Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026

Comments

• mesamunefire@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  So far we are seeing significant price increases/low availability in:
  - RAM
  - SSDs/hard drives
  - some microcontrollers
  - phones
  - and now GPUs
  I think we are nearing a bit of a technological winter for the consumer market.

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  • Korkki@lemmy.ml ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    ahem… fuck AI.

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    • kepix@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      but how else will little timmy make his homework?

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  • morto@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    And all that while we get more and more dependent on technology…

    As someone from the third world, I’m really scared

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    • mesamunefire@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      Getting repairable tech will be even more important now than ever. Making your current devices last is important, but even more important in a couple of years (in my opinion).

      I just dont see the price going down.

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  • Sheldan@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Tbf, GPU were already part of a significant price increase. It just stuck around and got the new normal.

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  • Wispy2891@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Even cars

    Ford is cancelling their electric pickup because they will convert their ev battery factory in a factory that makes batteries for datacenters

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  • InternetCitizen2@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Interesting project

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• Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  Two ways to read this and I think both are somewhat true.

  Option one; They’re OPEC now. They set the supply, and you bring the demand because you have no other choice. This lets them push prices up, which pushes margins up, and that hopefully props up their insanely inflated share price a little longer.

  Option two; They’re well aware that demand is going to fall off a cliff soon. We’re already at “Nvidia is paying people to buy their GPUs” and have been for a while. The AI industry can’t afford to keep this train running, and even financial chicanery and circular dealing will only get them so far. Companies are building out data centres with zero plan for how to make any profit from them. When the GPUs they have age out, they’re not gonna buy more, they’re gonna go bankrupt (allowing the banks to sieze the mountain of now worthless three year old burned out GPUs that they used as collateral). And there’s not enough venture capital left for new data centre builds. The genAI financial engine is reaching its peak, and Nvidia doesn’t want to be stuck with a mountain of production that no one wants to buy.

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  • devolution@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Let’s not forget AAA games are the games that use gpus the hardest gaming wise and they are bombing at record levels because they are deritive garbage and AA games are doing more with less.

    Add that to the AI bubble bullshit and it’s just a perfect storm.

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    • JensSpahnpasta@feddit.org ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      I really would like to know if AAA games are bombing because they are overpriced microtransaction hell or if they are bombing because many people haven’t been able to buy their new gaming PC because of those GPU prices in the last 5 years and now we do not have the install base to run them

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    • lemmyout@lemmy.zip ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      Nah gaming doesn’t even make a dent in their revenue. Gaming demand means nothing to their supply, demand and pricing.

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  • empireOfLove2@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Option two is not correct, option one is correct. This announcement is specifically for consumer gaming GPU’s only, it does not affect institutional datacenter customers.

    This is Nvidia saying “thanks small fry, you were useful, but we’re leaving you behind now. Fight for the scraps.” Complete cartel behavior.

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    • FishFace@piefed.social ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      Then just buy AMD.

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    • eleijeep@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      They’ll have to come crawling back when the business customers stop buying. AI winter is coming.

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  • SinningStromgald@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    I think it is just plain greed. The AI bubble has made NVIDIA mountains of money but they still want more. So they focus production on higher tier consumer GPU’S and their Pro series and give a middle finger to budget conscience consumers.

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    • mesamunefire@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      My theory is its easier to produce a product for a small number of big investors in AI than millions of consumers looking to build hobby computers. Plus the AI companies are flush with cash, MUCH more than the average consumer. So they are getting the cash now and worrying about the fallout later, just like everyone else.

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  • panda_abyss@lemmy.ca ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    And sadly none of this hardware will be viable for consumers to use, even bought used.

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  • NOT_RICK@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Pretty astute. Maybe I can buy a half cooked gpu on firesale in a few years for a budget build… one can dream!

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    • addie@feddit.uk ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      Data centre GPUs tend not to have video outputs, and have power (and active cooling!) requirements in the “several kW” range. You might be able to snag one for work, if you work at a university or at somewhere that does a lot of 3D rendering - I’m thinking someone like Pixar. They are not the most convenient or useful things for a home build.

      When the bubble bursts, they will mostly be used for creating a small mountain of e-waste, since the infrastructure to even switch them on costs more than the value they could ever bring.

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    • Sturgist@lemmy.ca ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      Unfortunately the ones used in AI data centers aren’t useful for gaming. So yeah, probably could buy one for ⅓ the price of new, but couldn’t use it for gaming and likely still wouldn’t be able to afford it because of:

      NVIDIA H200 (Blackwell architecture) – The latest flagship (late 2023), with upgraded ~141 GB HBM3e and other Hopper improvements. It provides ~50% performance uplift over H100 in many tasks on the same power envelope. Pricing is said to be only modestly above H100. For instance, a 4-GPU H200 SXM board is listed at about $170K (versus $110K for 4×H100) ([2]) ([20]). A single H200 (NVL version) is quoted at around $31,000–32,000 ([21]). NVIDIA’s data center system NVDIMMs for H200 (DGX B200) reflect these prices, though bulk deals may apply.

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• Rooty@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  Gamers, I think it is time that we do the unthinkable.

  We must actually play our backlog of games.

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  • KokoSabreScruffy@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Hey, with no hardware purchases we can buy more heavily discounted games that we will never play.

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  • hsr@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    “Due to an unprecedented demand for old games we must increase the prices of any titles released before 2020”

    ~Some EA executive, probably

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    • TheBat@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      Activision is ahead of them already. Check prices of old Call of Duty games.

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  • zipzoopaboop@lemmynsfw.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Been on it since steam deck

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• unphazed@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  Remember ever company that cuts consumer production over private ai production. When the bubble pops stick with the companies that remembered consumers are the longterm profit. For the rest, let their shareholders eat them alive as they sell every share from beneath them.

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  • krimson@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    I think the pop has already begun. Look at the silver and gold prices. 2026 is going to be a stock market massacre.

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  • phoenixz@lemmy.ca ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Yeah, nobody will remember that, everyone will happily go back to those same brands that’ll also be lying about their histories

    Happens every time, man…

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• Cocodapuf@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  Oh please… Please Nvidia? Can regular people please still have computers?

  …

  Meh, nevermind. AMD and Intel can have your consumer business, I’m fine with that. Surely this AI trend isn’t a bubble, and there’s absolutely no way you’ll regret this later. Best of luck.

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  • Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    I wouldn’t go intel. That place is a shitshow. Also, I am not so sure the AI bubble will burst. World governments see it as sn arms race. So they will keep that industry propped up.

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    • echodot@feddit.uk ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      I’m not sure how it’s an arms race given the fact that it can’t do anything remotely useful.

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    • brucethemoose@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      I dunno what you’re on about, Battlemage is great for the money and they appear to have committed to stick with it. And they have fab customers now.

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    • Bakkoda@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      You can’t sustain it because it’s unsustainable. It’s exponentially inefficient. This isn’t like the US auto industry where labor negotiations blah blah blah. This is a black hole that is disappearing everything it touches. Brand loyalty, human rights, natural resources, political stability.

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    • partofthevoice@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      Propped up by what, though? They’ll just continue to dilute the name of AI with underperforming technology and yield more backlash from the public while making an oligarchy out of their richest tech influencers.

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• claim_arguably@lemdro.id ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  Fuck AI

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• DrFistington@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  So the real question is… Once they’ve kicked the bubble into survival mode, how long before it collapses?

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  • panda_abyss@lemmy.ca ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    I think the real question is how long can these companies decrease supply until consumers get hooked on thin-clients like iPads for all their computing, and have to pay rent on cloud services and SaaS for everything they do.

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• RizzRustbolt@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  The Bubble hungers…

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• ZILtoid1991@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  I need to resurrect my open source GPU architecture plans ASAP. Who wants to help me to plan out the VideoDSP shader cores?

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  • ivanafterall@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    Me!

    ChatGPT, I need help whipping up some open source VideoDSP shader cores. Make sure the output includes a definition (and give me professional quality code)

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    • ZILtoid1991@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      Amazing idea! A great open source GPU needs some well designed shader cores, and I kid you not that name is very punchy and memorable. It’s not only just a silly hobby — it’s also a very important thing in the ever changing landscape of silicon giants like nVidia and Intel.

      <poorly recites the leaked documentation of the VideoCore QPU>

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• BigTuffAl@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  Oh no, not the super expensive green team GPUs with obnoxious linux issues, how will I avoid buying them now? oh wait

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• Liyabuli@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  Well it is for a good cause of trying to make us all jobless faster.

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• sprack@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  Consumer GPU sales are driven by forecasts and orders from channel/OEM partners. If they don’t think consumers will buy a $1000 5070 because RAM prices spiked they sell to the market that will still buy, the 5080/5090. NVIDIAs direct customers in DC market can handle a $500-1000 bump on a $30-50k card more easily and put orders in before the wafers are bought.

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