I’m willing go bet a lot of people making weird bets like this are doing the equivalent of insider trading. The whole concept of betting on random news is ripe for the opportunity for people with insider knowledge to always win big off of the losses of gambling addicts.
Insider trading, but make it worse
Submitted 3 weeks ago by andros_rex@lemmy.world to aboringdystopia@lemmy.world
https://lemmy.world/pictrs/image/047d7f94-daf5-493b-87dd-78e84ab0f859.jpeg
Comments
ZoteTheMighty@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
plyth@feddit.org 3 weeks ago
That’s the point of those platforms, to bribe the people with that knowledge to reveal it.
ronl2k@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
What would happen to those platforms if governments and rich people deliberately made a bunch of $35k bets that were designed to never win, making all the copycat gamblers lose?
Artisian@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Which, fwiw, night be a feature not a downside? Transparency if the fact is juicy enough.
bdonvr@thelemmy.club 3 weeks ago
Yeah unlike sports where at least the games are ostensibly fair, heavily scrutinized, and managed by organizations that try to stop this. Even then it still happens sometimes.
This system is just completely unenforceable insanity.
cheesybuddha@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Of course it is and the creators know that. But it’s profitable
Mulligrubs@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
This is the least of it. Representatives entire families are set for life. Somehow, everybody in their family gets stinking rich after election, and their book is always a “NYTimes best seller” because they are bought by the campaign (and dumped in a landfill), insider trading is rampant.
I’m okay with someone in the military picking up some extra cash. Family has to eat, whether government is “shut down” or not. I hope it was some smart ass buck private.
In the USA politics is the number three easiest way to achieve “financial security”, only inheritors and prosperity gospel preachers have it easier.
Serinus@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
It’s not fucking military leaking unless they came in with Drunk Pete Hegseth.
Alcoholicorn@mander.xyz 3 weeks ago
*Pete Kegsbreath
huquad@lemmy.ml 3 weeks ago
400k seems relatively low for the usual scum. Could be a lower rank military personnel, or a staffer.
Transform2942@lemmy.ml 3 weeks ago
Yeah, the bet was only 32k. Honestly surprising more people didn’t have this idea
cabillaud@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Or a team of them
Hotzilla@sopuli.xyz 3 weeks ago
This is huge opsec issue from now on. Basically you can start seeing military operations before they happen.
huquad@lemmy.ml 3 weeks ago
Has been for a while now. One of my buddies works in military intelligence. He combs social media for soldier whereabouts to inform military ops.
Walk_blesseD@piefed.blahaj.zone 3 weeks ago
Can we all go on polymarket and start a betting pool that Peter Thiel will not be violently assassinated by the end of the year?
bunchberry@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Bad people don’t die. The more evil you absorb the longer you live. Like Kissinger living to 100.
SoleInvictus@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 weeks ago
I suspect it’s the lack of stress due to being a sociopath. Not caring about others has to make life pretty easy in some respects.
UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Bad people don’t die
Selection bias. Bad people die all the time, and then we forget about them (or never learn about them) because they stop being in the spotlight.
Nobody talks about the Koch Brothers or the Waltons anymore, as they’ve degraded to irrelevance. Nobody talks about the Carnegies or Fords or Hoovers anymore, for the same reason.
Steve Jobs was an evil fuck and he’s gone now, so he’s off the radar.
Meanwhile, nobody had Lucky Palmer pegged as a sociopath ten years ago and now he’s doing James Bond Villain tier war crimes.
TheOakTree@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
BoycottTwitter@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
There are exceptions to the rule for example Rush Limbaugh and maybe Scott Adams.
SaharaMaleikuhm@feddit.org 3 weeks ago
Do I vote for or against to make it more likely?
SlurpingPus@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
The one who bets for collects the money if that happens. They would also benefit from actually carrying out the deed. These markets are essentially crowdfunding for dirty stuff.
UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
You can, but you’re going to want to have him in your sights before you place the bet
randoot@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
You have to be an idiot to gamble at these sites. I already feel like an idiot for having money in the stock market with all the insider trading, but thanks to inflation you’re fucked if you do and fucked if you don’t.
Teppichbrand@feddit.org 3 weeks ago
The stock market is a global suicide machine, change my mind
nandeEbisu@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
It’s a ponzi scheme supporting millions of people’s retirements, myself included.
Ideally we have social security, which is a much more regulated and carefully managed ponzi scheme but the people in power use it like a piggy bank because it’s not like they’re going to be around when it runs dry.
Transform2942@lemmy.ml 3 weeks ago
Good Take
SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca 3 weeks ago
Gambling is for idiots, so it works out.
TheReturnOfPEB@reddthat.com 3 weeks ago
Unless you had an active decision in orr were privy to the making the attack happen.
Buddahriffic@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
The fact that you end up potentially gambling against insiders like this is one thing that makes these bet on anything sites so dumb to interact with in the first place. Which also makes me not really care about this particular grift.
explodicle@sh.itjust.works 3 weeks ago
IMHO there ought to be a peer-to-peer version so we can buy Trump Insurance without getting fucked from above.
NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Gambling on something like this is definitely risky, but it’s not as risky if you’re using it to bet on sometimes more defined like sports.
If someone is going to rig the game, then it’s now rigged for all people better on that game at all locations, not just here.
And at a decentralized platform like this, that should ultimately be safer than the alternatives.
Noite_Etion@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
When there is no punishment, the system is working perfectly.
RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
TIL there’s a website where anyone can bet on anything.
CosmicTurtle0@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 weeks ago
What?! What are the odds?!
KyuubiNoKitsune@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 weeks ago
Put me down for a tenner
atropa@piefed.social 3 weeks ago
Look for trumps dead bet
RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Ooh, without even looking I suspect it’s close to even?
Syndication@lemmy.today 3 weeks ago
Ever since “Predictive markets” were made legal in 2015 has unfortunately made gambling much more degenerate in the US.
thedeadwalking4242@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
How is this legal
OshagHennessey@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Crime is legal now
thedeadwalking4242@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
I hate that I was primed for a world with rules when there are none.
MoffKalast@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Always has been if you’re rich.
OsrsNeedsF2P@lemmy.ml 3 weeks ago
The real answer is nuanced, but a combination of “it wasn’t, until bribary”, “enforcement is difficult”, “it’s built to be nuanced around regulation”, “it depends where”, and “it’s decentralized”
whoisearth@lemmy.ca 3 weeks ago
Gambling.
It’s disgusting but not necessarily illegal.
theneverfox@pawb.social 3 weeks ago
It’s unrelated gambling to be specific. You can fix the results or have insider knowledge
BigPotato@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
I bet you a dollar that the ratio of votes on your post will be some number by January 11th.
I bet you a dollar that President Trump will not live to see 2037.
We’re just two people making bets here. Anyone want to sidebar on this action?
NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
I’ll make a bet on how many bets you get!
yeather@lemmy.ca 3 weeks ago
Legally they are not betting against the house. People are betting against each other on if a certain event will happen, and the site takes a set percentage for facilitating the bets. This makes it legal under gambling laws in most US States.
NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
It probably can’t be stopped either at this point.
Assuming it was illegal, they could arrest the developers because they are earning money on it, but arresting them and taking the website down won’t stop people from using it as it’s smart contract based on a blockchain.
So now you gotta go after the individuals using it, who could annonymize their funds through something like Tornado Cash, making it pretty hard to stop.
thedeadwalking4242@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
So if I opened a physical casino with let’s say roulette without 00 but a commission charge to play it’s legal?
cheesybuddha@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Well yea, is it not blatantly obvious to everyone that bad actors will use this “bet on anything” bullshit to grift the system?
I’m certain the people who run the websites know this and don’t give a shit, because it’s profitable.
IndustryStandard@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
The weird thing is that it provides OPSEC to US opponents. Simply watch polymarket for a yolo bet
ronl2k@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
This is the most important comment on the issue. It’s pretty much giving US secrets away ahead of time.
NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
You can’t really stop it when you make a decentralized platform like that.
It’s like saying we made cash and we knew people would fund terrorism with it but oh well.
A decentralized betting platform has benefits. It also has detriments.
Any website involved is really just a front end. It’s on the blockchain and can be used regardless of website, but the website definitely makes it easier to use.
cheesybuddha@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Grifting and and inequality is a baked in part of capitalism. I don’t think you can get around it without fundamentally shifting your approach to money
NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Also worth adding…
If the owners do have a way to prevent something, and that was ever compromised (e.g arrested by FBI) and someone was able to just prevent all bets, absolutely nothing is stopping someone else from copying the contracts, removing that ability, and re uploading it.
palmtrees2309@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Polymarket, Kalshi and others are Insider trading systems camoflauged as a “Truth Seeker” but at the end, It is a gamble even worse than a gambling casino. The insider trader has a incentive to stack odds against oneself and “beat” a better likelihood in the market. Even as a truth finder, It works at the last second before the actual reveal.
deHaga@feddit.uk 3 weeks ago
Corrupt politicians are corrupt. More at 11.
UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
This is an interation above simply taking a few hundred stuffed into a potato chip bag.
TheEighthDoctor@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
My question is what are the other predictions
ronl2k@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
what are the other predictions
They don’t matter since they were probably used to hide the insider knowledge of the Maduro kidnapping.
asg101@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 weeks ago
I still want to know who made $$millions shorting American and United Airlines before 9/11.
SaveTheTuaHawk@lemmy.ca 3 weeks ago
It was $5 million, and the money is unclaimed on the Chicago stock exchange.
asg101@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 weeks ago
Someone has to know who placed the order.
homoludens@feddit.org 3 weeks ago
The obvious question is: what other bets did they make? (though those may of course be decoys)
MuskyMelon@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Barron is doing this shit.
daannii@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Can we make a bet on that ?
fox2263@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
How does one bet on random things like this. What’s the website? I have a few predictions of my own…
abcd@feddit.org 3 weeks ago
It seems to be this site: polymarket.com
naeap@sopuli.xyz 3 weeks ago
How does this work?
Who verifies, that a bet is done and which statement was correct?
justsomeguy@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
This is all a sick game
Could be the name of the website. Close your eyes. Walk away from the screen.
antonim@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 weeks ago
What’s sick about that, though? Guy had reliable insider info and made money off a cancerous gambling site. Good for him.
plyth@feddit.org 3 weeks ago
Till Jan 5th or earlier would have been suspicious. Jan 31 is the safe bet. The US had sent a carrier group and some people mentioned that the costs dictate that they had to act within one month.
Darkness343@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
This is just a big Stellaris simulation. It’s just that we haven’t founded the United Nations of Earth and reached the year 2200 yet.
treadful@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
I prefer seeing these as predictive markets than (only) degenerate gambling. They’ve been shown to be pretty accurate in predicting a lot of things. Can be useful crowdsourcing gut checks.
LifeInMultipleChoice@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
What were the vets before it. It’s a dumb bet… but those may point
brianary@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
Why is the date of the post omitted? When was “last night”?
kinther@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Seems sus
roserose56@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
Inside tips! Like with the stocks couple months back? Sit and watch like you always do and our feature will stay the same.
lemmydividebyzero@reddthat.com 3 weeks ago
How does that platform work? Can you still place bets when rockets hit Venezuela? Can you still place bets when people speculate he was already abducted?
Greddan@feddit.org 3 weeks ago
Oh no! Not my unregulated degenerate gambling!