auraithx
@auraithx@lemmy.dbzer0.com
- Comment on Lemmy needs AI. 1 day ago:
You jest, but the translate comments feature on Reddit now is pretty amazing and makes the web much bigger.
- Comment on Feddit.org officially announces they will ban criticism of Israel and pro-Palestinian posts and comments. 2 days ago:
You can block the instance, which I’ve just done. Fuck these Nazis
- Comment on Is it normal for people to ask where you are from online? 4 days ago:
Guy from HK in my DMs trying to get me to video call him.
There are plenty of scammers out there too, but some people are just lonely or curious. They might’ve just recently got internet and the only interaction they’ve had previously is from within their slum.
- Comment on If Christians were real, they’d be lining up to post for their sins (not trying to avoid judgement). 5 days ago:
Where they at though
- Comment on What would it mean for the world if America was confident they developed a technology that would act as a fool prove deterrent from nuclear attacks what would that mean for the rest of the world? 6 days ago:
We’re cooked.
- Comment on Comment your strangest/dumbest cursed images that you find funny for no reason 6 days ago:
- Comment on Selling BTC or not..? 6 days ago:
It’s just my own analysis all things considered in alignment with Strauss-Howe generational theory which predicts a mass realignment within the next ten years.
Unfortunately hellish dystopia realignment is the most probable currently. But the fascists have co-opted Bitcoin so probably pump anyway.
- Comment on Lies, Damned Lies, and LLMs: AI is a Con 1 week ago:
Yes this was a specific problem with Gemini. They obviously tried to over correct for hallucinations and being too gullible, but it ended up making it certain of its hallucinations.
Hallucination rate for their latest model is 0.7%
github.com/vectara/hallucination-leaderboard
Should be <0.1% within a year
- Comment on Selling BTC or not..? 1 week ago:
Below is a probability‑weighted baseline for Bitcoin’s average spot price (USD) in each calendar year through 2035, with an 80 % confidence band that reflects:
- Crypto‑native factors – post‑halving supply shocks in 2024 and 2028, ETF demand, miner economics.
- Macro & policy vectors – the stagflation/authoritarian scenarios you asked about, plus rates, dollar strength, CBDCs and potential crack‑downs.
- Adoption growth – institutional weight (e.g., spot‑ETF inflows) and retail penetration in the US/UK.
Year Expected Avg. Price 80 % Band Primary Drivers & Assumptions 2025 $130 k $ 90 k – $ 160 k Post‑2024 halving tailwind, spot‑ETF inflows ($4 bn in three weeks), Standard Chartered’s Q2 guide of $120 k seen as floor. 2026 $170 k $ 110 k – $ 220 k Typical cycle peak 12‑18 mo after halving; ETF share could top 6 % of float; mild US recession & regulatory chill cap euphoria. 2027 $125 k $ 80 k – $ 180 k Post‑peak draw‑down phase; tighter US/UK KYC plus macro softness; safe‑haven bids offset some selling. 2028‡ $140 k $ 90 k – $ 250 k ‡Next halving (≈ Apr 2028) halves issuance; authoritarian capital‑flight tail‑risk vs. harsher AML/CBDC clamp‑downs. 2029 $350 k $ 200 k – $ 500 k Historical bull‑run year after halving; dollar‑confidence slide in debt‑crisis scenario; first major corporate‑treasury allocations in UK. 2030 $500 k $ 300 k – $ 900 k Ark Invest base‑case $710 k anchors upside; widespread Lightning/merchant use, but possible US transaction‑monitoring tax. 2031 $600 k $ 400 k – $ 1 m Network‑effect compounding; mining margin squeeze pushes hash abroad; some states treat BTC as strategic reserve. 2032 $700 k $ 500 k – $ 1.2 m Pre‑halving anticipation; institutional allocators raise target weights to 5 % portfolio average. 2033 $850 k $ 600 k – $ 1.5 m Post‑halving rally phase; digital‑dollar + UK‑Gov CBDC coexist, but capital‑controls risk tempers upside. 2034 $1.0 m $ 700 k – $ 1.8 m If Ark bull‑case ($1.5 m–$2.4 m) starts to realise, corporate pension funds and sovereign wealth pile in; crackdown probability still ~25 %. 2035 $1.2 m $ 800 k – $ 2.1 m Mature asset narrative, but split world: high‑surveillance blocs cap convertibility while liberal blocs treat BTC as “digital gold.” How the bands were built
- Cycle template – every prior halving produced a peak ~500‑600 days later; we applied a ±35 % volatility buffer around those glide‑paths.
- Macro stress scenarios – the stagflation/authoritarian track adds 0–30 % premium (capital flight) or subtracts up to 25 % (criminalisation/transaction bans), weighted by our timeline probabilities.
- Adoption curve – ETF ownership share, corporate‑treasury penetration, and UK/US retail ownership each follow S‑curves calibrated to 2010‑2024 data.
- Regulatory shock factor – discrete risk of US/UK banning self‑custody (~10 % by 2030) or imposing punitive taxes (~25 %), trimmed from the top end of each confidence band.
Key caveats
- Black‑swans – protocol failures, quantum‑attack breakthroughs, or global wartime asset freezes could break the model.
- Confidence bands widen after 2030 because crypto’s long‑run variance remains ~70 % annualised.
- Not investment advice – projections are directional estimates, not guarantees.
These price lanes integrate the authoritarian‑risk timeline you requested; should political repression stifle fiat on‑/off‑ramps faster than expected, the lower bounds would dominate. Conversely, if capital controls bite while self‑custody remains legal, the upper bounds could look conservative.
- Comment on [deleted] 1 week ago:
It’s not it’s mostly daft memes and pictures. I wish it was more political.
- Comment on What would it mean for the world if America was confident they developed a technology that would act as a fool prove deterrent from nuclear attacks what would that mean for the rest of the world? 1 week ago:
I think the US has already achieved it and aren’t saying anything.
Think how much money they’ve poured in there over the decades, as much as the rest of the world combined.
They were working on directed energy weapons in the 80s to neutralise them from space, but the tech was ‘decades away’. They had a working pilot way back in 2000 too.
- Comment on If children are taught to read by AI there is no shot they don't teach them wrong and change language for ever. 3 weeks ago:
If this post the bar, it’s a low one to beat.
- Comment on [deleted] 3 weeks ago:
What’s wild is my grandparents are in their 70s and my kids will be in their 70s when they see 2100.
And I had kids late (34), if I had followed the same rate as pretty much every generation prior to me back to the dawn of man - it’d be my grandkids in their 80s at 2100.
- Comment on Discord co-founder and CEO Jason Citron is stepping down 3 weeks ago:
The names escaping me but there’s a site you can use that turns your discord into a publicly accessible website / archive.
Check out mautrix-discord too if you’re a server admin, you can puppet everything there and switch seamlessly.
- Comment on Heat pumps to be sold ‘smart-ready’ in plans to save households money 3 weeks ago:
You just need to fit a few treacle extractor vents. Takes sometime with the right tools a few minutes to do.
- Comment on Uncovered emails showed how Meta struggled to keep Facebook culturally relevant 4 weeks ago:
They could’ve just added some opt-in privacy features / data protection and people would’ve loved it.
- Comment on How wil people react if Trump is right about Tariffs? 5 weeks ago:
Brother you should take a step back from politics if this is the depth of analysis you’re capable of.
- Comment on Majority of AI Researchers Say Tech Industry Is Pouring Billions Into a Dead End 1 month ago:
Does your left nut give people 20:10 vision? Because AI already is. Can it detect cancer before a human can? Is it accelerating fighting antibiotic resistance, protein synthesis, and testing new medications?
Shut the fuck up idiot.
- Comment on Majority of AI Researchers Say Tech Industry Is Pouring Billions Into a Dead End 1 month ago:
Even the open models released today you can run on your own can boost your productivity massively if you know what you’re doing. Most people here are just too daft to know what they’re doing and parrot whatever shite memes have told them to think.
- Comment on Majority of AI Researchers Say Tech Industry Is Pouring Billions Into a Dead End 1 month ago:
The cope on this sub is so bad sometimes. AI is already revolutionary.
- Comment on Did sites end up making money from API restrictions? 2 months ago:
You can still scrape Reddit without the api. Main reason was to prevent people using 3rd party apps.
- Comment on Kill your Feeds - Stop letting algorithms dictate how you think 2 months ago:
Maybe stop sticking your head in the sand? 🤷
- Comment on Why do most Americans use an iPhone? 2 months ago:
Because id rather pay more for a product than be it.
- Comment on Jellyfin is not just good... but *better* than Plex now?! 2 months ago:
They both suck.
Long live Stremio.
- Comment on Why do most Americans use an iPhone? 2 months ago:
I have no need for third party apps.
For anything beyond texting or scrolling, I have a desktop.
- Comment on Does Aphantasia exist for senses other than vision? 2 months ago:
People with aphantasia have improved spatial memory that tries to compensate for episodic memory.
So the first thing that I feel when I try to remember something is my position in the room, or where the person speaking to me was standing.
Same thing if I try and ‘see’ a circle. I’ll just feel the dimensions. Hard to describe but it’s almost like pressure in my frontal cortex. A circle feels like coming down from the left and right in a circular pattern, whereas a tree feels like the pressure is at the bottom pushing up.
- Comment on Does Aphantasia exist for senses other than vision? 2 months ago:
Yes I’m blind across all internal senses.
- Comment on Developer creates endless Wikipedia feed to fight algorithm addiction 3 months ago:
;/
Algorithms themselves are fine. It’s wikipedia. I’d actually use it if it brought me to interesting pages based on a recommender algorithm.
- Comment on You Can’t Post Your Way Out of Fascism | Authoritarians and tech CEOs now share the same goal: to keep us locked in an eternal doomscroll instead of organizing against them 3 months ago:
Doesn’t really work once spaces are established. Most of reddits problems aren’t the admins, it’s the volunteers.
