humanspiral
@humanspiral@lemmy.ca
- Comment on The AI that we'll have after AI (Doctorow) 1 day ago:
a 2080S from 2019, a high end SKU, would struggle with many modern games at 1440p and higher. A profession streamer would be unlikely to use a 2080S.
On one hand a 2080s would still be good at doing what it was doing 6 years ago. If there are new needs, and unlimited power availability, then a new card in addition to whatever AI workload the 6 year old GPU can do in addition to the new card makes sense… if that card still works. Selling your 2080s or whatever old card, does mean a fairly steep loss compared to original price, but 6 year depreciation schedule is ok… IF the cards are still working 6 years later.
$3m NVL72 systems are a bit different, as one out of 72 cards burning out can screw up whole system, and datacenter power structure and expertise requirements, would have low resale value, though I assume the cards can be ripped out and sold individually.
They very much can be expected to engage in what is essentially accounting fraud.
Oracle this week “proudly boasted” that they get 30% margins on their datacenter, and stock went up. This is not enough, as it is just 30% over electricity costs. Maintenance/supervision, and gpu costs/rentals don’t count, and it is unlikely that they are profitable, though it’s not so much accounting fraud as it is accounting PR.
- Comment on The AI that we'll have after AI (Doctorow) 1 day ago:
OP’s post is largely right, but it doesn’t require that link to be true. Also, whether these $3m+ systems are warrantied is a relevant question. It’s hard to know exact lifespan from one person saying their gpu failed quickly. Paper still stands well.
Because of power constraints, I’d expect they replace GPUs every 2 years with new generations, and so there will be big write offs.
- Comment on The AI that we'll have after AI (Doctorow) 2 days ago:
The AI bubble doesn’t mean AI/LLMs aren’t useful. It means datacenter speculation can’t make money.
those GPUs are headed to the landfill.
They’ll just have a similar discount to the Ethereum switch.
- Comment on On January 1st of 2026, Texas will be required to give ID to download apps from the app stores. It doesn't matter if it's NSFW or not. 3 days ago:
This is not pro oligarchist app store. So can only be slavery anti-consumer extortion.
The thing is… side loading becomes more important, and paying less from apps by any other system becomes encouraged. No one likes this shit, but media ignoring actual fascism, doesn’t mean it won’t hit us/them.
- Comment on Japanese Government Calls on Sora 2 Maker OpenAI to Refrain From Copyright Infringement, Says Characters From Manga and Anime Are 'Irreplaceable Treasures' That Japan Boasts to the World 3 days ago:
Open AI gets so much free PR. Sora is free for now, and instagram getting flooded with copyright infringing crap is not what an expensive video AI creation is going to be paid for. AI videos are very expensive. There are very few people who will pay for it as an alternative for more expensive CGI. Advertising industry can consider full shift for video. They can avoid rights violations and still do it.
Point though, is that copyright controversies are irrelevant to everything important. There is a utility to it, but its not 60gw of power required market.
- Comment on Took me a moment 3 days ago:
In several mathematical notation systems, the most important being APL/J, programming languages inspired to codify “tools of thought” notation as code, the log function is ln. 10&log is base 10 log.
- Comment on Is the AI Conveyor Belt of Capital About to Stop? 4 days ago:
do you really think that even when Ai will start (if ever) to generate profits these will be able to repay all the investements done today
First, actual investments that have been done are relatively modest. It’s still a substantial portion of TSMC fab capacity. All of the deal announcements for datacenters are 50x-100x growth. I doubt all of this capacity will be built for a long time. Coding/reasoning models can have more demand, but openAI (most of the deal announcements) is not that good at those. 100x power growth is also 200x every 2 years token output growth, and if models get better, users need less tokens by getting it right on fewer tries.
Second, they are losing money at current levels. Oracle leaked it lost $100m on existing AI datacenter operating losses. Coreweave is fully levered at 10% interest rates. Everyone is operating like social media startups from 10-20 years ago. Only revenue growth and market share, and being cool, matters. Enshittification will come much later.
Third, datacenters are fundamentally flawed, and local AI has competitive advantage to them. AI is good at datamining the datacenter traffic for output that could be profitable to steal.
Fourth, the only business model is US military and disinformation control. They will pay infinitity, and support infinity investment. Giant datacenters are about Skynet. Not market profits. That US government would protect their oligarch partners in stealing your ideas/llm outputs, and amplify current media’s messaging that anti-genocide views are treasonous anti-American sentiment.
how many resources this growth has taken from others places…
If all the money goes towards skynet, energy bills for everyone else will go up, including what little manufacturers there are in US. Insisting on war on China and Russia is helped by forced unemployment, and fascist response to the unemployed’s uppityness. Datacenter AI’s primary certain value is as a new cold war Arms and disinformation race.
- Comment on Looking more like insider trading scam than AI bubble: Open AI raises commitments/partnerships to 36GW with new 10gw Broadcom deal 6 days ago:
that is how OpenAI measures all of its deals. the GPU providers DGAF about that measure, and “real deals” will be for x number of gpu’s instead. OpenAI PR make stonk go up, is vagueness everyone else seems to enjoy. It makes 0 sense in any deals these companies can make. It just scares the rest of us for how much the power bill go brrrr.
- Looking more like insider trading scam than AI bubble: Open AI raises commitments/partnerships to 36GW with new 10gw Broadcom dealwww.cnbc.com ↗Submitted 6 days ago to technology@lemmy.world | 5 comments
- Comment on Everyday AI looks more like the '08 housing bubble 6 days ago:
Just defining what soft power means. Soft extortion and bribery just as bad as extortion and bribery.
- Comment on Everyday AI looks more like the '08 housing bubble 6 days ago:
Zionism controls US and its media. Nearly all politicians in US are Zionists even if just a handful are Jews. I’m not the one who said all jews are genocidal zionazi supporters. You have no right to try denying subhuman demonic evil zionazi supremacist control over the US by pretending, passive-agressive supremacistly, me or anyone else is making a remark about Jews.
- Comment on Everyday AI looks more like the '08 housing bubble 1 week ago:
deserts, for example.
floating ocean platforms as well
- Comment on Everyday AI looks more like the '08 housing bubble 1 week ago:
please be more specific in what you don’t understand. I guess that…
fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel
US government needs AGI for US military supremacy. That is Skynet (in Terminator movies, this is the military program to install AI in all the computers, and then AI chooses genocide nuclear launch). It is for Israel’s benefit, because that is who owns US government. That it be fossil fuel powered, serves another key US oligarchy.
Regardless of whether datacenters will make money solving business and individual problems or boosting productivity, the US will keep investing in order to get Skynet. You can be correct that “frontier datacenter LLM models” will not make money, but still lose on financial bets validating that idea. Instead of an AI bubble bursting, even more money chasing Skynet will come with Austerity for rest of population. The “valuation bubble” only pops when investor money flowing in dries up. It may only dry up after the collapse of the US.
- Comment on Everyday AI looks more like the '08 housing bubble 1 week ago:
CAPE is a weird measure in that it looks at last 10 years of earnings for PE ratio. It is not especially relevant in that a fair expectation for next year’s earnings is this year’s earnings. It is intriguing that there wasn’t significant earnings growth levels in the past, though, which because PE based on this year’s earnings would have high CAPE if high recent growth.
- Comment on Everyday AI looks more like the '08 housing bubble 1 week ago:
But of we look at the last 40 years or so, the CAPE has been higher, suggesting that we don’t know how what “normal” looks like going forward.
As you listed, crashes lead to sub 20 PEs. Mag7 PEs is not representative of Russel 2000 PEs. High PEs expect high growth for long period. Reality checks usually happen, but PE’s are not universally high. Just with the oligarchs with White House guest passes.
- Comment on Everyday AI looks more like the '08 housing bubble 1 week ago:
helping a lot of people in Eastern Europe
to support Israel and war on Russia
Soft power is always more effective than hard threats, because the corrupt CIA stooges pillaging their economies and contributing to destruction of humanity do so with the dignity that threats and bribes are secret and unobvious sycophancy to the US empire. Soft power means that your pawns are not explicitly exposed as your owned pawns.
That your job makes the colonization mission more effective, all glory to hypno Trump, is a cheaper and more direct path to complete capitulation by the colonial “governor generals”.
- Comment on Everyday AI looks more like the '08 housing bubble 1 week ago:
GOP without fail always wrecks the economy, in what gets forecasted as the last time they will ever be trusted with power again. Dems just get 51% of votes anyway.
- Comment on Everyday AI looks more like the '08 housing bubble 1 week ago:
This only got downvotes in another thread. There is far worse that can happen than an AI bubble.
People get distracted over the fate that the pure speculative frenzy could be an AI bubble, and the harm to the hapless speculators and banksters could have a minor impact on the rest of the economy.
Reality is far worse than an AI bubble. It is a US mission for a fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel that is too big to fail. Bubble in AI investments becomes unlikely, but total destruction of rest of US economy/prosperity becomes assured when the “plebs able to eat in America bubble” bursts is a sacrifice that a fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel is willing to make.
If Americans are still able to afford to eat, then China or Iran wins.
- Comment on Climate goals go up in smoke as US datacenters turn to coal 1 week ago:
China already has 200% the capacity relative to their demand. They’ve been growing solar fast enough to beat very high 8%+ electricity consumption growth last year, and can probably keep the pace.
- Comment on Climate goals go up in smoke as US datacenters turn to coal 1 week ago:
People get distracted over the fate of the pure speculative frenzy could be an AI bubble, and the harm to the hapless speculators and banksters could have a minor impact on the rest of the economy.
Reality is far worse than an AI bubble. It is a US mission for a fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel that is too big to fail. Bubble in AI investments becomes unlikely, but total destruction of rest of US economy/prosperity becomes assured when the “plebs able to eat in America bubble” bursts is a sacrifice that a fossil fueled powered Skynet for Israel is willing to make.
- Comment on 11 axel wtf. is that ai 1 week ago:
They did manage to get it to the parade.
- Comment on i enjoy high fructose corn syrup too 1 week ago:
Although RFKjr has some crazy ideas, not adding food colouring to the balanced diet pyramid is not one of them, and one that any other GOP fascist loyalist, given the job, would gladly do it if given a dollar for it. Energy secretary as an example is full oligarchist energy protectionism.
- Comment on Trump floats dropping Spain from NATO alliance 1 week ago:
NATO is bad for colonies. The only response to extortion of “do what we say or get kicked out” is to leave.
- Comment on Trump floats dropping Spain from NATO alliance 1 week ago:
energy transition, but if the boat floats… wait until the orcas sink it.
- Comment on The Great Software Quality Collapse: How We Normalized Catastrophe 1 week ago:
You can’t leak 32GB of RAM on a 512MB machine.
32gb swap file or crash. Fair enough point that you want to restart computer anyway even if you have 128gb+ ram. But calculator taking 2 years off of your SSD’s life is not the best.
- Comment on The Great Software Quality Collapse: How We Normalized Catastrophe 1 week ago:
32gb+ memory leaks require reboot on any machine, and need higher level than critical.
The AI later admitted: “This was a catastrophic failure on my part. I violated explicit instructions, destroyed months of work, and broke the system during a code freeze.” Source: The Register
When I started using LLM’s, and would yell at its stupidity and how to fix it, most models (Open AI excepted) were good enough to accept their stupidity. Deleting production databases certainly feels better with AI’s woopsie. But being good at apologizing is not best employee desired skill.
Collapse (Coming soon) Physical constraints don’t care about venture capital
This is naive, though the collapse part is worse. Venture capital doesn’t care about physical constraints. Ridiculously expensive uneconomic SMRs will save us in 10 (ok 15) years. Kill solar now to permit it. But, scarcity is awesome for venture capital. Just buy utilities, get cheap power for datacenters, and raise prices on consumers and non-WH-gifting-guest businesses by 100% to 200%. Physical constraints means scarcity means profits. Surely the only political solution is to genocide the mexican muslim rapists.
- Comment on Trump floats dropping Spain from NATO alliance 1 week ago:
Tremendous opportunity for freedom for Spain. NATO is just a formal colonization process in service for US. All members treasonously gaslight their population into serving CIA/US empire as a colony ahead of national prosperity. Russophobia is gaslighting population to be the next “to the last Ukrainian” proxy sacrifice for glory of US. Obviously 5% of GDP (US officially spends 3%) on purchasing US weapons is prima facie reason to execute any politician supporting it for treason. No trial needed.
All NATO members need new rulerships. Ironically, it is the more right wing/conservative parties that Trump lackies praise who are the most NATO/EU skeptic. Every politician who has their political capital tied up in CIA/NATO/US alliance and Russophobia is only capable of begging the US on how to best gaslight their people into stronger colonial subservience and stronger distracting hatred against US rivals.
So far, all direct threats against NATO colonies has resulted in pure desperate sycophancy to submit harder to the US. Spain has a new choice, and can either lead EU, or join in their suicide pact.
- Comment on Trump floats dropping Spain from NATO alliance 1 week ago:
Resist Israel with actual bans of airspace/ports use to assist Israel.
- Comment on Caption this. 1 week ago:
I was going to attempt colour coding for 3 dimensions, and fatness, then I noticed the top of the cylinders are pie charts.
- Comment on Senate report says AI will take 97M US jobs in the next 10 years, but those numbers come from ChatGPT 1 week ago:
Easy path, yes. Oil/wepaons lobby. Mercer, Kochs, Ackman, Adelson…