Wall Street’s AI Bubble Is Worse Than the 1999 Dot-com Bubble, Warns a Top Economist

Submitted ⁨⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago⁩ by ⁨BrikoX@lemmy.zip⁩ to ⁨technology@lemmy.zip⁩

https://gizmodo.com/wall-streets-ai-bubble-is-worse-than-the-1999-dot-com-bubble-warns-a-top-economist-2000630487

A chief economist at investment giant Apollo says the top ten AI stocks are more detached from reality than the tech titans of the 1990s were. His chart is a stark warning that history is about to repeat itself.

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obbeel@lemmy.eco.br ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
The progress of OpenAI since february has been pathetic. The other major AI LLMs have surpassed it a lot. I want to see how they will justify the investment.

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misteloct@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
I don’t buy it. The top 10 companies are mooning not because of AI, but because they’re in bed with a powerful wannabe dictator. I don’t mean to sound grim, but if I were a betting man I’d put my money on the unfairly advantaged companies too. Luckily I index invest and don’t listen to this noise.

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- ayyy@sh.itjust.works ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  It’s backfiring badly as institutions get their data the hell away from American control. It will take a few years but the damage has already been done and can’t be reversed.
  
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chgxvjh@hexbear.net ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
I wonder what will happen when the bubble bursts. I think there is a lot of people hoping this will mean that the fever dream ends and “AI” goes away. But how likely is that?

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- rumba@lemmy.zip ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  I’m not sure that this line’s up the same way that the tech bubble did back in the day. Right now, they’re firing people by the metric ass tons because AI can make existing people more agile at their jobs.
  
  The collapse of AI might be more like the collapse of the horseless carriage. Do people come back and fill in for all the chatbots now?
  
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- InvalidName2@lemmy.zip ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  People hoping that are likely ignorant of what AI actually is. It’s incredibly unlikely that AI “ends”, at least not if/until things get really bad on a societal level to the point where our species loses its ability to produce and use technology altogether.
  
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Iampossiblyatwork@lemmy.world ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
Article says there might not be a trigger… There’s always a trigger.

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some_guy@lemmy.sdf.org ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
While I’m sad that people will be hurt, I’ll dance when this shit collapses

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- AnarchoDakosaurus@toast.ooo ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  Think of all the souls who will be trapped in the metaverse once the server shuts down. Dozens of people trapped in Zuckerberg’s purgatory. Real nightmare shit.
  
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jessicablaze@lemmynsfw.com ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
But when I asked AI it said that it was a great investment…Nevermind, I see the issue now.

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- Perspectivist@feddit.uk ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  I’m unable to replicate your results. I get a long and nuanced aswer. Mind sharing the answer you got?
  
  When I asked the same thing the conclusion was:
  
  So is AI a good investment? The sector has long-term potential, especially in areas like chip manufacturing, enterprise automation, and maybe foundational model licensing. But it’s also deeply speculative right now, with prices reflecting hype as much as earnings.
  
  If you’re thinking long-term and can stomach volatility, AI is worth including. If you’re chasing short-term returns because you think “AI is the future,” you might be buying someone else’s exit.
  
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  - jessicablaze@lemmynsfw.com ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    I was just trying to be funny. I didn’t literally ask AI. I just assumed the model would be trained to encourage investment.
    
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  - jaybone@lemmy.zip ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    That answer itself is pretty stupid.
    
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bobs_monkey@lemmy.zip ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
I’m fairly certain this is why the current administration is so vehement about not letting anyone regulate AI. We know it’s bubbling, they know it’s bubbling. It’s only a matter of time before the market finds irrefutable proof that AI has been oversold and investors bail.

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- tacosanonymous@mander.xyz ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  It’s insane. Either they are stupid or they think this awful product will be everywhere anyway. Also, what market will even exist when this idiocy destroys all of our institutions?
  
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  - Croquette@sh.itjust.works ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    Every AI company CEO/C-suite is gambling that they won’t be left holding the bag.
    
    Either AI fails and CEO/C-Suite made their money already, or AI succeeds and they carved an early lead in the market and gamble even more.
    
    Workers are only there to build the biggest stack of chips possible before it gets cashed out.
    
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- remotelove@lemmy.ca ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
  Well, yeah. If I was a betting man, and I sometimes am, I would speculate that Democrats are going to hold the presidency next and it’ll be just in time for the stock market to crash.
  
  All it will take is oneinvestigation, one major implosion (hopefully NVIDIA, OpenAI, or both) or something else for the underpinning to come loose.
  
  Since Republicans are unlikely to launch any kind of criminal probe (or other kind of interfering action), they can most likely keep the bubble propped up for quite a while.
  
  TBH, what I am more scared of is if the bubble doesn’t pop soon. With OpenAI dumping money into consulting services and investors openly declaring that the end goal is to achieve vendor lock-in, it sets a ton of companies up for failure if they were dumb enough to make all of their core services dependent on OpenAI.
  
  Either companies keep paying OpenAI to keep their core offerings alive or they can’t, and go bankrupt if they can’t convert their infrastructure and services.
  
  The sooner that all of these shit OpenAI sub-service vendors die, the better. Venture capital will start drying up and OpenAI will lose their “path to profitability”. (It’s almost sounding like how meme coins support BTC… I digress.)
  
  Hell, I haven’t even touched on inflated company valuations and how AI LLM market growth is being fabricated, in part, by shoving AI integrations into every product imaginable.
  
  I’ll shut up now, but my point is that I am just applying the same shit I saw back in 2008 where the magic product was sub-prime mortgages coupled with hyper-risky market bets. Obviously, there are differences, but the core failure modes at the same.
  
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  - timbuck2themoon@sh.itjust.works ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    I honestly don’t think ai can hold out that long. It’s 2025 and the mood is already souring.
    
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  - bobs_monkey@lemmy.zip ⁨8⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago
    If I had to guess, the entire reason they’re shoving AI integration into absolutely everything is to try to make it irreplaceably viable, if only to keep it relevant. The bubble pops when VC funding decides that maybe AI isn’t the holy grail they thought it was and the market on it tanks (bringing every associated stock down with it). Personally, I’m wondering if this bubble is what brings the house of cards down with it, because the amount of money that is all in on AI is absolutely insane, and for no good reason.
    
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