By 2030, AI will greatly outperform humans in some complex intellectual tasks. Discover how LLMs are doubling their capabilities every seven months.
This is like measuring the increasing speeds of cars in the early years and extrapolating that they would be supersonic by now by ignoring the exponential impact that air resistance has.
technocrit@lemmy.dbzer0.com 19 hours ago
Classic pseudo-science. Vague definitions, sloppy measurements, extremely biased, etc.
Eranziel@lemmy.world 10 hours ago
That graph is hilarious. Enormous error bars, totally arbitrary quantization of complexity, and it’s title? “Task time for a human that an AI model completes with a 50 percent success rate”. 50 percent success is useless, lmao.
On a more sober note, I’m very disappointed that IEEE is publishing this kind of trash.
vrighter@discuss.tchncs.de 5 hours ago
in yes/no type questions, 50% success rate is the absolute worst one can do. Any worse and you’re just giving an inverted correct answer more than half the time
catty@lemmy.world 18 hours ago
and assuming that improvement doesn’t plateau, ever,