Submitted 4 days ago by BrikoX@lemmy.zip to globalnews@lemmy.zip
https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2025/jun/16/lowy-poll-2025-china-us-trump-trust
Lowy Institute report shows trust in the US has tumbled to lowest level since thinktank began polling
Archived version: archive.is/…/lowy-poll-2025-china-us-trump-trust
Disclaimer: The article linked is from a single source with a single perspective. Make sure to cross-check information against multiple sources to get a comprehensive view on the situation.
There was a moment around the year 2000 when this might have been the case but China’s demographics and unwillingness to permit meaningful immigration will see a decline of 20-25% of their working age population over the next 30 years due to a plummeting fertility rate. This phenomenon isn’t unique to China, but China is one of the hardest hit for many reasons. A decline of hundreds of millions of workers is going to destroy their economy - especially with such a large elderly population set to retire. There is no chance they fully transition to a services based economy by then. Not even close. They still have hundreds of millions of citizens living subsistence farming lifestyles.
Now compound this with all of the structural issues like command and control policies which destroy whole industries because the dictator in charge has a mood swing, a property bubble from which they will never recover, an economy built on unnecessary public spending, and an educational system which continues to emphasise blind obedience over individualism, and I think it very difficult to believe China becomes the most “powerful” country by 2035.
China has proven itself able to change drastically and quickly. High speed rail and renewable energy. Both massive undertakings tackling massive problems for China and both done far faster and on a much larger scale than anywhere else. If there’s one country I actually trust to be proactive about securing its future, it’s China. I’ll take the wait and see approach to the supposed imminent demographic collapse
I agree that authoritarian governments have more latitude than democracies. The CCP displaced up to two million people when it built the The Three Gorges Dam. There was no recourse. No ability to object. People who had lived on the land for generations were simply told to leave. Some were lucky to be given meagre government apartments to live in elsewhere, but that was it. It’s much easier to build large infrastructure projects when you don’t have to worry about pesky things like property laws, health and safety, and human rights.
If your argument is that authoritarianism will win over democracy in the long term, it’s an interesting debate. Most of human history was some form of authoritarianism. Some form of might makes right. There have been small democratic experiements in history (see Greece), but modern democracy is a relatively new experiment. I hope it succeeds, because I like it a lot more than the alternatives.
The question is, will they decline more than their competitors? Right now i think the US will decline a lot more a lot faster. And Russia will likely not even be around.
This is an excellent question. I think the major question mark hanging over this projection is the role that automation will play in the future. Both in terms of physical production, and in terms of white collar or office work. One could argue that economies which are best positioned to take advantage of automation might feel the impact of a declining workforce less, but then those same societies run the risk of high unemployment and low domestic economic demand for products and services. The balance is crucial and economies are generally slow to pivot.
lmfao
Amazing to see people in 2025 who still believe in this nonsense.
structural issues like command and control policies
Planned economics is precisely the reason why China has grown faster than India and become so dominant. Because they can control their economy for long-term human needs instead of putting everything into finance like the west.
the dictator
Anyone who still thinks Xi is a dictator despite the very strong collective and decentralised governance of China doesn’t know enough about the country to pass an elementary school civics test.
The whole reason the property market bubble happened was because the Chinese government is way too decentralised. Local governments bet all in on property values as a way to boost tax revenue (land taxes are their main source of income). The central government should have stepped in way sooner, but that would have required centralising the Chinese tax base significantly, a tough thing to do because it would also require centralising public services. Not only would that require buy in from the vast number of local representatives and the national people’s congress, but it would have also interfered with the poverty alleviation campaign.
an economy built on unnecessary public spending
Pure neoliberal cope. I hope you are enjoying your deindustrialised austerity economy.
an educational system which continues to emphasise blind obedience over individualism
This is hilarious coming from westerners who have naught an original thought, only memes.
Aren’t they already?
Soft power yes, military power not yet I’d say
majority of australians think that afternoon will follow morning
China already dominates the global ev market.
It’s already called an electrostate and they’ll supplant the old petrostates.
Sure, China will rise and then it will fall under its own weight just like every empire before it.
That’s true, but the time between rise and fall takes a while. From the looks of things, the US empire is in the process of falling, which would clear the way for China to take over the top spot. This may change depending on how things go, but if China can grab that spot then it’ll take a while for their turn to fall.
Nobody currently alive will live to see it
Doubt it takes that long
A lot of Americans still think of China as the place to make cheap goods, but their manufacturing sector has benefited from decades of stolen expertise.
I listened to a podcast (Dithering; it’s subscription based) talking about a book about Apple’s manufacturing operations in China. The distinction was that other companies guarded because their techniques would be stolen, whereas Apple focused on “we’re gonna teach you to do this,” which then proliferated to other companies. We wouldn’t have semi-affordable (depending on your situation) iPhones otherwise. They be impossible to build at scale. Really eye opening.
The ep was the second one last week, if you wanna listen.
I saw that book pass by on the Daily Show: Patrick McGee - Apple In China: The Capture of the World’s Greatest Company
Tinidril@midwest.social 4 days ago
What makes the US the most powerful country in the world? It’s our cultural exports, our educational institutions, and our technology. We spent decades handing all our technology over to China, and undermining education. Now Trump has poisoned the American brand for at least a generation.
China is way ahead on building a science and technology culture, and promoting education. The dividends from those investments are already paying off, and they are going to start compounding.
A lot of Americans still think of China as the place to make cheap goods, but their manufacturing sector has benefited from decades of stolen expertise. It turns out there are benefits from having engineers and factory workers in the same location. Faster feedback means faster development. Now the US is falling behind.
BrikoX@lemmy.zip 4 days ago
Completely agree. Also it’s not really “stolen expertise” as wetern companies and capitalist countries given it away willingly in exchange for cheap manufacturing. They just never expected China to take advantage of it to compete on a global market.
manxu@piefed.social 4 days ago
I don't think they really cared if China took advantage of it. America's CEOs are only invested in the next few quarters, at best. Something that might take a decade or two is entirely not relevant to their planning and actions.
Nakoichi@hexbear.net 4 days ago
I mostly agree however you are showing some serious racism when you say they “stole” anything. Do typu really believe the people that invented gun powder cannot innovate?
possiblylinux127@lemmy.zip 4 days ago
China doesn’t respect intellectual property
ogmios@sh.itjust.works 4 days ago
Bitch please. Trump is far from the only reason people hate the USA. Especially after they used the Internet as a trojan horse to launch mass surveillance upon the entire globe.
some_guy@lemmy.sdf.org 4 days ago
I listened to a podcast (Dithering; it’s subscription based) talking about a book about Apple’s manufacturing operations in China. The distinction was that other companies guarded because their techniques would be stolen, whereas Apple focused on “we’re gonna teach you to do this,” which then proliferated to other companies. We wouldn’t have semi-affordable (depending on your situation) iPhones otherwise. They be impossible to build at scale. Really eye opening.
The ep was the second one last week, if you wanna listen.
hark@lemmy.world 4 days ago
Yes we would, they’d just have to lower their ridiculously high profit margins: cnbc.com/…/apples-gross-margin-hits-record-as-ser…
Salvo@aussie.zone 1 day ago
China has already successfully destroyed manufacturing in most Pacific “first world” countries by undercutting us.
The fact that US, Australian, Japanese, Korean and New Zealand manufacturers were so ready to outsource to China in the first place, just to save a few cents in the dollar is how they got us.
Tinidril@midwest.social 1 day ago
Sounds more like “we got us” to me. It’s our system and our philosophies that made those pennies so precious.
possiblylinux127@lemmy.zip 4 days ago
The biggest problem with China is that they are Authoritarian.
Amnesigenic@lemmy.ml 4 days ago
That is in fact their greatest strength and the primary reason why our usual strategies for undermining our political & economic rivals don’t work on them. Sitting back and allowing shit to fall apart because “freedom” is moronic, just look at what the US has turned into for a perfect example.
Tinidril@midwest.social 4 days ago
That is indeed a problem but, speaking strictly about competitiveness, it does have it’s advantages. For example, the US really needs more strategically important goods to be manufactured at home, but that is really hard to do if market conditions favor offshoring. China can just dictate the sourcing - even in the (so called) private sector.
WolfmanEightySix@piefed.social 4 days ago
What are you “cultural exports”?
Tinidril@midwest.social 4 days ago
Movies, fast food chains, clothing chains, etc. The American brand and lifestyle that goes with it. Not exactly the greatest cultural achievements of all time, but they brought in cash.
AccountMaker@piefed.social 4 days ago
I can't speak for the rest of the world, but in Serbia 90% of TV shows and movies are American, and generally people watch primarily American movies/series online and in cinemas. Most people listen to American music and use English words in daily conversation. Most are familiar with things like 9/11, Vietnam, 4th of July, Woodstock, hippies etc.
A lot of younger people are more familiar with American history, topics, movies and music than their own culture. I'm not saying it's good, but Americans have an undeniably strong cultural influence, at least in Europe.
Diplomjodler3@lemmy.world 4 days ago
What did you write this comment on?