Comment on Large Language Model Performance Doubles Every 7 Months
Womble@lemmy.world 3 days agoThat said, exponentials don’t exist in the real world, we’re just seeing the middle of a sigmoid curve, which will soon yield diminishing returns.
Yes, but the tricky thing is we have no idea when the seemingly exponential growth will flip over into the plateuing phase. We could be there already or it could be another 30 years.
For comparison Moores law is almost certainly a sigmoid too, but weve been seeing exponential growth for 50 years now.
squaresinger@lemmy.world 3 days ago
Moore’s law hasn’t been exponential for ~15 years now.
Womble@lemmy.world 3 days ago
If you are just talking transitor density I believe it still is, but even if not, my point was that it had exponential growth spanning over many decades.