I think a lot of American planners expect the next war to be against China more than Russia, most likely as part of efforts to reclaim Taiwan militarily. Whether that actually happens or not, China seems to be trying to build a military that can win against the U.S., either by matching strengths or some more asymmetric means. I think I saw a story recently that China was constructing mockups of American navy ships in a desert that seem to be for war gaming, as an example.
bhmnscmm@lemmy.world 4 months ago
I understand that the US is likely vulnerable to cyber attack, but is a widespread attack by China likely?
I mean, let’s say China does disable infrastructure, banking, etc in a coordinated and widespread attack. But then what? An attack on that scale is an act of war, and I doubt China would follow up with military action.
Perhaps this is more of a preventive MAD type strategy? Essentially a warning to the US to not mess with China, or else these are the consequences.
jqubed@lemmy.world 4 months ago
shalafi@lemmy.world 4 months ago
Had a long talk with a very intelligent, young, Navy SIGINT guy last New Years. He’s been out there, intercepting and working on signal intelligence. Basically said, “China is the enemy, and they’re far more able and serious than you think. Can’t say much more, take it or leave it.”
SocialMediaRefugee@lemmy.world 4 months ago
China is still mostly poor and rural. For all of their economic expansion things are still basic there for most people.
Buddahriffic@lemmy.world 4 months ago
If 75% of China’s population is poor and rural, that other 25% is still higher than USA’s population, which also includes poor and rural people.
bobs_monkey@lemm.ee 4 months ago
That’s debatable, but that doesn’t have much bearing on China’s military capabilities. Their urban canters are very much developed. You could also say that much of the US is rural and poor, while our military has been involving themselves all over the world for a long time.
WanderingVentra@lemm.ee 4 months ago
Idk if Taiwan would be worth the war, at least not more than supplying Ukraine who’s fighting Russia, which has done way more damage to our country recently. We need to catch up on our local chip manufacturing capabilities fast first, though.
SocialMediaRefugee@lemmy.world 4 months ago
I can’t blame China for wanting Taiwan back. Imagine if we had a civil war and a foreign military invaded and occupied Alaska during a war just before it. Then at the end of the war one side fled to Alaska and declared it independant but we couldn’t retake it because we were so debilitated from the civil war and the war before it. Now a foreign government steps in and says you can’t retake your territory because they said so. I’d be pissed too.
antonim@lemmy.dbzer0.com 4 months ago
But what do the residents of Alaska have to say? Are they doing fine? Would they be doing better if they were back under US?
WanderingVentra@lemm.ee 4 months ago
While I 100% understand them wanting it back with that context, it’s also been long enough that it feels like there’s no point. It’s just, idk, national pride at this point? It’s not like they have a ton of oil like Alaska does, just the chips and they could probably catch up on that in time or just get them through trade.
But maybe we need a longer amount of time. People’s grandparents can still probably remember when they were united. And I know they can get pretty nationalistic over there, too.
jaybone@lemmy.world 4 months ago
Right after they had that Asia pacific summit in SF, suddenly there was very little news about threats to Taiwan, and there was a lot of news about new chip manufacturing setting up in like Arizona and Utah or something. Which makes me think we are going to let China take Taiwan.
SocialMediaRefugee@lemmy.world 4 months ago
The US wants a fight with China to justify our perpetual military buildup and foreign reach.
Hegar@kbin.social 4 months ago
No, it's not likely at all unless we get into an open conflict. Then cyber warfare will be just one arena of conflict. But I think most estimates are that that would be disastrous for us, china and the world so it's unlikely for now.
It's way more likely that the fbi want more money or are repeating some talking point to push an agenda or as a political favor.
sheogorath@lemmy.world 4 months ago
That being said, if America ever plunges into a civil war it would be the best time for them to cripple the US infrastructure and do anything they want to Taiwan and SEA while having the US consumed in an infighting.
Deceptichum@kbin.social 4 months ago
Isnt it about being prepared for if they are in a state of war?
bhmnscmm@lemmy.world 4 months ago
That’s what it seems like to me. I don’t see China executing a cyber attack without being willing and able to follow up with military action. Preparation, as you said.
Tensions don’t seem high enough currently for that to be the case, but perhaps someday they will be. At that point we’d be facing an all out war.
Deceptichum@kbin.social 4 months ago
Tensions can flair up any moment over anything, so while it might seem unlikely today all it takes is one Serbian guy with a gun to start a world war.
Whereas training hackers can take years, so start early.
MajorHavoc@programming.dev 4 months ago
I don’t see China executing a cyber attack without being willing and able to follow up with military action. Preparation, as you said.
That ship sailed years ago. No one is even keeping up a polite “might be someone else” fiction anymore.
bhmnscmm@lemmy.world 4 months ago
I guess my comment was a bit vague. China is certainly currently interfering with our systems on a smaller scale. I was referring to a large scale, widespread cyber attack as described in the article.
It’s highly likely China is capable of of that sort of attack. But I don’t see how we’re more at risk of that happening now than any other military action.
Another commenter described it well as another theater of a potential war, not necessarily that a war is imminent at this point
pop@lemmy.ml 4 months ago
Do you know anything about cyber security or are just passionate because you get to talk about war. If China were to coordinate an widespread attack, do you think it is as simple as the attack will come straight from the computer in the CCP headquarters and you go in to save the day?
Do you have any idea of how many outdated, unsecured, vulnerable devices (most of them made in China) could be used around the world just to have a plausible deniability. Ever heard of phishing? It could have come from your friend’s email and you could be the one that’s spreading the worm. And it would take months to trace it back to China. These are not script kiddies you see on the movies. War pigs are going to be in for a treat.
bhmnscmm@lemmy.world 4 months ago
Did you reply to the wrong comment? I don’t think my comment is really related the points you’ve brought up.
HATEFISH@midwest.social 4 months ago
I think the point they were trying to make was that China would have plausible deniablity based on where the attacks could be initially traced to.¯\_(ツ)_/¯
BlackSkinnedJew@lemmynsfw.com 4 months ago
Why would they want to push a massive cyber warfare if they can hack and collect as much information as they want to push communism all over the world(that’s the purpose of intelligence work), I mean it’s not what about Huawei and TikTok are hated in the US?
All it’s just about pushing a certain agenda.
eighthourlunch@kbin.social 4 months ago
Given trade, it doesn't seem to be in their best interest to cripple the US.
GraniteM@lemmy.world 4 months ago
—Norman Angell, author of The Great Illusion