Yeah me neither. I’ve heard claims that automation will take away jobs from drivers in the future, but not anyone actually saying “it’s undeniable that by 2025 most cars will be driving entirely by themselves”. And I remember when GPS was a spy-gadget daydream you imagined having when using maps. (Actual, physical maps. Not Google/Apple Maps.)
Comment on Tesla Robotaxis Are Crashing More Than 12 Times as Frequently as Human Drivers
PangurBan@lemmy.world 3 weeks agoI’ve never heard that. Like, anywhere. Lol
Dasus@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
BussyCat@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
I heard it in the same vane that I heard that we would have a moon base by 2020 a mars base by 2025 and nuclear fusion in just 10 more years
Dasus@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
To be fair, the progression estimate loading bar for fusion was stuck at “estimate… 30 years” for fucking ages.
And now there are actual reactors. Experimental, but still.
“With the completion of the conceptual design phase, the project will now shift to engineering design, accelerated engineering R&D, and will proceed with site selection, site preparation, regulatory approvals, and the procurement of long-lead items, with the aim of construction after 2028,” it said.
GamingChairModel@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Most importantly, the projections of fusion being 30 years away depended on assumptions about funding, when political considerations made it so that we basically never came anywhere close to those assumptions:
…wikimedia.org/…/File:U.S._historical_fusion_budg…
Fusion was never vaporware. We had developed working weapons relying on nuclear fusion in the 1950’s. Obviously using a full blown fission reaction to “ignite” the fusion reaction was never going to be practical, but the core physical principles were always known, with the need for the engineering and materials science to catch up with alternative methods of igniting and harvesting the energy from those fusion reactions.
But we never really devoted the resources to figuring it out. Only more recently has there been significant renewed interest in funding the research to make it possible, and as you note, many different projects are hitting different milestones on the frontier of that research.
BussyCat@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
I wrote a school report about iter back in middle school or high school when it was still in the design process and still occasionally check their job listings because I would love to work there and on fusion but we still don’t know if it will ever work like we hit the scientific breakeven with inertial confinement but the scaling on that is terrible and I don’t believe we hit even the scientific breakeven with magnetic confinement
Then we still need to harness the energy from that turn it into work, turn that into electricity and distribute it with enough excess to pay for the whole system which is still a lot of hurdles we need to climb
mojofrododojo@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
musk:
2016 “We should be able to do 90 percent of miles driven [autonomously] within three years.”
2015 “A Tesla car next year will probably be 90-percent capable of autopilot. Like, so 90 percent of your miles can be on auto. For sure highway travel.”
2018 “From a technology standpoint, Tesla will have a car that can do full autonomy in about three years, maybe a bit sooner.”
2018 “We’re going to end up with complete autonomy, and I think we will have complete autonomy in approximately two years.”
2019 “I consider autonomous driving to be a basically solved problem. … We’re less than two years away from complete autonomy. Regulators however will take at least another year; they’ll want to see billions of miles of data.”
you apparently haven’t paid attention to the grifter in chief
Kissaki@feddit.org 3 weeks ago
That’s only musk though. Hardly “was undeniable fact”.
mojofrododojo@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
the person I replied to.