Submitted 5 months ago by Sarsaparilla@aussie.zone to australia@aussie.zone
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=y-awK6lMrMk
The press conference is currently still live so this was the best short video I could find on the topic.
To begin, I’m absolutely against this proposal, but I want to see a discussion - hopefully a constructive one - between Aussies (comments are always turned off for Australian news on YT) to gauge some idea of how people generally feel about the idea.
Fire off.
The thing is, if Labor had announced such a completely undercooked policy - no timelines, no validation, lots of contradictions, and most importantly, no costings whatsoever - the media would be collectively crucifying them. And I’m not talking about the polite way The Guardian or The Conversation are dissecting the policy and bringing counterpoints. No, it would be open season in the most derogatory and aggressive language possible.
The fact that Dutton can bring this to a press conference and not get laughed out of the room is just utterly sad.
I just saw an opinion piece by Chris Kenny in the Australian whinging that the “majority” of the media isn’t giving Dutton a free ride on nuclear. Bro you are the majority of the media. ABC and the Guardians have much smaller audiences
If nuclear was so brilliant the private sector would have done it already. They haven’t because the cost far outweighs the benefit.
And as far taxpayer intervention goes to prop it up I just don’t see any compelling evidence to suggest investment in nuclear will give you better bang for your buck than renewables.
In some countries without much wind, sun and waves nuclear might make sense provided they could cheaply get uranium and dispose it cheaply. That’s not Australia and we have options.
better bang for your buck
No, you’ll definitely get bang with nuclear 💥💥💥
Lol ba boom! ching!
Not taking sides here, but the private sector couldn’t have done it because laws specifically prevent them.
Too slow to build, too expensive, and entirely unsuited for a renewable heavy grid because the economics require it is left on at all times. And that renewable heavy grid will happen even if they ban all further renewable rollouts, simply from individuals and businesses adding more panels and batteries. Is the grid going to curtail all of that solar energy just so nuclear can be left on?
The whole thing is a transparent attempt by the fossil fuel industry to delay the renewable rollout for as long as possible, just so they can make a few more dollars. And the Coalition are ready and willing to do their bidding.
The LNP could not build car parks.
There is zero chance of this happening even if they got into power, controlled the Senate and had the individual States green light it.
I think Australia should be investing heavily in nuclear. The cost doesn’t make sense for the private sector to bear, but the govt can afford it as long as it doesn’t take away from renewable investment like the libs are proposing here. Future debt is easier to solve than carbon emissions.
We need large scale base load power generation to fill in the gap that electrification of everything will bring. Electrical demand will increase as we replace fossil fuel for heating, cars and transport, etc…
Link the east and west coast grids to let afternoon solar on the west coast flatten the evening east coast peaks, pick a big old chunk of desert in South Australia for wind and solar, throw in a few gigabatteries and tart up some hydro systems, done.
Probably only be $10-15 billion or so.
Thing is, Renewables are already cheap. By the time Nuclear is built, batteries and solar will be hugely cheaper than the price they are now.
The same thing that happened to NBN will happen to nuclear (basic Game theory). With NBN, competitors undercut the NBN with 5G, because FTTC and FTTN was so bad.
In this case, if they start building, everyone knows that power costs will be expensive, so renewable energy companies will target the prices, and encourage people to install solar and batteries anyway… If batteries are 1/5 of the price they are now, everyone will simply install 5x more batteries, more panels (because they’ll also be more efficient and cheaper than they are now, and work during worse conditions) and remove themselves from the grid. From a game theory point of view, Solar/batteries have a 10-15 year head start and are already cheaper.
I bought my 6.6kw panels maybe 3 years ago, and 10kw is apparently already cheaper. If I wait 5 years, 15-20kw will probably be cheap (and I have more than enough roof space, so the only thing limiting me would be weather the power company allows it)
I have no idea why anyone would want a centralised grid. Last major power outage here in Victoria during storms was triggered because Loy Yang coal fell offline, and non-solid state power generation takes ages to come back online (it needs to sync up to the grid). Solar and batteries sync up immediately, so
By the time these are built, you’ll have hugely cheap and efficient batteries and solar panels… Even solar windows and roof tiles
Furthermore, nuclear is expensive anyway, so everyone will still get solar and undercut it
Finally, why would anyone want a centralised power grid which is operated and run by a single company.
It’s a stupid idea.
If you don’t know, vote no!
Even when in power and offering cash incentives, the LNP couldn’t convince the power industry to extend coal power plant lifetimes or build new generators. Renewables have already won the free market, they will likely never be beaten in our lifetime. Good fucking luck getting any company that wants to actually make money to invest in nuclear.
The only reasonable argument left for nuclear is the baseline and storage argument, but again the writing is on the wall, industry can see the trajectory that batteries and storage tech is on and know that by the time they spend 2 decades investing in current gen nuclear, it will probably be beaten by storage in the free market anyway.
This policy is not genuine. The intention is to delay or destroy fossil fuel alternatives to protect investments in that sector. If it creates political division and creates an impression of leadership then it is icing on the cake. I would expect the coalition to become increasingly divided if this was ever realistically pursued. Coalition voters do not want to foot the bill for this idiocy. The market has already voted. Renewables won on time to market and ROI.
For context I am not opposed to nuclear power generation at all. There has been a lot of misinformation about safety and waste for generations that has poisoned debate and I would like to see a more rational debate. I think it irresponsible for countries like Germany to turn away from nuclear and create huge energy security issues as well as increased emissions.
Carbon emissions are a global problem and each country has a responsibility to address it as effectively as they can. We can support nuclear power by supplying uranium and it doesn’t matter for carbon reduction if the reactors are in Australia or overseas.
Our construction costs are very high and we don’t have local expertise. Our research reactor was designed by Argentina. As much as some of us would like to see nuclear power come to Australia it is fantasy economics.
I don’t know how much you know about Germany, but energy security is not a huge problem over there. Over 60% of generated electricity is now coming from renewables. Nuclear peaked as early as 1995 (30%) and has been declining ever since. At the same time, Germany is steadily reducing its dependency on Russian fossil fuels.
It makes no economic sense. Fucking idiot.
There is nothing to discuss, its not a real plan, its a fever dream. It wont happen.
Worse than that, it’s an intentional miss direction so that their billionaire benefactors can continue to squeeze the fossil fuel sponge well into the future. They want to get every last almost free drop out of our resources.
It’s ridiculous. We are absolutely in the drivers seat to be a world leader in renewable energy and out of touch politicians want us to invest hundreds of billions of dollars in nuclear power stations like it’s the 1950s and we don’t have any other alternative.
Like every other government project there will a cost blowout, and it will overrun so by 2040 we’ll have a handful of half built nuclear reactors and the budget will be a couple hundred billion in the red.
We don’t have the expertise to build or run nuclear power stations, so we would have to import all of that knowledge and expertise until we can skill up. More money.
We have the landmass and the coastline to support solar, wind and wave generation. It will be far less complex, cheaper to build/maintain, we’ll be able to diversify energy sources and there is no toxic byproduct.
The Liberals fucked the NBN, fingers crossed they don’t fuck our energy future as well.
I think we should have done this 20 years ago. Not kicked the can down the road.
Sure, but if we’d started 20 years ago it would have taken 20 years to build!
I mean, it’s one way to solve the Gippsland problem: abandoned town tours after the private sector RBMK’s the fuck outta Traralgon. Because let’s be super clear here: private industry has a dog shit safety record, and IF the thing gets build (it won’t) they’ll build the cheapest fucking reactor they can. If the government try to regulate (they won’t) it’ll be too cost inefficient to work (it already is) so we’d gonna end up with an industry that’d make a Soviet engineer worried!
Nuclear is fucking awsome and had the ability to fix our energy issues. There is strong evidance that the oil corporations are actually responsible for manufacturing nuclear fear narrative because it poses an actually economically viable alternative.
Thats not to mention the CSIRO who access tally forgot to include the most economically viable nuclear energy method of there analysis of “all” energy production methods. So much for independence.
Nuclear is literally the most expensive way to generate energy and no amount of liquid salt or SMR hallucinations can come even close to fixing that problem.
You don’t need to create fear of nuclear, it’s a bad choice all by itself.
I might be reading to much in to the previous commenters use of the word had. But you’re at arguments make a lot more sense today than 30 years ago.
It certainly was fear that stopped Australia from building a nuclear industry in the 90s. It made a lot of sense then. Today, it’s hard to see it anything more as a diversionary tactic.
Liquid salt is good for small heigh density systems mainly submarines. SMR is bullshit and far more expensive that other reactors (mainly due to the lack of expertise or good designs available). SMR is the silicon valley tech bro bs reactor. We gotta stop fuckin around and go to Japan or France and be like hey here’s a couple billion we like that one put it here.
In 3 years, solar panel cost has mostly dropped in half (you can buy a 10kw system for the same as 6.6 a few years ago). Battery cost dropped 25% over the past year.
Nuclear can’t dispatch any power (incrementally or otherwise), until its fully built. Nuclear is also expensive power, and it can’t be dispatched as quickly or cheaply as solar/batteries (so the nuclear power station will remain offline). Don’t forget that generators need to sync to the grid fully, and can even lose sync and take hours to come back online (which happened to Loy Yang recently, and there were huge blackouts in victoria). When more despatchable power is needed, batteries will win EVERY time (because its cheap and instant).
Its reasonable to think that even 40kwh batteries will be cheaper and safer than even 10kwh batteries too and much higher efficiency solar panels (and possibly solar windows), so people will get off the grid and can have days of solar eclipse too.
Battery capacity is limited by cost still… It won’t be in the future (don’t forget, residential is about $ per kwh, NOT density)
One thing that is also misunderstood, is that panels still also produce power when its cloudy too… Solar panel efficiency in 10 years will increase rapidly, and this will only improve…
Nuclear is like an average olympic athlete who isn’t allowed to start a race for 10 years. Sure it looks competitive now, but there are so many other athletes around, that by the time Nuclear gets to the starting line, the other athletes will be finishing.
It’s really just kicking the can down the street. My expectation is if they got into power, they would say the figures are more than they realised, say they have to fix Labor’s economic mess and they’ll come back to it when the economy is in the black. Like others, I would have seen it as viable 20 years ago, but it is just so expensive, they’ve cancelled builds overseas because of cost blowouts and Europe is turning off reactors because of all the renewable energy in their grid. The claim it would be cheaper annoys me the most, as it is an outright lie. All the liberals do is shovel shit and coal
Existing nuclear tech is dramatically more expensive than every competing low carbon power generation and will never have any place in Australia.
Future nuclear tech (be it fission or fusion) may be a different story, but our power plants are at end of life so we need new power gen now, the world is dying so we need carbon neutral now.
We can’t sideline this for 20 years to wait and see what happens, the strategy should be the roll out renewables to the point where the grid doesn’t need any major changes. When we hit the point where the grid does need big investment, reassess available alternatives. If nothing has changed, roll out the grid changes and more renewables or if fusion drilling geotehermal or nuclear or whatever has come viable work it out then.
Have they released who is going to pay for these power plants? Because if they put it on my monthly bill, I’m going off grid and I bet half the rest of the country will too.
fwiw Sabine has a history of commenting outside of her area of expertise and having some very bad takes.
She’s an astrophysicist. Listen to her closely when she’s talking about what’s going on in space. But her comments on other subjects such as climate, trans rights, and, yes, nuclear energy, should be taken as those of a random interested layperson. Maybe they’re right from time to time, but they don’t deserve any special consideration.
In that video, for example, she herself admits to ignoring the planning stage, and she’s only talking about countries that already have large nuclear industries. Australia has no nuclear expertise to begin with, so it’s guaranteed to take a lot longer for us than it does in places like Germany and America. And even then she ends up admitting it’s at least twice as expensive as alternative options. She tries to downplay this by making a joke about astrophysics and orders of magnitude, but here on Earth that’s a big difference, and that’s in the best case.
I think it’s a well balanced and well researched video. I don’t think she concludes that nuclear is a clear winner. And in our case it may not make sense. But both sides are guilty of cherry picking facts to fit their narrative.
The only reason I can think of to go nuclear is if renewables can’t meet our power needs. I think it’s a hard problem for the grid to manage distributed power generation in such varying amounts. Sometimes the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow enough. Can batteries fill the gaps? I hope so. But I wouldn’t be opposed to a small bet on nuclear at the same time.
Whats the link?
galoisghost@aussie.zone 5 months ago
The worst thing about this ‘plan’ is the media treating it like it’s an actual real thing that will actually happen if the LNP get in power.
Sarsaparilla@aussie.zone 5 months ago
Yes. I was saying to my daughter this morning that they platform these crazy people and enable them. But then it is also true that they are in our govt so it moreover says a lot about a public that voted them into those positions and elevated their voice.
galoisghost@aussie.zone 5 months ago
It’s a chicken and egg situation. However if the media were more concerned with journalism than audience metrics. I think the bullshit might have less standing in the eyes of the public.
Gbagginsthe3rd@aussie.zone 4 months ago
You always know when the coalition is in opposition- that’s when you hear about their nuclear plans. In power, it’s crickets.
It’s all noise, distracting us from other more important things which need our attention now