Submitted 1 month ago by return2ozma@lemmy.world to technology@lemmy.world
https://gizmodo.com/is-the-ai-conveyor-belt-of-capital-about-to-stop-2000671017
Nvidia announced that it would invest $100 billion into OpenAI, OpenAI announced that it would pay $300 billion to Oracle for computing power, and Oracle announced it would buy $40 billion worth of chips from Nvidia.
I can’t help but feel like we both just ate shit for nothing." “That’s not true”, responded the second economist. “We increased the GDP by $200!”
Is anyone going to talk about how the amounts don’t remotely match up? If you just cancel them all out, you still get Open AI buying $160 billion in Oracle compute.
For those of you cheering for the AI bubble to pop…
AI investments now accounts for about 40% of the United States’ GDP growth in 2025, and AI companies are responsible for 80% of growth in American stocks.
…are you not scared shitless?
This is not the dotcom bust, and it’s far fucking worse than the 2008 housing crisis. And to think when I was young the Savings and Loan crisis was a big deal. We’re on the edge of Great Depression 2.0.
…are you not scared shitless?
the longer the bubble keeps going, the worse it will be… those of us convinced this is already a massive bubble believe the best time for it to pop was yesterday, the next best time is right now
Yea, the best thing for bubbles is to pop early and often before they start snowballing. These companies have negative net revenue and are burning billions. The tech is neat, but I don’t think text generators are going to completely revolutionize industries the way the industry is presenting them. NVIDIA giving OpenAI money to give to Oracle to give back to NVIDIA just screams house of cards.
Just like the real estate market!
Are you not scared shitless?
No.
I’m too fucking stupid.
What? For my third once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis? There’s no way this isn’t going to suck. We’re all doomed no matter what.
You have no clue what “doomed” means if you think what’s coming compares to anything since the Great Depression and WWII.
It would be interesting to know how many resources this growth has taken from others places…
As for now it don’t seems that AI has generated a profit for the companies that bring it to the market and it seems it will not do it even in the near future, so I assume the question is: how many years can your economy be sustained by a sector that is not generating any revenue and is absorbing a monstrous amount of resources ?
We are not talking about a single company (like Amazon back at the time), do you really think that even when Ai will start (if ever) to generate profits these will be able to repay all the investements done today ?
do you really think that even when Ai will start (if ever) to generate profits these will be able to repay all the investements done today
First, actual investments that have been done are relatively modest. It’s still a substantial portion of TSMC fab capacity. All of the deal announcements for datacenters are 50x-100x growth. I doubt all of this capacity will be built for a long time. Coding/reasoning models can have more demand, but openAI (most of the deal announcements) is not that good at those. 100x power growth is also 200x every 2 years token output growth, and if models get better, users need less tokens by getting it right on fewer tries.
Second, they are losing money at current levels. Oracle leaked it lost $100m on existing AI datacenter operating losses. Coreweave is fully levered at 10% interest rates. Everyone is operating like social media startups from 10-20 years ago. Only revenue growth and market share, and being cool, matters. Enshittification will come much later.
Third, datacenters are fundamentally flawed, and local AI has competitive advantage to them. AI is good at datamining the datacenter traffic for output that could be profitable to steal.
Fourth, the only business model is US military and disinformation control. They will pay infinitity, and support infinity investment. Giant datacenters are about Skynet. Not market profits. That US government would protect their oligarch partners in stealing your ideas/llm outputs, and amplify current media’s messaging that anti-genocide views are treasonous anti-American sentiment.
how many resources this growth has taken from others places…
If all the money goes towards skynet, energy bills for everyone else will go up, including what little manufacturers there are in US. Insisting on war on China and Russia is helped by forced unemployment, and fascist response to the unemployed’s uppityness. Datacenter AI’s primary certain value is as a new cold war Arms and disinformation race.
FWIW, part of the OpenAI investment process is signing something to say that you understand that you’re unlikely to get any return on your investment and that you consider it more akin to a donation
I personally prefer to rip off the band aid than let it stink and get it infected. I’m scared for the time remaining before the pop. This shit is intolerable. Let it “pop”. Let it burn.
We’re fucked. No point being scared of something we have no control over. A few rich men will come out of this ahead, and the rest of us will fight over the scraps, lose our homes, and starve. 🤷♂️
You have control, you’re just too comfortable to get off your ass and exercise it.
The best thing about this shit show is el spastico’s trade war having readied other countries for hard times and pushed them to diversify and make new trade deals. The US deserves its suffering completely, and now they will drag the world down less when they shit the bed.
Oh no, we won’t be able to afford houses or rent or save for retirement or- hang on just a second…
Wait, we already can’t do those things, and the last thing I want to do is, once again, validate the existence of people I would prefer to see in little pieces scattered all over the street for all the pain and suffering they’ve caused just to get a little more money on top of their billions.
Guessing you have no idea what the Great Depression was like. My parents grew up in it.
Great Depression: 30% unemployment
2008 crisis: 4.2% economic contraction
If you think modern America is bad now, boy oh boy, you’re about to get an education on how bad it can really get.
Serious question: what if I am, and have no idea how to prep for it?
My pension and other things are tied up in stocks and such, if there’s a crash coming I’d think cash under the pillow would be better than stocks. But how do you do that, with your pension?
I moved the majority of my 401k allocations to international markets and have stopped contributing more than the match minimum. I’ve lost on some serious short term gains but I’m not risking holding the bag with my kid’s future.
I think you should only be scared if you own AI stocks and I would guess not a whole lot of common people can even afford to invest in stock. Let those rich idiots lose their money. Maybe they will learn a lesson
Unfortunately, stocks tend to move in sympathy with each other due to various factors, such as large ETFs and algorithmic trading. Natural price action is kind of broken at the moment.
I could care less about the immediate “no” answer to the clickbait headline, but the real question posited by the article is “when is it going to stop, since it is clear that this is all hype and nothing more?”
How does one short this clearly impending financial disaster? Assuming that realistically it cannot go on forever, and that when it crashes it doesnt take the entire world economy with it. Although that is surely possible as well, in which case shorting anything would be a waste of time. But seriously, I dont see how more and more on wall street arent taking aim at the biggest hype bubble the world has ever seen
Just remember, the market can remain irrational longer than you can remain solvent. Unless you happen to be a billionaire.
So you care a little bit about the clickbait headline? What an odd way of expressing that.
no.
Any article that asks a yes/no question is always ‘no.’
ah, that makes sense
reads title of article
Verbally said “god I hope so.”
Then I read the article, and now I’m just thinking I hope it all burns immediately. I want to see the data center fires from my house.
Have you seen this?
I’m at work right now but holy @#%^ that’s one hell of a title. I’ll be sure to check it out when I can.
On the other side of the deal, OpenAI will have to pay about $60 billion per year to fit the bill for the agreement. It currently generates about $10 billion in revenue, which, statistically speaking, is less than $60 billion.
ok.
If so, what will the next bubble be? Because there is always a next bubble standing ready to go! Virtualization bubble, cloud bubble, container bubble, web 3.0 bubble, bitcoin bubble, block chain bubble, AI bubble… We’ve had a few over the past 20 years
Why are politicians fat? Nobody respects fat politicians do they? Outside people respect sexy toned politicians.
I don’t know, should we vote the fat ones out just to try it? Wait, would that make us all fatzists? Or weightzists? I’m at the restroom and felt that I had to bring it up since we’re thinning down our country’s defences. Relevant.
sarcasm I’m fat too.
The company’s development and expansion of its services will rely in no small part on massive data center projects, which will require the same amount of energy to operate as New York City and San Diego combined—energy that currently isn’t even available.
In that case, there is a little but fundamental problem. It is based on basic physics: You can fake securities or earnings, or you can print money. But you can’t fake energy because that violates the laws of physics.
What if we turned off all the poor people’s power nation-wide, would that be enough?
I’ll just offer some facts as a counterpoint to the prevailing narrative here.
My employer, a major multinational tech company, is pushing AI use internally so hard it hurts. After studying it they announced it was saving our software engineers about 4 hours a week net, or half a day. Thats as of now with adoption still growing and new tools being explored constantly. Half a day weekly is 10% of our software engineering budget which is a large number, and the company will without a doubt pay a significant sum to continue getting that benefit to get more out of their staff, who are their biggest cost of doing business.
I live in the dissonance between, on the one hand, the narrative in places like Lemmy that AI is shit and doesn’t do anything right and these companies have no monetization plan, and on the other hand, seeing it dramatically change my enterprise workplace and provide real value.
Yes engineers are confirming to my very own ears that they are using AI tools and they have their uses and save them time and toil. For example, we had one version update to push through hundreds of teams all with disparate front end code, and it was not possible to just script the update for them all because custom integration work would always be needed, but we did come up with a prompt that could use a set of documentation and entity mappings to accomplish the update in under a minute with a high rate of success. This is just how thu he are staring to get done.
Lemmy users dont know shit about how Ai is used. Most are probably still in school. :) My experience is the same as yours - companies are pushing for Ai because it allows employees to work faster and get more done. Significantly so.
I can ask it to create a script to do a task that would have taken hours or days to put together. Things like that are major wins and very, very easy to do.
I frequently ask it to compare tools as well, saving days or weeks of work. Whoever says this technology is not useful is just not using it right.
I think the Lemmy perception of AI boils down to just a few things:
Of course there’s more, like underlying fear of losing jobs, stealing from artists, and being dehumanized in general.
I happen to care a lot about those things too, but ranting on about 1-3 doesn’t actually help and is just people repeating each others points in a circle jerk. Meanwhile AI is on the move.
Are brown shoes like a fashion thing among these people, kind strange that in the photo they all have brown shoes
The powerbrokers have gotten into fashion trends, they absolutely do shit like this.
NaibofTabr@infosec.pub 1 month ago
Look I’m ready to see people come to their sense about this “AI” crap, but the answer is no.
neukenindekeuken@sh.itjust.works 1 month ago
First thing I thought of after reading it.
Betteridge’s law is never wrong. Or is it?
No.