbot listed a link to the option I was looking for. The link opened a webview within the Xfinity app, in which there was a link to download the Xfinity app.

      Unnecessary Apps and chat bots. Two of my least favorite things referring me back and forth, forever, in an endless loop.

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      • Tollana1234567@lemmy.today ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        comcast is probably the worst cs, plus they always trying to pedal you shit.

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      • burntbacon@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        referring me back and forth, forever, in an endless loop

        Just like they intended.

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    • Tollana1234567@lemmy.today ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      an online store, for games used a fully AI agent as a CS, it was giving them the run around, till i kept asking about escalting it, finally it was able to either contact them shortly or through email.

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    • PokerChips@programming.dev ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      I’m reading along and I’m im like, “yep that’s dumb and that’s dumb, and that’s dumb. Yep that’s dumb and that’s dumb too.”

      Then I read the last 7 words and, “Oof… yeah that is REALLY FUCKING DUMB”

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  • echodot@feddit.uk ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won’t burst? Keeping it going will require in ever-increasing amounts of money to paper over the gaping chasms that keep cropping up, and eventually the amount of money necessary to keep it going will cease to be feasible. Then, after taking gullible investor for all of they’ve got, the whole thing will fall over in the world’s most well deserved and predictable market crash.

    The subprime mortgage collapse was inevitable only in hindsight, you had to have a good understanding of the market to see it in advance. To see the level of corruption and false promises that have to be made in order to make the mortgage bubble possible. But everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open, I’m not talking about the “how many Rs are in strawberry” questions either, I can sort of see why that’s not really a fair question. I’m talking about the fact that every single business that has ever tried to replace its employees with AI, has always failed, and failed almost immediately. Even Amazon couldn’t make it work.

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    • silasmariner@programming.dev ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      I think the idea is that, whilst shorting, you get squeezed. The question is not ‘if’ but ‘when’ and if it takes too long and you’re $1B deep you can lose your shirt

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      • DragonTypeWyvern@midwest.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Yep. The market can stay irrational etc

        The thing is though as long as it goes down that’s usually all you need. You don’t need a total collapse.

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    • CrabAndBroom@lemmy.ml ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      I think, AI quality aside, it’s mostly a matter of timing - IMO the AI bubble is obviously going to pop, NVIDIA’s market cap is now 16% of the entire US GDP and OpenAI is trying to IPO at a trillion dollars, which seem like ludicrous numbers to me. But I learned from the last few years that you can also never really underestimate society’s ability to just say fuck it and kick the can even further down the road.

      And of course, SOMETHING is going to have to be the final straw that brings it all down, and it could very well be this. But I also didn’t think we’d get this far - the 2008 crisis didn’t do it, COVID somehow didn’t do it, but these things are are also all compounding as we don’t deal with them properly. And if AI is going to be the last straw, how long can we put it off for? Could it pop next year or can we still hold it off for another decade with even more ludicrous number-fuckery? I think that’s where the trick is going to be.

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      • sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        The market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent.

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      • aesthelete@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        And if AI is going to be the last straw, how long can we put it off for? Could it pop next year or can we still hold it off for another decade with even more ludicrous number-fuckery? I think that’s where the trick is going to be.

        The thing that boggles my mind in all of this is the possibility that Trump installs some absolute tool bag in at the Fed and then just has the federal reserve bail out all of the bad investments. It’d mean probably hyperinflation, but who cares about normal shmucks trying to live a life? It’s much more important to pay the genius, scammy billionaires so they can keep their mega yachts gassed and assed.

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    • rekabis@lemmy.ca ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      everyone can see the AI BS right out in the open

      To me it is four things in particular:

      1. How AI use erodes skills in the subject AI is being used to assist in. This is a 100% occurrence, from software developers to radiologists.
      2. How AI use shuts down critical thinking, and makes users more stupid. This is a 100% occurrence, and has been clearly demonstrated by MRI scans of the prefrontal cortex.
      3. How AI use makes the user slower. This is the only user point that is not 100%, as only less than 2% of the most senior and skilled users show a slight increase in work completed… after more than 12 months of using AI. Projections have been made on the other 98%, and over 90% of them will never work faster with AI than without it, regardless of training or experience.
      4. The gratuitous hallucinations, which are only increasing in scope and severity with every AI generation. It arises entirely from the constraints the AI are rewarded with - providing no answer is weighted just as negatively as a wrong answer - and anywhere from 60-80% of all responses are hallucinatory in some fashion, depending on the current model.

      In prior generations, any industry with such performance would be laughed clear out of the boardroom.

      But because capitalism is desperately seeking a solution to what they perceive as a problem - how to obtain labour without having to pay said labour - AI is being adopted hand-over-fist.

      After all, the underlying purpose of AI is to allow wealth to access skill while removing from the skilled the ability to access wealth.

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      • tonytins@pawb.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Ugh… Minor rant.

        My aunt is into tech like me. She dived head first into the AI in the middle of the hype instead of during IoT era when machine learning (the foundation of modern GPT models today) was part of a larger SDK for building smaller tasks. Now she won’t stop pushing it onto my mom like a salesman by saying she should do this and that with ChatGPT or whatever, and it’s so freakin’ annoying.

        Luckily, I’ve told my mom straight up to buy into it.

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      • OsmerusMordax@sh.itjust.works ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Do you have references for these claims? I believe you, but I’d like to know more.

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      • AnyOldName3@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        Investors have been happy to incentivise companies to hire idiot CEOs and managers who say the right buzzwords but reduce output by making bad decisions and only hiring people who don’t think they’re bad decisions, so an automated buzzword-dispensing idiot isn’t necessarily going to seem to investors like a downgrade compared to what they think most workers are. They’re just as likely to think AI lets them invest in companies where even the lowest tier employees are potential CEO material, and continue not noticing that the per-employee efficiency keeps going down. Data showing that layoffs nearly never pay for themselves doesn’t stop stock prices soaring whenever one happens, so I wouldn’t expect data showing AI makes companies less profitable to stop stock prices going up when a company announces a new dumb way they’ll use it.

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      • iAvicenna@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

        All this you listed is the reason why we are fucked if we keep depending more and more on “this” AI and don’t get a revolution in the AI field to replace the current one with AGI. Because in ten years we risk losing a big chunk of expertise and if we don’t have an AI that can really replace the current one with something that can actually replace experts then there will huge infrastructure problems across multiple industries.

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    • Juice@midwest.social ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      inevitable only in hindsight

      I’m not so sure. I’m still friends with a guy who told me emphatically “you dont understand what we did, we destroyed the global economy” and then explained the whole subprime mortgage scam to me, back in like 2007. Lots of downstream businesses, new home builders, paint and drywall companies, building materials stores, started folding several months before the official crash as well. I wasn’t nearly as aware of things then, I was a grown adult but not yet 30 and with little formal education, but there were definitely huge flashing signs. Only the media, based 100% on the words of the banks and insurance companies, thought that a crash was undetectable.

      I’m not sure quite what it would look like yet, but I’m willing to bet if you look where these data centers are being built, when the cash runs out to keep the whole scam afloat, these big companies will stop paying their bills. The smaller companies providing services and supplies will run out of money before the huge mega corpos start showing signs, so that is one of the metrics I’m watching closely. I just happen to live in the shadow of these data centers so I’ll be pretty close to it, that is if I’m right.

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    • partial_accumen@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      The fact that he was even able to make that bet is incredible. How deluded do you have to be to think the AI bubble won’t burst?

      Nobody believes the AI investment/growth trajectory we have right now will continue for infinity. What nobody knows is: when the correction will occur.

      • Do you pull your investments out now and sit on the sidelines waiting for the fallout while your principal loses value daily from inflation?
      • What does the correction look like when it happens? Does all the value evaporate on day 1, the first week, a month? This is important to figure out for this strategy to know when to go back in.

      This is the info/decisions you’d need as an average investor. What Burry is doing is the riskiest type of investments with shorting the market. If growth continue to occur he and his fund will have to pay for the growth to those whose shares he borrowed to short.

      In summary, its not enough to know that a bubble exists, but to profit from it you have to figure out when it will burst and when the full burst is done.

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    • DeathsEmbrace@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      Rich dumbasses found a place to waste all their money instead of the government taxing them and using that money for important things they let them waste it on some climate change accelerator

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    • unit327@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      Everyone can see it coming, but they believe the AI companies’ hype that the AGI breakthrough will be here “soon”. Which if actually true, might be worth the bet.

      For my money they either hit AGI and then we all die, or there is a crash before that. Yay.

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  • frustrated@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Well yeah. Sam Altman just came out and basically said he needs a few trillion dollars and government backed loans. This shit is going to be BAD.

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  • Kissaki@feddit.org ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse. His fund rose a whopping 489 percent when the market did subsequently fall apart in 2008.

    We may have to wait for another three years.

    I looked into the article to find out how long a timeframe he is betting. Unfortunately, it does not say.

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    • bryndos@fedia.io ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      You'd think the timing should reflect the typical terms of loans and loan volumes - so that sounds plausible.
      When the default rate of those loans begins to creep up and become notable to investors, then people will get edgy.

      I just hope it comes before our much loved and overpaid layers of incompetent management have destroyed all their manual production processes and replaced them with snake oil. If not a general economic downturn might start well before the ai bubble bursts.

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    • merc@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      We may have to wait for another three years.

      Which is also a clue that he isn’t short selling.

      There are two ways of making money when a stock goes down. One is to sell the stock short. The other is to buy a put option.

      A short sale is extremely risky. Say the shares are at $50 and you think they’re going to go down, so you sell 1000 shares you don’t own (short selling) and agree to buy them back by some date in the future. If you’re right and the stock tanks to $20, you can buy the shares and pocket $30,000. But, if the stock doesn’t sink, you might have to buy the shares for $60 each, so you lose $10 per stock, or $10,000. If there are tons of people shorting the stock, you can get a short squeeze, where everybody needs to buy shares to close out their short position, and because everybody needs to buy, the stock price rockets up, so you get people having to buy a stock that used to be $50 for $200, leading to $150,000 in losses for a 1000 share short where the maximum possible gain was only $50,000.

      An option is much safer. There you’re buying the option to sell the shares at a certain price at some time in the future. Say you think a stock is going to crash. It’s currently trading at $50/share. You can buy 1000 put options at a strike price of $40 with a date 1 month in the future. It will cost you something to buy those options, say $1 per share, so $1000. If the stock goes up or stays at $50, your bet didn’t work out. You don’t have to sell the shares, you just tear up the options contract. You’re out whatever you paid for the option, say $1000 here. But, say the stock tanks and it’s now at $20/share. Now your bet did pay off. You can buy 1000 shares at $20 each for $20,000, then immediately exercise your option and sell them for $40,000, netting you $20,000. With put options the upside is significantly smaller, but the potential downside is tiny. It’s just the cost of the options.

      Someone predicting a crash within 3 years isn’t going to short sell the shares. Between now and then the shares could continue to rise for a while, and they’d be on the hook for a huge payout in that case. If they buy options the down side is much smaller. They may have to re-buy new options a bunch of times. But in the worst case they just have to let the options expire unused and eat whatever cost they paid for them.

      For the coming AI crash, I don’t think it will be very soon. I think there will be a crash. But, I think the government will try to keep the bubble from bursting. Too much of the US economy is now invested in AI. So, even under Biden, or Harris, or Obama they’d try to prevent a catastrophic crash by using taxpayer money to prevent the most damaging bubble burst. With Trump, there’s going to be even more government interference in the market. His backers are crypto bros. They’re the ones making him billions on his meme coins. They bankrolled JD Vance’s political career. If they demand that he rescues their failing companies, he’ll do it. And, since the GOP does whatever Trump wants, they’ll just fork over literal trillions in taxpayer dollars to keep things from crashing. But, eventually there will have to be a crash, because there’s just not a sustainable business model in any of this, at least not at anything like the current scale.

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    • three_trains_in_a_trenchcoat@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      How the hell did he do a long term bet against the market? Aren’t shorts short-term and they’re forced to pay after a set period of time? Even the inverse indexes will steadily make your money simply vanish.

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    • someacnt@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      It is interesting that stocks began going down though. Whether it continues, we should see.

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    • Nomad@infosec.pub ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      A short is not only a bet on a direction but also a timing issue. You need to know roughly how long (time) to keep the option.

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  • very_well_lost@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Nvidia down ~8% this week, Palantir down ~10%

    Maybe the needle really is shifting.

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    • ButtermilkBiscuit@feddit.nl ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      Maybe, but he’s also been super wrong a bunch of times on his skitzo twitter account so grains of salt and all that. Not saying the guy isn’t smart, clearly called one of the biggest systemic crisis of our times, but he struck gold once and struck out a bunch more often.

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  • Tattorack@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Yay, yet another once in a lifetime financial crisis.

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    • horn_e4_beaver@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

      Capitalism is the only way ;)

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  • Toneswirly@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Its not a question of “if” but “when.”

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    • Tramort@programming.dev ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      and whether he has enough liquidity to maintain his margin during absolutely insane market distortions by hedge funds, big banks, and the government.

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  • Credibly_Human@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    This is in a category I’d like to call hopebait. People so badly wish things they feel are bad simply stopped themselves, that they’ll upvote anything that appears to confirm this.

    In this instance, there is nothing of substance in this article to suggest the end of anything is anywhere near in sight.

    One guy, who makes bets constantly, made another bet.

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  • bignate31@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    I’ve got a problem with articles like this: “The guy who got it right once is betting a second time he’s going to get it right”. and then the article continues: “Even though he’s got it wrong a bunch of times since, he got it right that one time… So this has gotta be his second time!!”

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  • SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Burry also lost money since 2008 making shorts like Tesla. The Big Shart.

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  • SabinStargem@lemmy.today ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    My money is on the American bubble popping. China would do just fine. As to Europe’s? Probably not developed enough to seriously impact them, but probably able to fill America’s void once the bubble action has died down. America is pretty fucked in general, so it isn’t so much AI in particular, but rather a ghost economy.

    Something based on imaginary stocks, grift, de-industrialization, ghost jobs and falsified labor statistics, likely mixed with a debased dollar, just doesn’t bode well.

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  • kljafgg9r0@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    What does his height have to do with anything? Are we body shaming?

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  • phoenixz@lemmy.ca ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    The simple fact that somebody was able even to bet a billion is insanity that should never be possible to begin with.

    Nobody should have a billion dollars, let alone have so much that you can just safely bet a billion dollars

    Them he’s betting.yhst the economy will crash, basically, and we’re okay with that shit.

    All of this should be illegal as fuck

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  • Twongo@lemmy.ml ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    since his bet on the housing market he effectively lost money. all the public things he made can also be safety investments in case his secret hedgefund stuff he doesn’t have to disclose fails.

    • this is what an ex-financebro told me yesterday

    i LOVE LOVE LOVE the thought of the AI Bubble popping… but i don’t think this MF is the guy to trust

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  • ook@discuss.tchncs.de ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Good

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  • OctopusNemeses@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Has anyone else noticed the recent resurgence of mechanical turk jobs? It’s all AI training work. Before the work was doing tasks directly. Now they have people training tailored AI models.

    In other words the tech bros have found get another way to shoehorn themselves in as a middle man. Instead of having workers do the work itself. Now the work is delegated to AI. Which is trained to do the task by humans.

    At first it said the LLM era was the end of mechanical turk work. It’s going in a circle back to mechanical turks again.

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  • FosterMolasses@leminal.space ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    There’s an AI bubble?

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  • Fizz@lemmy.nz ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    I may be wrong but i thought this guy was not at all a respected investor and only made 1 good trade. So his opinion is kinda worthless.

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  • FlashMobOfOne@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    My plan is to stay invested until dividends hit in December, and then I’m going to evaluate moving my investments into a money market or bonds. Amazon’s numbers show that consumers are still buying, and my assumption is that consumer spending will hold off the pop for now.

    I 100% expect a massive crash, and when it’s just seven companies propping up an entire economy, the pop is going to be very bad. I’d rather lose a little value in the short term than have my portfolio drop to a calamitous degree and have to wait 5-10 years for it to recover.

    *not a FA, just my personal plan

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  • Bebopalouie@lemmy.ca ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Market is so fake and manipulated that I no longer have any interest in investing in it. Like always for decades now it is a transfer to the wealthy system.

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  • duplexsystem@lemmy.blahaj.zone ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    I do think there is an AI bubble, but “guy who bets against things, bets against the latest thing”

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  • ICastFist@programming.dev ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    his fund, Scion Asset Management, bought $187.6 million in puts on Nvidia and $912 million in puts on Palantir (…) Palantir’s market cap is also up over 150 percent year-to-date. Its current valuation is upwards of 200 times its forward earnings, spreading fears that it may be grossly overvalued.

    He knows which one is more likely to get really fucked in this bubble and it’s not the shovel seller

    Burry similarly made a long-term $1 billion bet from 2005 onwards against the US mortgage market, anticipating its collapse.

    Can we assume his puts aren’t for 2026, but at least 2028 or later?

    As CNN points out, Burry’s track record isn’t perfect. For instance, he called in January 2023 to “sell” in a now infamous tweet

    Something something irrational solvent something

    Palantir CEO Alex Karp: “The two companies he’s shorting are the ones making all the money,”

    One of the companies is making all the money and it’s not Palantir.

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  • Sam_Bass@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    If he needs a straight pin to pop it I can send him a couple

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  • HertzDentalBar@lemmy.blahaj.zone ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Now I most definitely don’t want it to pop 🤣 moreso because the reality is the bubble popping doesn’t hurt them it only hurts all the idiots who spent their meager earnings on this shit.

    The rich never suffer, other than having to buy the smaller yacht.

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  • drmoose@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    has bet over $1 billion that the share prices of AI chipmaker Nvidia and software company Palantir will fall

    not a very tough bet to make tbh

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  • Clent@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    A billion dollar bet against a trillion dollar bubble. Cute.

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  • Alpha71@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    I ddon;t follow the AI bubble trend at all. But I have been seeing alot of videos all of a sudden, popping up in my recommended talking about it. Who knows.

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