Oh for fucks sake… I wanted to expand my NAS… Crypto was (is still responsible) for the shit state of the GPU Market and now it’s the next scam.
Hard drives on backorder for two years as AI data centers trigger HDD shortage — delays forcing rapid transition to QLC SSDs
Submitted 3 weeks ago by TheImpressiveX@lemmy.today to technology@lemmy.world
Comments
SW42@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
imetators@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 weeks ago
Just got 12TB IronWolf last week for an average price if 260euro. Delivery is long but other than that, price is average.
Checked just right now - average 310euro for the same HDD. From the place I picked mine - 293. SCORE!
Thinking about this for a minute - that’s probably pre-Black-Friday prices. We’ll see
JGrffn@lemmy.ml 2 weeks ago
Imagine how I feel right now, I bought 16 used 20tb Seagate drives around September last year for $200 each, from Amazon, and finally built my dream NAS after a decade of waiting and planning. I don’t understand how I got so lucky but I did. They’re all working just fine, and I somehow avoided having to wait another decade to finally build my NAS due to random capitalism gold rush bullshit. Praise be.
ngdev@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
i just bought an 8tb drive a couple weeks ago with zero issue
black_flag@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 weeks ago
Fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you, fuck you
Kissaki@feddit.org 2 weeks ago
But I bought only once HDD 😞
roofuskit@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
Remember a year or so ago when they all spun down production so they could charge more money for drives? I do.
rafoix@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
What else are these data centers going to hoard?
Jobs, GPUs, water, hard drives
sefra1@lemmy.zip 3 weeks ago
Electricity
1Fuji2Taka3Nasubi@piefed.zip 3 weeks ago
Ironic Microsoft doesn’t have enough electricity to power their hogged gpus.
AtariDump@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
jubilationtcornpone@sh.itjust.works 3 weeks ago
Land.
DickFiasco@sh.itjust.works 3 weeks ago
Privacy
frezik@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 weeks ago
Jet engines.
LodeMike@lemmy.today 3 weeks ago
Oh this must be for
trainingstolen dataSanctimoniousApe@lemmings.world 3 weeks ago
When it all comes crashing down, at least the Internet Archive could have easy & cheap access to it all.
Eximius@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
There is nothing short of non-fascistic government-forced bankcrupcy sell off that will actually make it cheap, so… I feel it is a pipe dream
axum@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 weeks ago
First outrageous DDR5 RAM prices now ssd’s.
Welp. Won’t be upgrading my pc for the next few years I see
ReallyActuallyFrankenstein@lemmynsfw.com 2 weeks ago
DDR4 too, as they phase it out. I bought 2x32GB of DDR4 for my older system 8 months ago for $80. Now a deal for 32GB is $90-100.
WhyJiffie@sh.itjust.works 2 weeks ago
and hard drives too, right?
RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
AI crap. Infesting everything. Search of all kinds, photo management, telephone menus, who knows what else. And it does none of it well.
mic_check_one_two@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 weeks ago
I don’t have issues with local AIs, for things like searching your local immich instance, or controlling your local Home Assistant devices. That photo of a bird you took 3’ish years ago? Yeah, you can find it in like three seconds with a local AI search. Want to turn the lights on with a voice request? AI is one of the easiest ways for a layman to handle the language processing side of things. All of that is a drop in the ocean.
But corporations have been trying to cram it into everything, even when it’s not a good fit for what they want to do. And so far, their solution to making it fit hasn’t been to rethink their usage and consider whether or not it will actually improve a product. Instead, their approach has simply been to build more and bigger data centers, to throw increasing amounts of processing power at the problem.
The technology itself isn’t inherently harmful on the small scale. But it has followed the same pattern as climate change. Individual consumers are blamed for climate change, and are consistently urged to change their consumption habits… When it’s actually a handful of corporations producing the vast majority of greenhouse emissions. Even if every single person drastically changed their emission habits, it would barely make a dent in the overall production. It was all because of massive astroturfed PR campaigns to shift the blame away from those companies and onto individuals. And we’ve seen that same thing happen with AI, where individual users have been blamed for using AI, instead of the massive corporations.
WorldsDumbestMan@lemmy.today 2 weeks ago
Think of all the cheap hardware being resold when the AI bubble pops.
RememberTheApollo_@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
There wasn’t as big of a price drop as I thought there would be when the crypto mining switched to ASIC from GPUs. Don’t know of all that hardware just got dumped or is sitting in a rack rotting somewhere. Hope that we get cheaper prices when the bubble pops, this artificial scarcity sucks.
Tja@programming.dev 2 weeks ago
Immich does photo management pretty well.
tomatolung@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
I think your sentiment and the back end requirements of AI is a big downfall of it, as while your sentiment has validity in many public facing deployments of it there are some things it is actually succeeding at. I speak from experience having used it for several specific use cases which it excels at, but you and others probably don’t have time nor care that this is true. And again marketing idiots out weight the deliberate approach that engineers and others might want, much less the economy might need.
JoeBigelow@lemmy.ca 2 weeks ago
Preaching down to folks who already have a good reason to hate your product is a good way to join that pile
87Six@lemmy.zip 2 weeks ago
cases which it excels at
Uhuh
Like me colleagues often come to me saying they fixed it with Cursor and when I check the UI where the bug was, the page doesn’t even load at all now.
I just had someone tell me they did something with AI and when I checked they didn’t even get right the very basic thing of coding around the right controller names. The fucking names were wrong. They didn’t even check the feature, they just shipped, called it fixed, and told me Cursor figured it out really quickly.
I’m tired of this.
tomatolung@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
I posted this as a perspective on AI that is not given by AI, nor by someone who believes it will stay this way, but nor am I promoting it. I believe it’s more nuanced that just being crap, although it is taking over many things in life. I have used it, I know how to use it for good (keeping it private, local, and to help teach reasoning as well as do the thing that we need done (like dishes, bills, and other bullshit). I’m fully aware it’s a bubble (14 billion to 1.4 trillion for OpenAI alone), dislike it and hate the energy waste. You all just seem to want to keep up the ignorant web user stereotype.
Have fun down voting something you don’t really understand.
apftwb@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
RAID5, don’t fail me now!
Evil_Shrubbery@thelemmy.club 2 weeks ago
As a PSA: depending on your needs (bcs I see a lot of simple homelabs RAIDing), consider second server or even second location simple snapshot backup vs same-machine duplication.
Like, which would you want to set up first depending on your specific risks profile.The later is like like a proper backup, the former more of a low-downtime strat (that most smol homelabs can do without - “just wait a day, mom”)
Eg as the most basic example - instead of local duplication you could have a small PC (even like some old Pi), big HDD, and rsync once a day.
(Ofc, with duplicated serves, finances permitting, you can also provide backup services which helps that downtime issue. And by finances I mean the rest of your server group stuff, which in my cases is mostly HDD cost anyways.)
apftwb@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
Got it!*
*puts a Timeshift partition on the same RAID array
solrize@lemmy.ml 3 weeks ago
Ram shortage too. But most users should avoid QLC.
cmnybo@discuss.tchncs.de 3 weeks ago
About the only thing I would consider using QLC for is games since write speed doesn’t matter and they can just be downloaded again if they get corrupted.
Aceticon@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 weeks ago
TL;DR
QLC drives have fewer write-cycles than TLC and if their data is not refreshed periodically (which their controllers will automatically do when powered) the data in them gets corrupted faster.
In other words, under heavy write usage they will last less time and at the other end when used for long term storage of data, need to be powered much more frequently merelly to refresh the stored states (by reading and writting back the data).
–
Quad Level Cell SSD technology stores 4 bits per cell - hence 16 levels - whilst TLC (Triple Level Cell) stores 3 bits - hence 8 levels - so the voltage difference between levels is half as much, and so is the margin between levels.
Everything deep down is analog, so the digital circuitry actually stores analog values on the cells at then reads them back and converts them to digital. When reading that analog value, the digital circuit has to decide which digital value it that analog value actual corresponds to, which it does by basically accepting any analog value within a certain margin of the mathematically perfect value for that digital state.
(A simple example: in a 3.3V data line, when the I/O pin of a microcontroller reads the voltage it will decide for example that anything below 1.2V is a digital LOW (i.e. a zero), anything above 2.1V is a HIGH (a one) and anything in between is an erroneous value - i.e. no signal or a corrupted signal)
So the more digital levels in a single cell the narrower the margin, the more likely that due to the natural decay over time of the stored signall or cell damage from operating, the analog value the digital circuitry reads from it be too far away from the stored digital level and be at best marked as erroneous or at worse be at a different level and thus yield a different digital value.
All this to say that QLC has less endurance (i.e. after fewer writes the damage to the cells from use what is read is not the same value as what was written) and it also has less retention (i.e. if the cell is not powered, the signal decay will more quickly cause stored values to end up at a different level than what was written).
Now, whilst for powered systems the retention problem is not much of an issue for cloud storage (when powered, the system automatically goes through each cell, reading its value and writting it back to refresh what’s stored there back to the mathematically perfect analog value for what is stored there) with just a slightly higher consumption over time for data that’s mainly read only that in systems with fewer levels or lower overt-time signal decay, the endurance problem is much worse because the cells will age twice as fast over TLC from data that frequently written (yeah, wear-leveling spreads the effect over all cells thus giving overall endurance is higher, but wear-leveling is also in there for TLC).
PissingIntoTheWind@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
This collapse when we only need 1/100 of what they are planning. Because not everyone is going to need a massive data center. Just like cars, computers and every other technology. It starts out diverse than shrinksssssssss.
Bababasti@feddit.org 2 weeks ago
Just thinking about all the electronic waste this is gonna generate is making me feel all icky
regedit@lemmy.zip 2 weeks ago
Now may not be a good time to tell you about the Windows 10 EoL that recently lapsed, then.
plyth@feddit.org 2 weeks ago
Think about all the HDDs that they will sell for cheap in 5 years.
salacious_coaster@infosec.pub 3 weeks ago
I noticed the price doubled since the last time I ordered a drive, like a year ago.
PancakesCantKillMe@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Yah. Now is a good time to sit tight and wait if you can.
carrylex@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
Note: Posted by the same media outlet that reported last week about the 9700X3D with zero fact checking
solrize@lemmy.ml 3 weeks ago
I haven’t been following trends but I just looked on newegg, and HDD and SSD prices look about where they were before, or maybe a bit higher. It’s nothing like the Chia craze where every drive of any kind was snapped up by crypto miners. Or the simliar thing further back where a flood in Thailand(?) clobbered a factory so there were big shortages and price spikes. Right now you can get drives if you’re willing to pay for them. There just hasn’t been the usual downward price trend.
CmdrShepard49@sh.itjust.works 3 weeks ago
I’ve been buying refurbished drives from ServerPartDeals and looking at my invoice from March versus now the price of the same drive has gone up 10% from $180 to $198 (Ultrastar HC530 14TB)
phx@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
Keep in mind Black Friday is also coming, and a lot of vendors like to raise their prices a bit before so they can claim a sale on the day
tomalley8342@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Yep. I thought $100 for 8TB was expensive when I checked earlier this year and now the cheapest one is $140. Fuck 😂
FundMECFS@anarchist.nexus 2 weeks ago
Why HDD’s?
I thought LLMs ran on a fuckload of VRAM and thats pretty much it. So the GPU market was the main affected?
NauticalNoodle@lemmy.ml 3 weeks ago
I’ve been waiting over a month for my MicroCenter to restock Western Digital 14-16 TB HDD to upgrade my NAS. I finally caved and ordered direct from Western Digital. It still took them 10 days to ship the order.
HugeNerd@lemmy.ca 2 weeks ago
Ouch, I picked the wrong time to finally upgrade from my 12 year old laptop and Windows 7?
anguo@piefed.ca 3 weeks ago
Damn, I started building a home server this summer, and I still need some HDDs for a NAS...
Valmond@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
My theory is that we’re hitting that limit again, most people don’t need more than a terabyte or two tops, so companies adapt.
Kind of shite being on the “need a bit more” side because I feel they’ll do everything to bleed us dry. My 2022 4TB drive was less than 100€, today 3+ years later, it’s 139€.
roserose56@lemmy.zip 2 weeks ago
Yet people will scalp, buy more products and defend it by saying “but I need this”. There used to be a time, where consumers would drive the industry, not anymore. And this leads to companies doing what ever they want.
People just accept for no reason.Reiea@sh.itjust.works 3 weeks ago
Makes me glad I built my nephew a country l computer last Christmas instead of this one.
yesman@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
So, if the AI bubble pops, it’ll be a great time to build a PC
Blue_Morpho@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Like there won’t be some other hype to immediately take it’s place. Just like Bitcoin GPU prices never collapsed because it went right into AI hype.
Feyd@programming.dev 3 weeks ago
The next hype lined up is quantum
YiddishMcSquidish@lemmy.today 3 weeks ago
Tbf Bitcoin didn’t fuck with the GPU market, that was more etherium’s doing
BlastboomStrice@mander.xyz 2 weeks ago
Im seeing a pattern here (capitalism)
CosmoNova@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
AI messed up GPU prices even before AI was really a thing. When everyone was caught up in the Bitcoin hype, Nvidia already focused completely on AI instead of banking on the crypto hype, neglecting consumer GPUs. And we still feel that today.
Pistcow@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
*Home server farm.
shalafi@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
When the AI bubble pops we’ll all be too broke to buy any PC anything.
The Buffett Index, America’s total stock valuation vs. GDP, is at 200%. It was around 130% in 1929, 2000 and 2007. Guess what? Chicken butts. (is what we’ll all be eating)
Wispy2891@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
There are a lot of “refurbished” drives from when the Chia bubble popped (a useless shitcoin that wasted HDD space with garbage data as a proof of cryptographic work)
calcopiritus@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Data storage devices are the last items you wanna buy second hand though. A drive failing could mean much more than just having to buy a new one.
SanctimoniousApe@lemmings.world 3 weeks ago
THIS is what I’m looking forward to. I’m guessing it’ll start sometime next year, so shortly after Christmas '26 will be the optimal time -at least that’s my long-term plan.
Knock_Knock_Lemmy_In@lemmy.world 2 weeks ago
I thought similar during the GPU crypto mining phase. There’s always something blocking cheap PCs.
someacnt@sh.itjust.works 2 weeks ago
Wish I could confidently say that it is going to pop soon, but I am not sure the current rebound is the bull trap. Maybe the correction was just a small blip in a huge bubble…
probable_possum@leminal.space 2 weeks ago
Nope. China vs. Taiwan at the horizon. They really want that island back. It won’t be good for world peace and really bad for last gen litho chips.
China vs. Europe and China vs. US are topics, too. Hopefully limited to economic pressure.
There’s always the second hand market…
Natanael@infosec.pub 2 weeks ago
The current mainland China gov never had any real claims to it. The argument they use is the same as for why they believe they have the right to enforce Chinese law on Chinese people abroad, including having their own secret police in other countries, etc, they simply don’t accept being anything less than the sole authority and sole representative for everybody they consider to belong to any ethnicity which is “theirs”. The claims on the island doesn’t really have much to do with the island, but that it’s populated with people they consider theirs.
ButteryMonkey@piefed.social 3 weeks ago
Be a great time to set up RAID storage systems mmmmmmm I cannot waaaaait to have something resembling a backup.
wreckedcarzz@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Required message that “raid is not a backup [solution]”, it’s an uptime and recovery system.
My primary server uses raid along with snapshots, full local backups, and off-site backups for critical data to two different cloud providers on different continents.
My second server backups images to the primary. My vps also backups to the primary. Both get the raid and snapshot treatment, and local, but not cloud. Gaming servers, boinc, and home assistant aren’t ‘critical’ :p
sakuraba@lemmy.ml 2 weeks ago
I’ll pray for this outcome, I need something that can actually run Unreal(requirements) Engine 5 games