And then AI will just go away and everything will go back to normal again, yes? It'll suddenly stop working and so people will stop using it for all the things they're currently using it for.
5 Signs the AI Bubble is About to Burst
Submitted 12 hours ago by 0x0@lemmy.zip to technology@lemmy.world
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_L1JbzDnEMk
Comments
FaceDeer@fedia.io 6 hours ago
philosloppy@lemmy.world 2 hours ago
consider the Dot Com Bubble: the internet obviously didn’t disappear but that doesn’t mean there weren’t serious economic consequences.
very_well_lost@lemmy.world 5 hours ago
people will stop using it for all the things they’re currently using it for
They will when AI companies can no longer afford to eat their own costs and start charging users a non-subsidized price. How many people would keep using AI if it cost $1 per query? $5? $20?
OpenAI lost $5 billion last year. Billion, with a B. Even their premium customers lose them money on every query, and eventually the faucet of VC cash propping this whole thing up is gonna run dry when investors inevitably realize that there’s no profitable business model to justify this technology. At that point, AI firms will have no choice but to pass their costs on to the customer, and there’s no way the customer is going to stick around when they realize how expensive this technology actually is in practice.
Womble@piefed.world 4 hours ago
There are free open models you can go and download right now, that are better than SOTA 12-18 months ago, and that cost you less to run on a gaming PC than playing COD does. Even if openai, anthropic et al disappeared without a trace tomorrow AI wouldnt go away.
FaceDeer@fedia.io 4 hours ago
I run local LLMs and they cost me $0 per query. I don't plan to charge myself more than that at any point, even if the AI bubble bursts.
Ulrich@feddit.org 6 hours ago
Yes, just like the internet died after the dotcom bust.
dk841143@lemmy.dbzer0.com 5 hours ago
I highly doubt it will, but I would not be sad if it did.
petrjanda@gonzo.markets 10 hours ago
With Shiller PE at 40x, only fools are investing right now into the market right now. History will be the judge again in due time. It’s a repeat of the 1920s.
Lag@lemmy.world 6 hours ago
Where do you invest then? Because keeping all cash sounds bad at the moment too.
petrjanda@gonzo.markets 5 hours ago
I’ve committed a substantial amount into copper in my retirement account.
As far as spare cash, I’m just investing it into my 2 houses.
Bitswap@lemmy.dbzer0.com 6 hours ago
Yeah, but how much higher will it go before it falls. Also, what are you doing with $$ you would otherwise be investing?
rimu@piefed.social 9 hours ago
Ugurcan@lemmy.world 9 hours ago
I don’t know what to feel about “AI is gonna burst” is the new clickbait title for… like a few months now.
anotherspinelessdem@lemmy.ml 7 hours ago
The “what” is inevitable, the “when” is the real unknown. Governments and financiers can delay things for an impressive amount of time but the other shoe must inevitably drop, and often it’s all the worse for the amount of time it was held off.
FaceDeer@fedia.io 6 hours ago
It's what lots of people really want to have happen, so headlines that say it's going to happen are going to be extremely popular.
very_well_lost@lemmy.world 4 hours ago
Man… I don’t know if want is the right word here. I want AI to go away, but I’m not sure I want the bubble to burst. I’ve heard estimates that something like 20% of all VC money went to AI in 2024. That’s a shitload of cash, and if the bubble bursts (which I believe it eventually will) and all that invested money vanishes, the economy is going to crater. Maybe a few rich assholes will be ruined in the aftermath, but the ensuing recession is going to hurt the people at the bottom the most… just like it always does.
It’s hard to look forward to that, even when you hate AI with a searing passion.
Hector@lemmy.world 12 hours ago
If the last 5 years has taught me anything, it is that stock prices are completely divorced from the realities of the fundamentals of business. It is a clown economy and more like a casino then an honest measure of what a stock is worth. Especially with tech.
AI is way overhyped, to a level we perhaps have never seen before, but I would not expect the stock prices too reflect that.
Look at Tesla. The intrinsic value was no more than 10 billion before he started sieg heiling on national TV and alienated half of the western world.
What will continue to drive the stock prices is the support or acquiescence of governments to it. Do you the United States and the rest that follow.
cecilkorik@lemmy.ca 11 hours ago
Agreed. One rule of the stock market is that while it might theoretically rely on sound fundamentals, it can stay irrational longer than you (or anyone) can stay solvent. It will inevitably fall screaming towards reality eventually, but there’s no guarantee it will happen within any reasonable timeframe and expecting it to is dangerous. It’s a rigged casino, the house always wins, and when they don’t their goons will grab you when you try to leave. At this point the billionaires own pretty much the entire house, and their goons are running the world’s largest military and police state. “Invest” at your own risk.
Hector@lemmy.world 9 hours ago
I think there is a fundamental difference now, the government has bailed out stocks twice in 2008 and 2020. Moved Heaven and Earth with the fed and indirect injections of capital to prevent the rich from losing money. So these stock prices reflect tax dollars billing them out in the downturn.
ISOmorph@feddit.org 10 hours ago
Serious question. With inflation absolutely exploding everywhere, stock market being what you just described here, and property ownership being virtually impossible due to big corpos gulping everything up: how is anyone supposed to prevent their money from melting away nowadays?
wetbeardhairs@lemmy.dbzer0.com 9 hours ago
My conspiracy theory is that Musk gave multiple investors billions of his personal cash to invest in Tesla stock at key moments. He tells his straw purchasers when to buy hundreds of millions worth of stock in order to pump the price and kill those who short the stock. This scares the shorters out of the market and ultimately removes a natural source of downward pressure on the price. They sell off what they purchase all at once relatively slowly so they can then do it again.
Hector@lemmy.world 9 hours ago
I had a similar sort of thought but figured it was an automated thing, where they would buy or sell to manipulate the market price with the fund removed from the owners of stock.
Something like that could have made a fortune as the stock price was gaining and as such been able to manipulate the shit out of the stock price and fuck short Sellers and everything.
Ilovethebomb@sh.itjust.works 11 hours ago
The price isn’t based on what the company is worth, it’s based on what people think the company will be worth in the future. Clearly, a lot of people believe that truly autonomous vehicles are just around the corner, and AI is going to revolutionise everything.
They’re most likely wrong, but it will take a long time for the market to accept that.
Hector@lemmy.world 10 hours ago
No rational person would think that Tesla would command the majority of that market of autonomous vehicles, robots, or whatever. Especially not after their Flagship truck turned out to suck in like 20 different ways.
suicidaleggroll@lemmy.world 10 hours ago
Not a single person in their right mind thinks that Tesla will ever be worth its current $1.3T market cap. Stock price is based on whether the market movers (not you or I) think that the price will be higher or lower a few weeks/months from now, that’s it. The actual intrinsic worth of the company makes no difference.
FreedomAdvocate@lemmy.net.au 10 hours ago
You’re correct about how the stock price works, but I’d go even further to add that it’s also based on what a small percentage of very wealthy people/funds want it to be at the time. The markets are so insanely easy to manipulate by them.
As for the rest, it’s almost certain that you’re the one that’s wrong - autonomous vehicles are absolutely the future. They could essentially end road fatalities, as well as allow commute time to be included as work hours as people could work while being driven to work, passive income via auto-taxi etc.
AI/LLM/etc, there’s zero doubt here that it is going to - if it hasn’t already, which I’d argue it already has - revolutionise the world. It’s already completely changing many industries beyond belief, and its uses and “intelligence” is already growing exponentially. It’s just the cool thing to hate by anti-capitalists/lefties because of various reasons, and make no mistake - the anti-AI people, and the people who think it’s just a fad or that it’s overrated, will be looked at like the people who thought of cars in the same way.
What we have now is like the DOS of AI and self driving cars compared to the Windows XP/7/11 versions that are coming, but the detractors are acting like it’s the finished product and will never improve. It’s here to stay, and what we have now is only scratching the surface.