I'm really unnerved by it. What are the potential consequences?
“How did you go bankrupt?” Bill asked.
“Two ways,” Mike said. “Gradually and then suddenly.”
History’s like that too. People took their best guesses, but nobody knew for sure.
How bad is it that Israel has attacked Iran?
Submitted 9 months ago by LadyButterfly@piefed.blahaj.zone to nostupidquestions@lemmy.world
Comments
Sergio@lemmy.world 9 months ago
altphoto@lemmy.today 9 months ago
I know Lindsey Graham is waiting to laugh at Gretta when she tries to go into Iran to feed whoever might be left. Maybe something like “oh I hope they know how to ride donkeys!” That’s what we can expect now from those politicians.
cecinestpasunbot@lemmy.ml 9 months ago
It really depends on how far both sides are willing to escalate.
Israel appears to be emboldened for a variety of reasons. Nobody is stopping their genocide. Hezbollah is on its back foot. Netanyahu sees political gain in a war with Iran. Trump is reckless enough to not reign Israel in.
However, Israel cannot wage all out war without the backing of the US. Iran knows this which is why I think their responses to past Israeli attacks have been fairly measured. These attacks are a serious escalation though and it’s hard to say how Iran may decide to respond.
If they seriously think the US is ready to back Israel in an all out war then we’re going to face consequences globally. Iran has the capacity to obliterate much of the middle east’s oil infrastructure, which the US is heavily invested in. That could cause energy prices to spike and create all kinds of downstream havoc for the global economy.
Witchfire@lemmy.world 9 months ago
I fully expect Trump to say something like “Israel has the right to defend its newly earned territory from Iranian invaders”
LadyButterfly@piefed.blahaj.zone 9 months ago
Ah good point, there's all the other outcomes that aren't just military.
JacksonLamb@lemmy.world 9 months ago
It has implications for nuclear armament. Netanyahu needs a forever war to stay in power, and Iran is now further incentivized to arm itself to deter that.
Other countries in similar positions are seeing how having agreed to a non proliforation deal in the past with the US has panned out for Iran.
So more nuclear armament is probably more attractive to certain countries who don’t want to be the Iran or Ukraine of their regions.
Know_not_Scotty_does@lemmy.world 9 months ago
Realistically I am less worried about a proper military to military engagement and more of an asymmetrical response.
They don’t need to have a nuclear program to do a dirty bomb or other similar attack on a civilian population. It doesn’t even have to be an official Iranian response directly, there are enough proxies around there that could fuck shit up for a lot of people.
As for the likelihood of this, its a crapshoot. Someone with more connections or experience can tell you that.
themeatbridge@lemmy.world 9 months ago
Well, it could be really bad, or it might only be a little bit bad.
Israel has nuclear weapons, Iran has been trying to develop nuclear weapons and probably has them, and both sides believe God is on their side.
Rhynoplaz@lemmy.world 9 months ago
Meanwhile, God’s over here saying “Woah there guys, don’t bring ME in the middle of this. I told all y’all Thou shalt not kill.”
Bytemeister@lemmy.world 9 months ago
That’s glossing over the many times he tells people to kill each other.
Libra@lemmy.ml 9 months ago
Potentially very bad. Iran has previously vowed to retaliate with full force against any attack, including ‘targeting all US military bases “within our reach”.’ If they launch attacks at Israel that will escalate, but if they make good on that last part it could get very bad very quick.
But right now i have no way to gauge how serious Iran was about those claims or if it intends to make good on them, so the ball’s in their court.
LadyButterfly@piefed.blahaj.zone 9 months ago
Thanks mate, realistically how much will other nations intervene?
Libra@lemmy.ml 9 months ago
Israel will definitely retaliate (for the strikes that are retaliating against its strikes, it just goes round and round.) The US is moving naval assets into the region so they’re apparently taking the threat seriously. It was a combination of the US, UK, France, Germany, and ~50 other nations that voted to declare Iran in violation of the nuclear non-proliferation treaty so they likely have a vested interest as well, but Europe isn’t nearly as gung-ho about this sort of thing as the US is so they’re likely to let us take the lead if it goes that far. Iran’s neighbors have been trying to normalize relations with Israel for a while now but Israel doesn’t have puppet strings on them like we have on Israel so they likely won’t get involved. This is probably going to stay an Israel-Iran(-US) thing for a bit, but again it depends on how serious Iran wants to take this. I expect their losses in enrichment facilities were something baked into the cost of the program so they’re probably not too stuffed over that, but they’ve lost at least two high-ranking military commanders that I’ve heard of so far and that thing does tend to get their panties in a bunch.
It’s all speculation at this point, and wild-assed, largely-uninformed speculation especially on my part, so I’m not going to try to lay odds on it. But there is definitely the potential for more trouble coming down the pike.
slazer2au@lemmy.world 9 months ago
There will be no fallout from it. Israel has too many ties to Europe and Americans for Iran to do anything about it.
One day I hope Israel will be held accountable for their actions but that day will not be until after we all are dead.
humanspiral@lemmy.ca 9 months ago
70/30 this is right. Too many in middle east are friends to US to side too hard with Iran. Only Russia is a strong enough ally to destroy Tel Aviv, but most of US approaches to Russia have involved US statements that “Russia agrees that Iran should never have nuclear weapons” which means it is their primary concern with Russia discussions, even though Russia never mentions it in their statements.
Tolerance for Israel seems high, and world seems to have bigger priorities.
untakenusername@sh.itjust.works 9 months ago
I dont think we know yet and that uncertainty isn’t making it any better
LadyButterfly@piefed.blahaj.zone 9 months ago
Ahhhh I see thanks
southsamurai@sh.itjust.works 9 months ago
Worst case, world war three. If enough other countries back Iran, they might retaliate in a way that triggers something like the nato treaty and you get some combination of countries compelled to do something, which could set off a series of conflicts that might spread.
More likely, some skirmishes and back and forth attacks happen, but nobody outside the region becomes involved directly.
Or, Iran could just posture and use it as political leverage to strengthen their position with allies and the various blocs around the world.
Obviously, there’s variants of those, and plenty of really unlikely options. But based on how iran has acted in the past and how little anyone is pressuring Israel currently, it doesn’t seem like it will escalate unless something else changes
LadyButterfly@piefed.blahaj.zone 9 months ago
Thanks that's really easy to understand
cmeio@lemmy.world 9 months ago
It can’t trigger the NATO treaty, as neither Israel nor Iran are NATO members
southsamurai@sh.itjust.works 9 months ago
That’s true enough, and that’s why I said that if Iran was backed by others and that retaliated in a way that might.
Let’s say Iran blames the UK, so they explode something there. Or one of their allies decides to pull fuckery in Germany.
That’s what I was talking about.
Sanctus@lemmy.world 9 months ago
Honestly theres a path to WW3 here. But it could jot be that serious. It would be interesting to see how the US cozies up to Russia while attacking its ally Iran.
flandish@lemmy.world 9 months ago
We are already “in” ww3, except because the US and Israel and their allies are the bad guys, it’s not marketed as such.
neidu3@sh.itjust.works 9 months ago
I’m curious to learn your take on who the “good guys” are in this context.
A_Union_of_Kobolds@lemmy.world 9 months ago
Right it could either be a huge fuckin problem or life will just go on
mlg@lemmy.world 9 months ago
I honestly think Iran is too defanged to make a difference with escalation. Israel flexed their capability heavily and eliminated part of Iran’s C&C and a lot of their military and nuclear assets in one go, and they’re still continuing with strikes for any mop up.
It’s a win-win situation for them because they’ve got the US to defend them and they can go almost full force on whatever they deem a threat.
It might technically backfire for Netanyahu if Iran fails to mount any serious counteroffensive, at which point he won’t have any escalation path to stay in power, but it’s still a big win for Israel’s interests.
Also not related to the question, but this proves HTS in Syria is just another CIA project that will follow Washington’s demands no questions asked since they clearly allowed Israel to operate within their airspace.
LadyButterfly@piefed.blahaj.zone 9 months ago
Thanks mate. What do you think Netanyahu really wants?