Comment on Nvidia plans heavy cuts to GPU supply in early 2026
Voroxpete@sh.itjust.works 1 day ago
Two ways to read this and I think both are somewhat true.
Option one; They’re OPEC now. They set the supply, and you bring the demand because you have no other choice. This lets them push prices up, which pushes margins up, and that hopefully props up their insanely inflated share price a little longer.
Option two; They’re well aware that demand is going to fall off a cliff soon. We’re already at “Nvidia is paying people to buy their GPUs” and have been for a while. The AI industry can’t afford to keep this train running, and even financial chicanery and circular dealing will only get them so far. Companies are building out data centres with zero plan for how to make any profit from them. When the GPUs they have age out, they’re not gonna buy more, they’re gonna go bankrupt (allowing the banks to sieze the mountain of now worthless three year old burned out GPUs that they used as collateral). And there’s not enough venture capital left for new data centre builds. The genAI financial engine is reaching its peak, and Nvidia doesn’t want to be stuck with a mountain of production that no one wants to buy.
Option two is not correct, option one is correct. This announcement is specifically for consumer gaming GPU’s only, it does not affect institutional datacenter customers.
This is Nvidia saying “thanks small fry, you were useful, but we’re leaving you behind now. Fight for the scraps.” Complete cartel behavior.
Then just buy AMD.
AMD is a puppydog that follows Nvidia around on the open market with 10% or less market share. If Nvidia constricts supply and causes a massive price jump and shortages, AMD will just follow the pricing curve and we will still get no GPU’s.
AMD is also 100% reliant on TSMC and VRAM suppliers, the same exact supply pressures causing Nvidia to turn off the consumer tap will come for AMD too.
If this is about supply pressures, it’s not Nvidia acting as a cartel, is it?
AMD has, as far as I understand, been outcompeting Nvidia on value for a good while. If this is Nvidia just being anti-consumer, I’d expect that to continue
When their only competition just hiked prices, why would they keep theirs low? That’s free money.
They’ll still undercut, just as they are doing.
I just don’t think moaning about the companies makes any sense. If you imagine the most utopian scenario you think of, with communal ownership of all production, how do you think the commune is going to allocate GPUs? It’s going to stick a load in hyped AI products and gamers will be last in line, just like now.
They’ll have to come crawling back when the business customers stop buying. AI winter is coming.
I think it is just plain greed. The AI bubble has made NVIDIA mountains of money but they still want more. So they focus production on higher tier consumer GPU’S and their Pro series and give a middle finger to budget conscience consumers.
My theory is its easier to produce a product for a small number of big investors in AI than millions of consumers looking to build hobby computers. Plus the AI companies are flush with cash, MUCH more than the average consumer. So they are getting the cash now and worrying about the fallout later, just like everyone else.
That’s every sector right now. They’re all aiming for the top 10% who earn as much as the bottom 90% put together. For computer hardware, that number is probably a lot worse.
And sadly none of this hardware will be viable for consumers to use, even bought used.
Pretty astute. Maybe I can buy a half cooked gpu on firesale in a few years for a budget build… one can dream!
Unfortunately the ones used in AI data centers aren’t useful for gaming. So yeah, probably could buy one for ⅓ the price of new, but couldn’t use it for gaming and likely still wouldn’t be able to afford it because of:
NVIDIA H200 (Blackwell architecture) – The latest flagship (late 2023), with upgraded ~141 GB HBM3e and other Hopper improvements. It provides ~50% performance uplift over H100 in many tasks on the same power envelope. Pricing is said to be only modestly above H100. For instance, a 4-GPU H200 SXM board is listed at about $170K (versus $110K for 4×H100) ([2]) ([20]). A single H200 (NVL version) is quoted at around $31,000–32,000 ([21]). NVIDIA’s data center system NVDIMMs for H200 (DGX B200) reflect these prices, though bulk deals may apply.
Data centre GPUs tend not to have video outputs, and have power (and active cooling!) requirements in the “several kW” range. You might be able to snag one for work, if you work at a university or at somewhere that does a lot of 3D rendering - I’m thinking someone like Pixar. They are not the most convenient or useful things for a home build.
When the bubble bursts, they will mostly be used for creating a small mountain of e-waste, since the infrastructure to even switch them on costs more than the value they could ever bring.
Bummer. Ill add it to my pile of shattered 2025 dreams
The optimist in me has hope that this does fuel an explosion cheap hardware for businesses to build cheap+useful+private AI stuff on.
devolution@lemmy.world 1 day ago
Let’s not forget AAA games are the games that use gpus the hardest gaming wise and they are bombing at record levels because they are deritive garbage and AA games are doing more with less.
Add that to the AI bubble bullshit and it’s just a perfect storm.
JensSpahnpasta@feddit.org 1 day ago
I really would like to know if AAA games are bombing because they are overpriced microtransaction hell or if they are bombing because many people haven’t been able to buy their new gaming PC because of those GPU prices in the last 5 years and now we do not have the install base to run them
devolution@lemmy.world 1 day ago
The micro transactions and shittiness mainly.
YiddishMcSquidish@lemmy.today 1 day ago
This! My steam deck with an igpu has been running all the new games fine. Granted not like 120+fps fine, but my desktop has a two generation old card and god only knows about the CPU and it’s hitting 120 easy on the games I play. Which of the games I play, cyberpunk is the most resource intensive.
warm@kbin.earth 1 day ago
That people keep buying into... so the cycle continues.
SharkAttak@kbin.melroy.org 1 day ago
For a while now games are sold without a lot of optimization, expecting the customers to just buy more powerful hardware.
Burninator05@lemmy.world 19 hours ago
My bet is microtransactions and a lot of them not being great lol games. You don’t need a 5090 to play a AAA game unless you’re maxing out the visuals.
warm@kbin.earth 1 day ago
Any GPU from the last few generations should be able to run any game without any problems. A lot of games are just made like complete ass unfortunately, you know because of profits ultimately.
lemmyout@lemmy.zip 1 day ago
Nah gaming doesn’t even make a dent in their revenue. Gaming demand means nothing to their supply, demand and pricing.