AGI is not in reach. We need to stop this incessant parroting from tech companies. LLMs are stochastic parrots. They guess the next word. There’s no thought or reasoning. They don’t understand inputs. They mimic human speech. They’re not presenting anything meaningful.
Sergey Brin says AGI is within reach if Googlers work 60-hour weeks
Submitted 2 months ago by misk@sopuli.xyz to technology@lemmy.world
Comments
oakey66@lemmy.world 2 months ago
raspberriesareyummy@lemmy.world 2 months ago
I feel like I have found a lone voice of sanity in a jungle of brainless fanpeople sucking up the snake oil and pretending LLMs are AI. A simple control loop is closer to AI than a stochastic parrot, as you correctly put it.
SinningStromgald@lemmy.world 2 months ago
There are at least three of us.
I am worried what happens when the bubble finally pops because shit always rolls downhill and most of us are at the bottom of the hill.
Opinionhaver@feddit.uk 2 months ago
pretending LLMs are AI
LLMs are AI. There’s a common misconception about what ‘AI’ actually means. Many people equate AI with the advanced, human-like intelligence depicted in sci-fi - like HAL 9000, JARVIS, Ava, Mother, Samantha, Skynet, and GERTY. These systems represent a type of AI called AGI (Artificial General Intelligence), designed to perform a wide range of tasks and demonstrate a form of general intelligence similar to humans.
However, AI itself doesn’t imply general intelligence. Even something as simple as a chess-playing robot qualifies as AI. Although it’s a narrow AI, excelling in just one task, it still fits within the AI category. So, AI is a very broad term that covers everything from highly specialized systems to the type of advanced, adaptable intelligence that we often imagine. Think of it like the term ‘plants,’ which includes everything from grass to towering redwoods - each different, but all fitting within the same category.
Jesus_666@lemmy.world 2 months ago
That undersells them slightly.
LLMs are powerful tools for generating text that looks like something. Need something rephrased in a different style? They’re good at that. Need something summarized? They can do that, too. Need a question answered? No can do.
LLMs can’t generate answers to questions. They can only generate text that looks like answers to questions. Often enough that answer is even correct, though usually suboptimal. But they’ll also happily generate complete bullshit answers and to them there’s no difference to a real answer.
They’re text transformers marketed as general problem solvers because a) the market for text transformers isn’t that big and b) general problem solvers is what AI researchers are always trying to create. They have their use cases but certainly not ones worth the kind of spending they get.
Blue_Morpho@lemmy.world 2 months ago
LLM’s can now generate answers. Watch this:
biggerbogboy@sh.itjust.works 2 months ago
My favourite way to liken LLMs to something else is to autocorrect, it just guesses, and it gets stuff wrong, and it is constantly being retrained to recognise your preferences, such as it starting to not correct fuck to duck for instance.
And it’s funny and sad how some people think these LLMs are their friends, like no, it’s a collosally sized autocorrect system that you cannot comprehend, it has no consciousness, it lacks any thought, it just predicts from a prompt.
Opinionhaver@feddit.uk 2 months ago
Why is AGI not in reach? What insight do you have on the matter than you can so confidently make an absolute statement like that?
oakey66@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Experts in the field.
open.spotify.com/episode/4IoS9rBDq7GLwsgccKqCti?s…
I also work in the industry. In particular I work in data analytics consulting. It’s all hype to sell consulting hours and compute.
eestileib@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 months ago
I promise this is relevant and worth the watch.
flamingo_pinyata@sopuli.xyz 2 months ago
lol, because if they work 40-hour weeks they might create it a couple of weeks later
TheFogan@programming.dev 2 months ago
Or, worse, they might actually have to hire enough people to actually do the job. Why hire 100 people with good work life balance, when you can hire 60 people that aren’t allowed to have lives or families.
sundrei@lemmy.sdf.org 2 months ago
60
peopleworkers that aren’t allowed to have lives or familiesI mean, that’s what the AI will be for…
Blackmist@feddit.uk 2 months ago
If it’s within reach of a 60 hour week then it’s within reach of a 30 hour week.
This LLM copycat bullshit is never going to be it though. It’s not thinking, it’s looking up the answers at the back of the book.
merdaverse@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Is there any actual evidence that they are getting closer to AGI? It seems ridiculous to think that this LLM parrot bullshit is getting there.
sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 2 months ago
Yup, hire 20-30% more people and have them work 30 hours. That’s fewer total hours worked, but they’re higher quality hours, so you should get more from less.
Llewellyn@lemm.ee 2 months ago
Can 9 women conceive and give birth to a child in one month?
3dmvr@lemm.ee 2 months ago
If it can be reached in 60 hour work weeks it can be reached in 40, but nah mfs should rush to get themselves replaced
Lost_My_Mind@lemmy.world 2 months ago
If it can be reached in 60 hour work weeks, then it can be reached in 40 hour work weeks be hiring a second person.
If management isn’t willing to put the effort in of hiring the required staff, why would I want to work the job of 2 people for 1 persons pay?
frezik@midwest.social 2 months ago
IT project management doesn’t work that way, but it doesn’t matter much. 60 hour work weeks wouldn’t help, either.
Obelix@feddit.org 2 months ago
Just for information: We know, from multiple studies, that working more than 40 hours a week for longer periods of time is extremly unhealthy for you. A week has 24*7 = 168 hours and you should sleep 8 hours. That are 56 hours and if you’re working 60 hours, that leaves you with 52 hours or 7,5 hours per day for stuff like “commuting to work”, “buying groceries”, “brushing your teeth” , “family”, “friends”, “sport” or “this important appointment at the dentist”.
And that 7,5 hours are without a weekend. This will kill you. You might be younger and feel strong, but this will kill you.
vga@sopuli.xyz 2 months ago
Not to mention that it doesn’t yield higher output. So it’s stupid on every level.
Obelix@feddit.org 2 months ago
Yeah, that is also a factor. You can’t expect good work from somebody who has been working for 60 hours for years without having a vacation.
Allero@lemmy.today 2 months ago
And if you want to have two weekends, 60 hours in 5 days is 12 hours of work a day, minus 8 hours for sleep you get 4 hours, minus ~2 hours commute you get 2 hours, and the rest is basic cooking and eating. This leaves 0 hours for anything else, including rest or even any other duties. This will absolutely kill you in the long run.
silasmariner@programming.dev 2 months ago
I remember hearing about somewhere - alphabet or meta or something like that - that basically provided adult crèche facilities for the employees. Way beyond just food - On-site nap rooms. Washing machines. Showers. The works. All to enable just a super unhealthy attitude towards work. Thinking about how much that must’ve affected anyone going there straight after uni when they should have been leaning how to look after themselves makes me shudder with cringe
SkunkWorkz@lemmy.world 2 months ago
lol no way AGI is within reach. He is just trying to hype investors. Bet he has a scheduled stock sale soon.
ShaggySnacks@lemmy.myserv.one 2 months ago
The classic pump and dump scheme with some extra steps to make it more legal.
Google “Trust us bro, AGI is right around the corner.”
Phegan@lemmy.world 2 months ago
He can fuck all the way off.
rottingleaf@lemmy.world 2 months ago
globally
Sibbo@sopuli.xyz 2 months ago
This is almost too depressing to be funny.
billwashere@lemmy.world 2 months ago
I’m really getting sick and tired of these rich fuckers saying shit like this.
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we are no where close to AGI given this current technology.
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working 50% longer is not going to make a bit of difference for AGI
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and even if it would matter, hire 50% more people
The only thing this is going to accomplish is likely make him wealthier. So fuck him.
graphene@lemm.ee 2 months ago
Increasing working hours decreases actual labor done per hour. A person working 40 hours per week will more often than not achieve more than someone working 70.
“in Britain during the First World War, there had been a munitions factory that made people work seven days a week. When they cut back to six days, they found, the factory produced more overall.”
"In 1920s Britain, W. G. Kellogg—the manufacturer of cereals—cut his staff from an eight-hour day to a six-hour day, and workplace accidents (a good measure of attention) fell by 41 percent. In 2019 in Japan, Microsoft moved to a four-day week, and they reported a 40 percent improvement in productivity. In Gothenberg in Sweden around the same time, a care home for elderly people went from an eight-hour day to a six-hour day with no loss of pay, and as a result, their workers slept more, experienced less stress, and took less time off sick. In the same city, Toyota cut two hours per day off the workweek, and it turned out their mechanics produced 114 percent of what they had before, and profits went up by 25 percent. All this suggests that when people work less, their focus significantly improves. Andrew told me we have to take on the logic that more work is always better work. “There’s a time for work, and there’s a time for not having work,” he said, but today, for most people, “the problem is that we don’t have time. Time, and reflection, and a bit of rest to help us make better decisions. So, just by creating that opportunity, the quality of what I do, of what the staff does, improves.”"
- Hari, J. (2022). Stolen Focus: Why You Can’t Pay Attention–and How to Think Deeply Again. Crown.
In 1920s Britain, W. G. Kellogg: A. Coote et al., The Case for a Four Day Week (London: Polity, 2021), 6.
In 2019 in Japan, Microsoft moved to a four-day week: K. Paul, “Microsoft Japan Tested a Four-Day Work Week and Productivity Jumped by 40%,” Guardian, November 4, 2019; and Coote et al., Case for a Four Day Week, 89.
In Gothenberg in Sweden around the same time: Coote et al., Case for a Four Day Week, 68–71.
In the same city, Toyota cut two hours per: day: Ibid., 17–18.
Semi_Hemi_Demigod@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Imagine how much productivity we’d have if we cut work to 0 hours per week
JackFrostNCola@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Or option 4) stay as you are and you will just acheive it in due time rather than in a 50% shorter timeframe?
helopigs@lemmy.world 2 months ago
relative to where we were before LLMs, I think we’re quite close
billwashere@lemmy.world 2 months ago
They are very impressive to where we were 20 years ago, hell even 5 years ago. The first time I played with ChatGPT I was absolutely floored. But after playing with a lot of them, even training a few RAGs (Retrieval-Augmented Generation), we aren’t really that close and in my opinion this is not a useful path towards a true AGI. Don’t get me wrong, this tool is extremely useful and to most people, they’d likely pass a basic Turing Test. But LLMs are sophisticated pattern recognition systems trained on vast amounts of text data that predict the most likely next word or token in a sequence. That’s really all they do. They are really good at predicting the next word. While they demonstrate impressive language capabilities, they lack several fundamental components necessary for an AGI: -no true understanding -they can’t really engage in the real world. -they have no real ability to learn real-time. -they don’t really have the ability to take in more then one type of info at a time.
I mean the simplest way in my opinion to explain the difference is you will never have an LLM just come up with something on its own. It’s always just a response to a prompt.
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OldWoodFrame@lemm.ee 2 months ago
If you need 50% more person-hours, hire 50% more people.
rimjob_rainer@discuss.tchncs.de 2 months ago
Instructions unclear, fired 50% of people
psyklax@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 months ago
What if they just work 30 hour weeks for twice as many weeks?
sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 2 months ago
More like 10-20% more weeks. It turns out people get less productive the more hours they work.
wurstgulasch3000@feddit.org 2 months ago
I’ve noticed my peak efficiency is at about 32h/week
It also greatly improves my mood and capacity for hobbies after work
7rokhym@lemmy.ca 2 months ago
Thought this was an Onion article!
Hey plebs! I demand you work 50% more to develop AGI so that I can replace you with robots and fire all of you and make myself a double plus plutocrat! Also, I want to buy an island, small city, Bunker, Spaceship, And/Or something.
dan1101@lemm.ee 2 months ago
Let’s work 20 hour weeks then. Who wants AGI other than war pigs and billionaires?
RisingSwell@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 months ago
I mean, we could get a rogue agi take over the world. It might not even be worse lmao
Opinionhaver@feddit.uk 2 months ago
Who wants AGI other than war pigs and billionaires?
Every single person suffering from a chronic / terminal illnes for example.
dan1101@lemm.ee 2 months ago
That would be nice but would the corporate medical induatry allow that?
SynopsisTantilize@lemm.ee 2 months ago
WarPigs by Sabbath was about the future.
LodeMike@lemmy.today 2 months ago
Or just hire 50% more engineers? Or wait 50% longer?
ristoril_zip@lemmy.zip 2 months ago
with “hire more” you do run up against the “9 women can have a baby in 1 month” limit, but in this case it’s likely to help.
LodeMike@lemmy.today 2 months ago
Why?
jordanlund@lemmy.world 2 months ago
If it’s in reach working 60 hour weeks, it’s also on reach working 40 hour weeks, it will just take 1/3rd longer. ;)
howrar@lemmy.ca 2 months ago
Let’s be real, it’ll probably happen faster on 40 hour work weeks than 60.
NotMyOldRedditName@lemmy.world 2 months ago
lots of evidence pointing to it’d be quicker in 32 hour weeks than 40
LodeMike@lemmy.today 2 months ago
50%
cupcakezealot@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 months ago
I bet Sergey Brin doesn’t even work half that.
Azal@pawb.social 2 months ago
Oh he’ll tell you he works 16 hours a day. Of course his meal, his exercise, his reading of the news, his coffee, all are work.
But he works 16 hours a day!
axh@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Yup… Work your ass off guys, so we can fire you sooner! Great deal.
phoenixz@lemmy.ca 2 months ago
Or you could hire 50% more employees for the holy grail of having more wealth than any other company ever after this program.
But even for something this big (that, incidentally will end humanity) they are too scrooge to even pay their employees a normal wage for normal hours
Fuck these assholes, burn in hell
MonkderVierte@lemmy.ml 2 months ago
Or if you hire more personel. Overtime work is more expensive anyway.
ChaoticEntropy@feddit.uk 2 months ago
We can make the AI slave, we just need the humans to be more slave-like to do it.
antlion@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 months ago
AGI requires a few key components that no LLM is even close to.
First, it must be able to discern truth based on evidence, rather than guessing it. Can’t just throw more data at it, especially with the garbage being pumped out these days.
Second, it must ask questions in the pursuit of knowledge, especially when truth is ambiguous. Once that knowledge is found, it needs to improve itself, pruning outdated and erroneous information.
Third, it would need free will. And that’s the one it will never get, I hope. Free will is a necessary part of intelligent consciousness. I know there are some who argue it does not exist but they’re wrong.
grean@lemmy.ml 2 months ago
So this is how you use AI to get these promised productivity gains.
roofuskit@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Anyone else feel hungry?
vane@lemmy.world 2 months ago
When exactly was this pivotal moment when Google became a cult not a company ?
drathvedro@lemm.ee 2 months ago
Oh shit, here we go again. Time to short alphabet stock until they bury all that AI garbage like the rest of it.
RegalPotoo@lemmy.world 2 months ago
They talk about AGI like it’s some kind of intrinsically benevolent messiah that is going to come along and free humanity of limitations rather than a product that is going to be monetised to make a few very rich people even richer
satans_methpipe@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Just a few more hours bro.
shortrounddev@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Who gives a fuck what Sergey brin thinks
SocialMediaRefugee@lemmy.world 2 months ago
“Work 60 hour weeks.”
Sure, if we get paid the same.
InnerScientist@lemmy.world 2 months ago
That’s why I bake my cake at 2608°C for ~1,8 minutes, it just works™
alykanas@slrpnk.net 2 months ago
Project Manager here, and where I’m from it’s common knowledge that 9 women can have a baby in a month .
isaaclyman@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Or!—hear me out—one woman whose 8 co-gestators were just laid off by someone who doesn’t understand what their job was
eestileib@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 months ago
And an eager young bride can do in 7 months what takes 9 for cows and countesses.
Dindonmasker@sh.itjust.works 2 months ago
Burnt crust full of liquid cake. yum!
refurbishedrefurbisher@lemmy.sdf.org 2 months ago
Cake brulee
kambusha@sh.itjust.works 2 months ago
You can’t produce a baby in one month by getting nine women pregnant.