Submitted 2 weeks ago by QuantumSpecter@lemmy.world to technology@lemmy.world
https://mashable.com/article/nvidia-huang-ai-bubble
This is clearly a bubble.
I don’t care if AI is useful, it’s not this useful. And it sure as shit isn’t going to see the returns they expect.
I run an internal multi-user AI app. It plugs into almost everyone’s workflows to make things easier. It costs $1 per day per user in token costs .
You need a trillion people using these apps for the current valuations to make sense.
My guess is they are using the Netflix playbook al over again.
Get you hocked to the extreme convenience, much like a drug addict, and then pump up the price of flood every prompt with ads.
That’s my best case.
Worse case is, that alongside the rising adoption, they will start subrepticialy but effectively modifying general knowledge, thought and behaviour in ways the worst best Marketer would blush about.
then pump up the price or flood every prompt with ads.
“Sure I found that document you needed, and with it, I also found this great new game I know you’ll love. Raid: Shadow Legends, It’s a free to pla…”
I cannot wait for companies spending 300 dollars per user per month for this convenience.
I think the word you’re looking for the is surreptitiously
Get you hooked to the extreme convenience, much like a drug addict, and then pump up the price or flood every prompt with ads.
There is a big difference between “normal” SaaS and LLM.
In a normal SaaS you get a lot of benefit of being at scale. Going from 1000 to 10000 users is not that much harder than going from 10000 to 1000000. Once you have your scaling set up you can just add more servers and/or data centers. But most importantly, the cost per user goes waaay down.
With AI it just doesn’t scale at all, the 500000th user will most likely cost as much as the 5th. So doing a netflix/spotify/etc, I don’t think is going to work unless they can somehow make it a lot cheaper per user. OpenAI fails to turn a profit even on their most expensive tiers.
If it’s this useful, we’re (and they) are fucked too because the economy would collapse under falling aggregate demand due to falling wages and layoffs. The “people will find new jobs” won’t save us from a shift this large without a depression.
I’m struggling to find a scenario in which we are not already fucked. I say we “go for broke” and move on.
I don’t care if AI is useful, it’s not this useful. And it sure as shit isn’t going to see the returns they expect.
And how. Making coders slightly more efficient really just isn’t worth this much. There’s also going to be hell to pay when software created by all of the vibe-coding is found to be full of security holes.
So…
It’s not a bubble because…
“This is the largest infrastructure build-out in human history,” Huang said of active and promised data center projects. "And so the AI bubble is, comes about because the investments are large. And the investments are large, because we have to build the infrastructure necessary for all of the layers of AI above it."
It’s something we’re sinking money into soley because we’ve already been sinking money into it, and we don’t want anyone else to get ahead of us even though literally no one has found a way to monetize it enough to make back prior investments let alone new investments…
Like, he knows that’s literally the definition of an economic bubble, right?
Is he just trying to grift dumb rich investors, or does he legitimately not understand his company could go bankrupt literally at any moment if the investor class ever comes back to reality?
Well nVidia just sells the hardware to the AI companies, so even if the bubble pops, they won’t go bankrupt. They will stop making such obscene amounts of money, but they’re one (also the largest) of the 3 major GPU vendors. Personal computing still would buy from them, as would non-AI datacenters. He wants to keep the bubble going for as long as possible to boost their profits for as long as he can, but as long as people need graphical rendering and parallel compute power, I don’t think nVidia is going anywhere.
Think of them as the guy selling prospectors their tools. They hype everything up and jack up their prices for picks and shovels. When the prospectors don’t find any gold to make their investment back, the shovel guy just goes back to selling shovels at normal rates and prices. Sure, he’s not making as much profit, but he’s still solidly in business.
Well nVidia just sells the hardware to the AI companies, so even if the bubble pops, they won’t go bankrupt.
Except all those companies are in an investor circle jerk with each other…
If AI bursts it doesn’t just hurt nvidia’s sales of products used by AI.
Nvidia has over $100 billion invested in OpenAI:
www.cnbc.com/…/nvidias-investment-portfolio.html
And even more billions invested in other AI companies. Because the AI companies can’t afford to buy what Nvidia is selling at the price.
This means Nvidia “owns” a bunch of those AI companies, and can take loans out on the valuation…
If AI goes bankrupt, all those investments are worthless, which means banks call in the loans that used it as collateral. It could easily wipe out Nvidia.
It’s not just one surface level thing, even tho that’s all you seem to have thought of. You’re worried about a couple hundred million in sales like it’s not sitting next to 100 billion dollar loan.
Like bro, come on man…
Companies involved in large infrastructure build-outs are notoriously safe investments and never, ever, EVER end up with mountains of unservicable debt and a huge surplus of worthless, underutilized infrastructure that doesn’t fulfill any of its promises that inevitably gets sold off for fractions of a penny on the dollar. Except literally almost every fucking large infrastructure build-out anywhere in the world in all of human history.
It doesn’t matter what infrastructure or investments you look at: highways, train tracks, communications, real estate, skyscrapers, power generation, power transmission, oil extraction there are countless examples of greed-blinded companies JUST LIKE HIS doing EXACTLY THE SAME THING and eventually getting absolutely destroyed over it. The larger the infrastructure investment is, the worse it gets. There are only a handful of well-known success stories (which are well known because they are notable, not because they are common), and enough failures to pave a road to the moon and back.
Those who do not learn from history are doomed to repeat it, and I’m pretty sure Jensen Huang was too busy shopping for new leather jackets during history class to be paying any attention.
Don’t get me wrong, I totally agree These motherfuckers would scorch our planet for profit but this… feels different.
Is not a secret a lot of the most influential Billionaires are transhumanists (Elon Musk, Peter Thiel, etc).
But hey, it might as well be a grift to get on board other unsuspecting rich fucks…
Either way, we should put these power hoarding dragons to sleep, soon!
Trans-humanism probably requires a whole lot of failed experimentation first… You’d need a sort of systemic conveyor-belt of test subjects. How are you going to do that? Just rip people off the street under false pretenses?
…
It’s almost like hubris is blinding.
It’s his fiduciary duty to lie to everyone.
That’s how capitalism works, and the fact that the people who have steeped their entire lives in that game don’t see through it is… sad, to say the least…
Sunken cost fallacy. These ceos are nothing more than addicts.
Its not a bubble. A bubble is when you sink billions into something with no payoff. We’ve sunk trillions. Any people aren’t just uninterested, a substantial amount are actively opposed to it. Its not the same thing at all.
A sink-hole then?
Or, if I may: a stink-hole.
Of course they deny that AI is a bubble. Like real estate speculants deny the housing market being a bubble. It simply would be an admission of failure.
Every conman insists his bullshit is real. Honest!
The “damage control” they’re doing clearly isn’t working that well, eh?
"If i deny its existance long enought, it will stop existing!’
I’d rather forgo all of my technology and live like a caveman than use and embrace AI the way these morons want.
The more I learned about packet tracking and air gapped attacks makes me want to just uncle Ted the fuck out, minus the violence.
I wouldn’t mind Tedding out some of these tech bros.
Even if you wanted to you can’t use the AI these guys want because it doesn’t work.
I haven’t read the article. I’m not going to read the article because I, quite frankly, don’t care about these people and I hope they all fucking crash and burn. But I’m going to take a guess and say that their attitude is something on the order of “We’re making tons of money how can they possibly be the bubble?”
In my opinion thus far, AI is good for the consumer, not the enterprise. It has no new information, which is what makes companies grow. I know people don’t think the want it, but in the end, it will be that Microsoft, Apple, and Max n don’t have a reason for it right now. While Google does. (Bing is Microsoft so yes). People are idiots and can learn from others. New ideas can’t come from language models, thus useless to companies looking to engineer new ideas. But if you want to re-iterate BS people could not find, it helps. It will bleed anyone providing the information dry, so that will dry off, but it puts every dollar into the search engines povket for advertising, and steals from anyone chasing “the American Dream”.
The bubble thing is more the financial aspect. None of these AI companies are profitable and they also don’t have a clear path to profit. For some time the business plan of Open AI was literally develop advanced AI and then let the AI figure out how to make money. Yet, these companies attract huge amounts of investment and are responsible for basically all of the economic growth in the US.
Nobody thinks there are no uses at all for LLMs or image generation etc. or that people in general hate all AI. It’s a bubble because a lot of money is being invested in something that nobody managed to make profitable yet, so if the investment stops, then these companies will all implode.
What benefit? Seriously, what benefits are you actually talking about?
Maybe they exist in niche areas, like improved translation software or some such thing, but maybe that’s just normal “use computers better” technological advancement and not actually anything magical.
No shit. Their stocks would crater if they did tell the truth.
These fucking nerds - Hey, Dipshit! Jedi mind tricks are not real! Your “These are not the AI Tech Bubbles you seek,” won’t work.
Trust me bro. Just one more AI, I swear.
“Not a bubble” isn’t for us it’s for investors that are starting to wake up. He’s just trying to keep them asleep
Filthy rich liars that got filthy rich by lying and stealing are once again lying to protect their disgusting wealth. Who could‘ve seen this coming?
What they say about it means nothing. Why would they say anything else?
Bubble inflators say there’s no bubble, ask for more pumps for no reason.
Tulip vendors saying mania is fake news!
Is davos a gathering of villains hell-bent on making the world a worse place?
Does he ever wash those clothes?
He just buys new ones every three days
three days hours
They’re Stanzo’s, the smell means they’re quality…
They’re nice
There is no was in Ba Sing Se
Current AI is a dead end, it’s less intelligent than a fly brain, which by the way can solve mazes with just 160,000 neurons, remember where the food is after hours of discovering such, is self replicating, and is a generic intelegect.
Like when the coach of a big sports team is interviewed on the half-time break of a game they’re losing, this guy will of course going to say they’re still going to win.
It would only be news if he confessed they were fucked.
The truth is: if you have wealthy people asking if a bubble is real, and their friends who benefit from their investment deny it, the bubble it is real.
Why is that wizened old man dressing in a leather jacket?
wizened?
AI casts government intervention at a level 5.
Dm: I fucking hate this new ruleset.
These people make me thirsty for guillotine time
Yeah, I’m sure they do
Autoerotic asphyxiation from farts in an echo chamber produce the wildest trips.
very hard to convince someone of something when their paycheck requires they don’t understand it. seroiusly “hay I’m one of the people who has been demanding my company finish AI and roll it out and stuff it into everything we sell to look like massive growth so my stocks will start going up even though the language models aren’t even designed to do what were claiming, and they don’t even work well as language models, and we have no real use for them and they’re horrifyingly costly to run, but no, I don’t think it’s a bubble.”
shittydwarf@piefed.social 2 weeks ago
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