What the fuck is going on with Iran and what will happen next?

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Submitted ⁨⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago⁩ by ⁨LadyButterfly@reddthat.com⁩ to ⁨nostupidquestions@lemmy.world⁩

Please provide more detail than “Trump is a twat” and “epstein distraction” cos that’s fucking obvious

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merc@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
What’s going on:

Israel and Iran:

Israel has terrible relations with virtually every country in the world, and even worse relations with the countries nearby, one of those countries is Iran

Iran is the only Shia Muslim country in the world (one where the majority of the population is Shia and the people in power are Shia)

There are Shia minorities in many countries, and in some countries the Shia are a majority of the population, but don’t have power (Iraq used to be like this, not sure how it is now)

Iran supports armed Shia groups outside Iran (Hamas in Palestine, Hezbollah in Lebanon, Houthis in Yemen, etc.)

Sometimes these Iran-backed Shia groups act a bit like governments, sometimes like terrorist groups, often a combination of both.

Israel shares borders with many countries with Iran-backed militias, so is constantly dealing with low-level conflict with groups linked to (financed by) Iran

Iran (quite reasonably) thinks that the only way it will be safe from attack is if it has nuclear weapons, so it has been trying to develop them for years

Israel (quite reasonably) doesn’t want Iran to have nuclear weapons, so has been trying to stop them for years, using spying, sabotage, and more recently, direct airstrikes

Under Obama, a deal was reached where Iran agreed to stop work on nuclear weapons in exchange for sanctions relief

Obama violated the terms of this treaty (as he has violated many other treaties) mainly because Obama signed it, and Trump has personal hatred for anything having to do with Obama

With no deal in place, Iran went back to working (at least more openly) on nuclear weapons

Trump, Racists, and Evangelicals:

The war against so-called “DEI” has meant any non-white person in an elevated position in the US government and military has been demoted or fired, and incompetent white person have replaced them

DOGE meant eliminating “waste, fraud and abuse”, but mostly they eliminated anything they didn’t understand, which included soft power, Iran analysts, etc.

Successfully kidnapping Maduro from Venezuela gave the Trump admin a false sense of confidence

Israel has a powerful lobby in the US,

Many evangelicals believe that we’re in the biblical endtimes, and that the rapture will happen soon. They want the jews to go back to Israel so Jesus can come back and kill them, then they get to go to heaven. Jews being in control of biblical places is a key element of their theory, so they support Israel because they want the world to end.

Israel’s latest attacks:

Israel attacked Iran last year, and the US joined in, and they claimed this “obliterated” Iran’s nuclear program

Despite this, the message is always that Iran is days or weeks away from a nuclear weapon, so both things are true: the Israeli/US strikes against Iran were a massive success and Iran’s program was obliterated, but Iran is still days or weeks away from developing a nuclear weapon

The Trump admin was trying to negotiate a new treaty with Iran, but wasn’t making much progress because the negotiators were unqualified idiots: a real estate developer (Steve Witkoff) and Trump’s son in law (Jared Kushner)

Israel saw another opportunity to take out targets in Iran recently, so they attacked, and the US felt the need to join in, despite being in the middle of negotiations

Hormuz

Many countries in the middle east only have major ports inside the Persian Gulf

Getting into the gulf means getting past the Strait of Hormuz, which Iran can easily control, it’s only 50km coast-to-coast in some places

Iran, at best, has non-hostile relationships with the rest of the Persian Gulf countries, so it doesn’t risk much by sinking any ship passing by in the Gulf

What’s Next:

Who knows

The US went into the conflict without a goal

Israel went into it with goals (destroy the ability for Iran to finance militias on Israel’s border, force them to focus on issues back home), but achieving its goals might make things even worse for the US

Iran is facing an existential threat, so it’s unlikely to back down, and it’s not really like the US can escalate without actually invading

In any invasion, the US would be badly hurt, Iran has a population of almost 100 million, 660 thousand active military, and 350 thousand reserves

Any invasion would also serve to have Iranians rally around their country

Many Iranians (especially urban ones) hate the theocratic regime, but they’ve seen how after US “interventions” nearby countries have collapsed into chaos. Stability under a hated theocratic leader is much preferable to chaos, so they’re unlikely to rise up

There are groups inside Iran who might fight (the Kurds for example), but they’ve been repeatedly burned by the US, over and over, going back decades, so they’re not going to take promises from the US seriously
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- mrdown@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Hamas is sunni
  
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  - merc@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Interesting, I didn’t realize that. I thought all of the groups Iran supported were Shia.
    
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- tronx4002@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Perfect summary, and had a laugh from your description the Evangelicals goals
  
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  - merc@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    It would be funny if they weren’t actually trying to bring about the biblical end-times. Also, they don’t care at all about the future because they don’t believe that the future will exist, since we’re in endtimes.
    
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- madcaesar@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Most of this is solid, the only thing I question is the whole Iran was working on nuclear weapons.
  
  Everything I’ve heard from non Trump sources was that they were not actively developing and were honoring the Obama deal.
  
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  - merc@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    We don’t really know. Maybe they stopped completely and honoured the deal. Maybe they didn’t even slow down and just hid what they were doing.
    
    We know that they allowed international inspectors in while the deal was active though, so at the very least they had to work harder to hide things if they were continuing to work.
    
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- Noel_Skum@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  That’s a pretty solid answer - well done.
  
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- littleomid@feddit.org ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  👏👏👏👏👏
  
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- LadyButterfly@reddthat.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Really easy to understand info there thanks
  
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neidu3@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Why: I think it’s mostly a matter of trump wanting to make a name for himself outside of his magazine cult. Neocons never liked him, and he hopes this might change it. Plus, a dose of realpolitik in an effort to seem tough usually works.

When: It will have to end soon, otherwise he’ll be shitting in his base. However, I think he’s about to figure out that he has to pull back and realize he had two choices:

Declare “victory” and leave the regime still in power, leaving people (his base included) asking what all these tax dollars were spent on

Keep going, losing more and more support from his isolationist base

How: Airstrikes will continue until the paragraph above has been addressed. And since Trump never reads history, he’s probably way too optimistic, never realizing this simple fact: No country/regime has ever unconditionally surrendered because of conventional airstrikes and bombardment alone.

To quote Sarah Paine (renowned military scholar and historian), once you put your enemy on death ground, meaning they will have to fight on or (probably) die, they will not surrender. Trump never offered the Iran regime an offramp, and while it sucks to be in Iran right now, they have no incentive to surrender.
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- mj_marathon@programming.dev ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  There’s also nothing to indicate that Iran would completely reopen the strait even if the US up and fucked off. What incentive do they have at this point to return to the old status quo?
  
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  - neidu3@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    And even if Iran changed their mines, it’s not like the mi es will just disappear
    
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  - JoMiran@lemmy.ml ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    
    What incentive do they have at this point to return to the old status quo?
    
    If the US fucks off, then Iran is left in a powerful negotiation position. They could us this incident to help normalize relatuons with oyher gulf states by pointing how the US and Israel started the fight, then left them all high and dry. They could make non-agression and safe passage deals with the gulf states as well as exhert real pressure against the normalization of relations with Israel.
    
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  - JoMiran@lemmy.ml ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    And just like that…
    
    Image
    
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  - panda_abyss@lemmy.ca ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Long term it’s better for Iran if stuff keeps flowing through and nobody moves away or pipelines around the Strait.
    
    Before that was just economically infeasible, but now it’s being shown as a massive vulnerability and there’s no going back.
    
    Unless Iran can make it look so expensive by comparison again.
    
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  - rosco385@lemmy.wtf ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Exactly! In for a penny, in for a pound. Iran will likely punish their neighbors who’ve been hosting US bases further before a ceasefire.
    
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- amio@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  When you say “his isolationist base” I know that was a talking point early on. Will any part of his base hold him accountable for literally anything ever, though? I would’ve assumed his base is now ecstatic about doing some warmongering no matter what he said five minutes ago?
  
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  - neidu3@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Time will show. There are some shitheads, such as Nick Fuentes, who have publicly disavowed Trump, and even Alex Jones is having a hard time defending Trump these days. Defection are happening, but any long term effect will probably be seen via a slow trickle and not a sudden drop in approval rating.
    
    The truth is, most people don’t stay up to date on the news, so while the base probably won’t notice that the current Trump talking points are inconsistent at best, come a year or two and they will probably notice that they are objectively worse off after Trump decided to spend billions on a war with Iran for dubious benefits. We will never see a point of “That’s it, fuck you!” on xitter. Suddenly the support will lose critical mass and fade into the background just like the teaparty did.
    
    I’m cautiously optimistic stemming from the fact that ideologies based on hate never succeeds in the long run. They either fizzle out, eat themselves, or on rare occasions implode spectacularly.
    
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  - ArbitraryValue@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    I think that most Trump voters support isolationism symbolically. They want a leader who prioritizes them rather than perceived others, but they don’t actually have a strong opinion about specific foreign policies per se. Attacking Iran does challenge that symbolism, but in the absence of direct effects on their own lives, their trust in Trump’s established “America first” reputation will go a long way.
    
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  - RobotToaster@mander.xyz ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Some of the more Libertarian ones are rallying around Thomas Massie. He seems like one of the few American politicians who are actually somewhat honest.
    
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  - DoubleDongle@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Going by the polls, roughly one in ten or perhaps more Americans have changed their mind about him already. They’re mostly independents, but he has also lost most of the literal actual Hitler-hailing nazis, which is a serious blow to his people power.
    
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- obey@lemmy.wtf ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Sounds like putin and ukraine. Just gotta keep killing people to save his ego
  
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  - hoch@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Except Ukraine was minding its own business, while Iran was busy arming terror groups across the middle east
    
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- Lost_My_Mind@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  
  No country/regime has ever unconditionally surrendered because of conventional airstrikes and bombardment alone.
  
  Are you forgetting WWII? Japan was setting up for a big American invasion of their islands, expecting millions dead, and then we dropped a nuke. Japan still refused, so we dropped another nuke. Then they surrendered.
  
  You’re assuming that we won’t use nukes, simply because it’s immoral and a huge escalation over nothing. Now look who’s giving the orders. An immoral pedophile who hates anyone mentioning how he’s a pedophile. He’ll do ANYTHING to stop people from mentioning he’s a pedophile. I think that includes nukes. This is the same guy who used the phrase “We’re gonna bomb the shit out of them!”
  
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  - neidu3@sh.itjust.works ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    That’s why I said “conventional”
    
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  - Alcoholicorn@mander.xyz ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Its not quite accurate to say bombing alone, yhe only condition Japan had when they tried to surrender before the bombs was the emporer, and that would have gone away as the Soviets got closer.
    
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  - tea@lemmy.today ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    That situation was different though. Japan was 100% getting invaded and they knew that when the bombs were dropped. Maybe not right away, in the very immediate term. Iran does not believe the US will execute a proper invasion as it has not been credibly threatened. If Iran believed that invasion was imminent, then the calculus would be different.
    
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  - Objection@lemmy.ml ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    The Japanese fascists didn’t give a shit about the people getting nuked. If they did they would have started the war in the first place. The most the nukes gave them was an excuse, they could pretend that’s why they surrendered to make themselves look better. The only thing they cared about was their own skin. The reason they didn’t want to submit to unconditional surrender was because they didn’t want to hang.
    
    The desperate hope that they had been hanging on to was that they could negotiate with the USSR to mediate the surrender (in fact, the USSR was just buying time as they moved troops to attack). This hope was prolonged because Truman pulled out of a joint statement with the USSR calling for surrender, and the reason he did that was because he wanted an opportunity to use the bomb.
    
    The USSR declaring war is the thing that removed the last hope the Japanese fascists had for a conditional surrender. They were then allowed to save face by claiming they cared so much about sparing the people from nukes. Because really the only reason the US was so insistant on unconditional surrender in the first place was because it would sound more badass in the papers and help Truman get reelected. Dropping the nukes also served as a way to justify the costs of the program, and to intimidate the Soviets.
    
    The projections for a possible invasion were all invented after the war as a talking point. No such projection existed during the war, nor was any invasion planned.
    
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TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Iran has control of and does not appear to be giving up, control of the straight of Hormuz. Basically then entire global economy hinges on this one geographically and physically limiting body of water. Any even elementary student of strategy knows this, has known this, and anyone advising world powers would be well aware of the implications of attacking Iran as the Americans and Israelis have done. As far as impacts you will likely feel, in the nearest time frame, this is the most relevant. 20% of global trade goes though this passage. The majority of oil going to south east Asia, China, Japan, Australia passes through this straight.

Like, I don’t really think its valuable to conjecture whats going on behind the eyelids of the administration, but they clearly misunderstood how vulnerable they were in this regard. The US dollar is suspending through enforcement of the petro-dollar: That the GCC nations are captured in the sense that they must trade oil in dollars. The value of the USD as form of fiat is elevated because of this. The GCC nations are all entirely dependent on the straight of Hormuz for effectively all calories going to those countries. These nations simply do not exist without access to the straight. They are also coupled with the fact that for all practical purposes, all of their water is from desalination plants; plants much more easily targeted as Iran has been both a) targeting radar and detection instillation throughout the region, and b) wearing down interceptor stocks.

While Israel basically tricked America into starting this war, its truly been one of their regional goals for decades. However, both Israel and the US suffer from extreme hubris in relationship to their capabilities, its clear both parties have misunderstood the mindset of the Islamic Republic. Both parties (Israel and the US) are used to negotiating with parties that will do practically anything to deescalate the situation. Iran is not like this. As a point of analysis, Iran (I think rightfully) considers what Israel and the US are doing as a war of extermination, and they’ve seen from other regional examples (Iraq, Afghanistan, Palestine, Lebanon) what works and what doesn’t work with regards to resisting US/ Israeli hegemony. And we see them doing seems to be very informed by this. In-spite of the power imbalance, Iran has a clear path to victory here and the US has basically none. So long as Iran can keep the straight closed and keep GCC nations shook, the US has no path to victory through air control alone.

What will happen next is:

Even if the straight were to open tomorrow, we’re looking at 3 months + of global disruption and we have recent historic precedent for this. See the Evergreen and the Suez canal. And that was with all parties cooperating to re-open the canal as soon as possible.

Prices are going to skyrocket and inflation is going to go back to being at risk of spiraling out of control. This is going to be like covid, but also not like covid, in that we don’t have the buffer in interest rates we did had built in the pre-covid times. The US can not both lower rates and prevent inflation. Its not clear there is any path the US can take financially.

Before the cold war, full blown wars would often last decades. The period of the cold-war and post-coldwar era are not reflective of how wars are fought historically. Modern war is focused on the doctrine of shock and awe: Dominate the air, use extremely impressive high tech weaponry, and forms of “omnipotent” systems (Wheres Daddy?, Satellite imagery, RF signature analysis ect). The shock-and-awe doctrine is to orchestrate the appearance of such dominance, the other party loses the narrative. However, with a few notable exceptions, this doctrine does not work against an opponent who is determined to resist (See Vietnam, Iraq one, Iraq two, Afghanistan, Hezbollah, etc…). The approach that the US and Israel are dependent upon has been repeatedly demonstrated to fail against a determined opponent. The US will lose this war.
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- SwampYankee@feddit.online ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  This is probably the best comment here so far. To emphasize the interceptor missile point, the US yesterday pulled interceptor systems from South Korea. You know, the place next to the nuclear-armed country that likes to lob missiles into the ocean just to show off. It should go without saying how dire the situation is if the US is redeploying interceptors from South Korea. Once interceptor stocks are depleted, Iran will be able to consistently, successfully strike targets inside US allied territory. There are some rumblings that Iran’s success rate is already increasing. Once this happens, Iran has the US & Israel backed into a corner even more than they already do.
  
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- Jarix@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  You aren’t the first person, but can you please define your abbreviations no one who needs to read your post knows at all what GCC
  
  For those who don’t know
  
  Gulf Cooperation Council
  
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  - TropicalDingdong@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Your correct and since this is no stupid questions, I should have defined that.
    
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- LadyButterfly@reddthat.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Oh fuck of course. It’s not just about oil reserves it’s about transportation of it. Thanks
  
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- U7826391786239@piefed.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  the point isn’t to “win.” the point is to be at war
  
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IWW4@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
So it’s very hard to illustrate all this in an online forum thread… So I’m gonna try and sort of simplify…

Israel has been very concerned that Iran will develop nuclear weapons, as they should be.

Iran has been executing a proxy war against Israel for 50 years.

Part of that proxy war involves a number of different organizations, one of which is basically in control of Palestine.

The Obama administration negotiated a treaty with Iran that lifted a number of sanctions if they allowed international inspectors to prevent them from enriching uranium, which is a key step in creating nuclear weapons.

The Trump administration in partnership with Israel View that as an absolute disaster.

So they ended the agreement. Which basically opened the door for a Iran to enrich uranium.

Israel has been wanting to bomb Iranian nuclear production sites for decades.

All those sites are underground.

The only country with the ability to bomb shit underground and destroy it is the United States.

One of the most dynamic military leaders in the history of man was an Iranian general who organized and managed that broad coalition of different organizations against Israel. It really is a feat and how well he managed and did all that.

The US military killed him in an airstrike.

The US military has destroyed……. Wow, bombed a number of the facilities that iran is enriching or uranium in.

The US military has also killed a number of the political leaders in Iran that’s what’s really messy.

You have to leave the guys alive to turn things off…. There’s no one left to turn things off

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- starlinguk@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  You forgot the bit where they’re trying to distract everyone from the Epstein files and the bit where they literally have no plan.
  
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  - IWW4@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Yeah, as much as the Internet wants to believe otherwise I don’t think the Epstein Files are really all that important to anyone in any power.
    
    You are correct. Nobody involved here has a plan. I mean Israel’s stated Objectiveis total victory yet Netanyahu’s Governmentcan’t articulate. What the hell that is…
    
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- mrdown@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Don’t believe anything this guy say. Israel want to destroy Iran so it can create a greater israel with no resistance
  
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  - IWW4@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Oh i apologize if my post paints isreal in a good light. There are no good guys here.
    
    I am going out that at the top of my post.
    
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- LadyButterfly@reddthat.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  HOLY SHIT. That is much worse tham I thought, i groaned when I read about the inspector being overturned. How did he justify that? Thanks for explaining that I’ve saved the comment.
  
  How the fuck can USA get out of this?
  
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  - IWW4@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    It is staggering what he gets away with.
    
    How can all of us get out of this mess? I do not know, nor do i think anyone else does either.
    
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- auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Hamas is an independent partner not a proxy.
  
  One that only done so well because Israel propped them up to prevent a more moderate government from forming.
  
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Carnelian@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Hiii so basically they fired everyone in the administration who said “Iran will curb stomp the US for many reasons, so like, don’t start a war with them” and then decided to start a war with them

One of the many reasons is that Iran preeeeety much has unilateral control over this extremely interesting geographic feature called “The Straight of Hormuz” which has been one of the most important strategic chokepoints in the world for literally thousands of years. Right at the moment the big thing it’s choking is some crazy number like 20% of the entire oil and natural gas supply for the entire planet earth.

So naturally the first thing that is already happening is gas prices skyrocketing. Of note: the way they’re controlling the straight is with missiles. So we’re also seeing extreme amounts of environmental destruction from the tankers that have exploded

What’s gonna happen long term is anyone’s guess

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- LadyButterfly@reddthat.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Oh fuck this is bad. Where will it go from here?
  
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  - Carnelian@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Well, my assumption is that someday soon, all the people of the world will take a step back and realize that the endless cycle of war is ultimately meaningless; that the cruelty and suffering can end, and we can finally step forward into an era of compassion for one another
    
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Tiresia@slrpnk.net ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Broadly speaking, the US is okay with invading Iran because Iran isn’t a US tributary and the Iranian state is unwilling to become a tributary because theocracy is incompatible with US tributary status (A king might swear fealty to an emperor, but god’s emissary can hardly submit to a heathen).

The primary objective of the US administration is to win the midterm elections. War has historically boosted Republican support under low-informations voters and centrists, and going by the standing ovation in Congress, Democrats are happy to go along with the narrative that this is a just war because they too support enforcing tributary status.

That takes care of the motive. The means is the US military-industrial complex. The opportunity comes in the form of the US breaking a nuclear non-proliferation treaty with Iran and then being outraged that Iran isn’t complying.

They could count on Iran not complying because Israel keeps attacking Iran (and its other neighbors), ensuring Iran will defend itself in a way that can be treated as offensive. Israel keeps attacking its neighbors because that is what the US pays them for and because their history of doing that means that if the US cut funding for unrendered services, many Israelis would have to flee to escape facing justice for their participation in genocide.

So that’s means, motive, and opportunity for the US attacking Iran. Now how will it go?

Firstly, the motive being elections means the US will keep the war going until at least after the midterms. Economic consequences of this can be spun as justifying Republican autarky. The biggest consequence would be oil shortages in most of the world. Countries with large domestic production and/or strategic reserves, including the US, Canada, China, Russia, and Venezuela, would be less affected or have their position strengthened (with Venezuela going along with the US because they now know what happens if they don’t).

In Iran, the US will keep bombing targets until it is satisfied ground resistance is sufficiently mollified, then move troops in to occupy. Given Iran’s geography and the theocratic nature of the current regime, it will likely be a phase of shattering state power followed by a phase of occupation and guerilla warfare.

The US will attempt to create safe zones from which the tributary government and military loyal to the US operate and grow in power, likely centered around urban areas, key infrastructure, and strategic resources. Given there is more support for regime change in Iran than in Afghanistan, the tributary government might attract enough loyal troops to slowly take over the fight against the loyalist guerillas and not collapse immediately when US support drops.

This invasion has bipartisan support so even the Trump administration being replaced would not stop it. I don’t know how long the Iranian state can resist, but as long as it does the blockade on the Strait of Hormuz will remain in place, and even after that guerillas will make that route unsafe. After that, getting the tributary government shipshape could take years or decades, on the long end probably getting cut off like Afghanistan.

Iran or its supporters may attempt asymmetric warfare. If the US government wants to, it could replicate 9/11 and its massive boost for Republican popularity by having a similar lack of curiosity about suspected upcoming attacks. There have been articles about a possible Iranian drone attack from a ship off the coast of California which could fail to be stopped. Similar attacks may occur on the rest of NATO, and slowly ebb as Iranian loyalist power diminishes.

The economic consequences of an oil shortage would naturally hit vulnerable targets hardest. Food delivery vehicles might not be able to afford a trip into remote rural areas during a famine, while Europe can rely on electrified modes of transport for day-to-day stuff and reserve oil for essential services.

Countries with more oil, such as Russia and the US, may take advantage of this situation. Ukraine is not looking so good.

At any time, the US could move on to the next crisis and either stretch itself thin or leave the Iranian tributary state without support in what would then be a civil war. Israel will continue its aggression until its funding gets cut and it collapses.

So it goes.

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- FearMeAndDecay@literature.cafe ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Good breakdown, but don’t forget that part of why this has bipartisan support in congress is because Benjamin Netanyahu, the pm of Israel, and much of the state of Israel really want to attack Iran and most USA congress members get funding from Israel. So they’ll support the war against Iran bc their AIPAC donors tell them to. The state of Israel can only warmonger bc the USA stands behind them and fights their battles, and the USA stands behind Israel and fights their battles bc they get a bunch of ~~bribes~~ donations from AIPAC. It also gives the USA a convenient way to paint brown people in the Middle East as “evil barbarians” when they justly defend themselves from Israel (see Palestine and Iran rn)
  
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redsand@infosec.pub ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Israel conducted a decades long blackmail scheme from the 80s into the forseeable future. They used this blackmail of the world’s most rich and powerful combined with information from decades of government software contracts and spying to control the US, UK and other governments to do a long list of things including tell Donald and Benjamin to start this war.

TL;DR Operation Epstein Fury should credit Israel and the Maxwells

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mech@feddit.org ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Iran refused to sell oil using US$ as currency and supplied Hamas with missiles to shoot at Israel. So they were a pain in the US’ and Israel’s ass.
When spies found out that Iran’s leadership would meet in a place that isn’t underground, and Iran’s ally Russia was kinda busy, the US saw a rare opportunity to decapitate the state. For political reasons they asked Israel to strike first.
That was about as much thought as went into the attack.
Iran struck out against every US and Israeli ally in range and closed the straight of Hormus in retaliation, which blocks 20% of global oil trade.

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- tea@lemmy.today ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  I honestly don’t know if US was driving the ship on the decapitation strike. I think Netanyahu might have been the one who wanted to take the shot and Trump just saw it as a convenient distraction at a time when he desperately needs a distraction. Neither here nor there, really, because both are in it together. Maybe they both (Trump and Netanyahu) had their foot on the gas?
  
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  - mech@feddit.org ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    politico.com/…/white-house-politics-israel-strike…
    
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driving_crooner@lemmy.eco.br ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Israel wants to des stabilize Iran and become the uncontested regional power on the middle east towards their Great Israel goal.

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greenbit@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Iirc there’s a false flag on us soil coming

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- Nickelalloy@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  I will just leave my comment here as a little time stamp.
  
  But yes, as a way to justify for actions from the US and distract the public.
  
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- nutsack@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  why would they need a false flag? they’re shooting bombs already
  
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  - loomi@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Make Americans angry enough to forget they are against this and Trump lied about “no new wars” and $20 / gallon gas
    
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  - greenbit@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    To push the next control method
    
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  - FearMeAndDecay@literature.cafe ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    9/11 didn’t just make people support war in the Middle East, it also made them support a whole bunch of surveillance within the USA under the guise of “preventing another 9/11 by catching the terrorist activity before they hurt anyone.” Of course, they’ve used this increased surveillance against dissidents far more than to stop terrorists. If there was a “terrorist attack” on USA soil again, then the GOP and congress would absolutely jump on the opportunity to enact broad voter id laws, facial recognition software, and age/id verification online laws while claiming its to protect “terrorist immigrants from voting in elections and tracking terrorists irl and online.” They would probably also use it to justify even more intense ICE operations and harassment, painting anyone who goes against the Trump admin and his gestapo force as terrorists or terrorist sympathizers. They’re already trying to do all of this, they just lack broad public support, but a false flag operation might be how they try to gain that support
    
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HobbitFoot@thelemmy.club ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
As for “what will happen next”, the USA seems to want a cease fire and Iran is tired of getting bombed randomly, so Iran is going to close the Strait of Hormuz until it can get a better deal that means something. Israel and the USA don’t seem to want to make that kind of deal.

So Iran is going to start a recession by restricting oil supply for the rest of the world to get the rest of the world to intervene or to get that agreement from the USA and Israel.

This will likely last until November, when the midterm election is supposed to happen. Trump wasn’t popular already. A recession caused by military action is going to get a lot of people pissed. That recession will likely pop the AI bubble, both due to a loss of market liquidity and increased energy prices fueling AI.

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- SpaceNoodle@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  Don’t get my hopes up
  
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  - tea@lemmy.today ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    My sense is that Trump is going for the “we’re at war and therefore it would be imprudent to have elections” argument. I agree that this will drag on, but I think it depends on if Trump is able to successfully pull off the first ever skipped election in US history.
    
    I don’t think his supreme court would go that low to allow it, but…the chance that he succeeds is not 0%, which fucking sucks.
    
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humanspiral@lemmy.ca ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
US miscalculated by listening to Netanyahu 40 year old powerpoint for some reason.

Killing Ayatolahs and grade school girls was an intentional act to galvanize Iranian unity behind IRGC to fight longer and privilege to spend more on weapons industry. This was best scenario for US oil industry to hike prices as Trump says “the more we fuck up world, the more money we make”

Problem: Iran has power to control global economy, and strike through Israel defenses, and fuck over GCC US colonies that have historically bribed the US, and Trump specifically, to protect them. All US bases in region are destroyed.

The US has not only failed to protect its non-Israeli allies, it has cannibalized missile defense systems from Asia to better protect Israel. It is utterly incapable of having any influence on critical global shipping channel that is the Straits of Hormuz next to Iran.

Bahrain opened its demonic zionazi pig fucker fuck face to UN to condemn Iran but not axis of evil for their problems. Zionazi axis agreed with them, but they got proper fucked 3 hours later.

TO HAPPEN NEXT:

US needs a denuclearized Iran to give Trump a “declaration of victory”. Only path is to buy Iran’s enriched uranium for $10M per kg, or about $6B for current estimated stockpiles, and so effectively pay reparations to Iran as their current maximalist demands include. Lifiting sanctions/embargoes is necessarily part of the deal.

GCC stop being zionazi stooges, because Israel has demonstrated that their destruction is more important to US than the US protection they were bribing for. US won’t even pretend to GAF about them and offer to pay for reconstructing infrastructure or their bases. GCC joins BRICS and allies with Iran. Israel gets less ambitious about Greater Israel, and worries about little Israel.

The hard question is how does Israel and its US puppet rulership handle Israel’s failure, and collapse of US power illusion? Zionazi DNC funding increases, and DNC wins mid terms, and US focuses on preserving little Israel, while keeping us educated on Holocaust and anti-Semitism, is a meh outcome to lay low for the next offensive on humanity.

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- DontRedditMyLemmy@lemmy.world ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  All US bases in the region are destroyed?
  
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  - humanspiral@lemmy.ca ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    Yes. verified by satellite, though not a giant crater. Rather key building heavily damaged and radars unusable. Radars is special equipment through US contractors, but rest of base can be repaired with local labour. Still, colonies view of the bases is that it makes them a target without any protection use/value at all. If US still had good relations with GCC, there would be a congressional bill or emergency budget allocation dedicated to their reconstruction already.
    
    GCC is not just key to world economy. It is key to US financialization bubble/success, and the ones Trump was boasting will be paying for MAGA. Among pure direct bribes to Trump, a $400M plane, $500M for a crypto scam, and funding Zionazi Elison’s takeover of TikTok, Paramount/WB. Their betrayal is so extreme, that they are certain to shift alliance to China/BRICS who will outbid the US for GCC friendship.
    
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blimthepixie@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Think it’s time you watched Dr Strangelove

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hanrahan@slrpnk.net ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
with no boots on the ground, Iran has already won as there will be no regime change.

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Rentlar@lemmy.ca ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Trump and his staffers are desperately trying to find a way to TACO but still somehow claim victory like his other two expeditions in Venezuela and Iran (2025), because it clearly didn’t have the effect they thought it would have like when Bush II did it.

Unlike the US, Iranian forces had a plan that was formulated for years. Doesn’t mean things will go as they envision, due to US, Israeli, Gulf state, and internal factors putting a lot of uncertainty in the mix. Iran is okay with the current situation in the short term unlike the US, but there is elevated risk for a potential coup, an Israeli-style drawn out genocide and annexation, just a stalemate war of air defense attrition, or who knows what in Iran. There will be pressure from all sides to figure something amicable between the belligerents, hopefully sooner than later.

I predict: Oil/gas prices will stay high for months, air ship and truck transportation costs will be somewhat higher and goods will be a little higher for the same period. Over the next year, governments, businesses and people will turn to electricity and renewables pretty much out of necessity (look at Indian residents turning to Induction Stoves in droves) that will lower our needs for fuel which will hopefully offset the shock from future oil supply crunches. Optimistically, it could accelerate the world’s efforts to net zero.

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polaris64@lemmy.ml ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Trump seizes control of the oil production in Venezuela, then attacks Iran causing them to block the strait of Hormuz and oil prices to skyrocket. Profit.

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HuntressHimbo@lemmy.zip ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Trump issued a threat to Iran before negotiations started that he fully intended to carry out regardless. He then launched a series of missile attacks against Iran with the stated goal of regime change and the cooperation of Israel. Iran’s leadership was hit in the early bombings, but they had been preparing for an attack and launched counteroffensives against US bases all over the region, and closed a vital oil shipping route.

Trumps administration is unhinged and vile, so the early targets also included a girls school and many other civilian targets. Hegseth has been going on rants about how there will be no rules. Congress for their part, came together to fail at enacting a war powers resolution that would have made this ?more? Illegal. True bipartisanship in action. For their part many European states have followed suit, by either tacitly endorsing the war or simply refusing to note that the US and Israel are the obvious aggressors. Spain being a bright spot on that front.

Irans’s attacks have been expanding as the US keeps attacking. They seem focused on building pressure internationally to end the war, but are also hitting places that are supporting or housing US or Israeli troops.

For the why, its hard to say. This is a confluence of the entire US political classes obsession with provoking war in the middle east. Schumer, Graham, and the bipartisan warpigs are doing everything they can to justify the war or slow people trying to stop it. Trump for his part is barely there mentally, but has floated war with Iran as a solution to dire political numbers before. He also just seized a bunch of oil from Venezuela and might see the oil supply crisis as an opportunity to profit. There is no motive too low to consider tbh. Worth considering how much is really Trump and how much is Stephen Miller puppeting the gilded meat sack around.

Israels imperial ambitions are also not to be discounted and they’ve been pushing for this for ages.

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heyWhatsay@slrpnk.net ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
There was the hope of an uprising from the Iranian people, but 30 thousand protestors killed, and now a response to this war, seems less likely at this point.

Two future timelines I currently see as possibilities:

The US will pull back, mostly to support Israel and protect transport ships, occasionally firing long distant strikes. (an unlikely best case scenario)

Or

A lingering war that will continue through to next presidential election, and used as an excuse to not leave the role as potus. (a more likely horrible scenario)
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- LadyButterfly@reddthat.com ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
  2 is my fear. He started jan 6th to try to stay he’s maybe thinking long term goals here. A lot of people would see a war as a good reason to keep him on. He really does friggten me
  
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  - heyWhatsay@slrpnk.net ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
    He took examples from Ukraine and Israel on how war can extend a presidency, so its to be expected at this point.
    
    People should forget about trying to wait for a vote to change the leadership, and demand impeachment with countless legal reasons available.
    
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atropa@piefed.social ⁨2⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago
Trump will lose the war with Iran ,one way or another

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