Agreed. Probably where it should have stayed in the first place. Not that its not interesting, just that the scope of AI has widened beyond what it should have.
Comment on The Big Short Guy Just Bet $1 Billion That the AI Bubble Pops
halcyoncmdr@lemmy.world 3 days agoIt will definitely burst, and might take out some fairly large companies with it. Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst. One or two companies will end up with the IP all of them are “building” and it will fizzle into the background of daily use just like the previous assistants like Alexa, Cortana, etc. have.
Eyedust@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 days ago
neukenindekeuken@sh.itjust.works 3 days ago
Depends on when the bust happens. If its in the current admin? All those tech companies are getting bailed out.
Fermion@mander.xyz 3 days ago
I think that might actually send the US into a debt spiral that would require leaning into printing and inflation. Net interest for FY25 is $933 Billion putting servicing debt as the third largest federal expenditure. Any bailout will either be insignificantly small or will tank the dollar.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.
skulblaka@sh.itjust.works 3 days ago
but it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.
So we can pretty much bank on it definitely happening, got it.
LillyPip@lemmy.ca 2 days ago
It’s a good thing trump isn’t dumb enough to think US debt is easily solved by printing more money, right?
Wouldn’t that be crazy?
(I really hope this isn’t something he can actually do. It shouldn’t be possible, but neither should a lot of things he’s done.)
Venator@lemmy.nz 3 days ago
the real danger is it will cause another great depression when it pops…
makyo@lemmy.world 3 days ago
I am having trouble seeing how OpenAI survives without investment cash. What exactly is their moat? I know they are hoping to power the AI behind everyone else’s tech but that is more and more untenable as the others develop AI models of their own.
SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 days ago
Please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft.
Scubus@sh.itjust.works 3 days ago
Itll be nvidia and openai primarily, id have to imagine
Womble@piefed.world 3 days ago
It wont be Nvidia unless they play things incredibly badly, they're the only ones making actual profit by selling shovels in the goldrush.
Scubus@sh.itjust.works 3 days ago
Yeah, but dont they also have the largest promisory debt? Havent they loaned the most most money that they dont actually have?
jj4211@lemmy.world 3 days ago
Yeah, but can they handle the collapse of going back to the company before the AI boom? They’ve increased in market cap 5000%, attracted a lot of stakeholders that never would have bothered with nVidia if not for the LLM boom. If LLM pops, then will nVidia survive with their new set of stakeholders that didn’t sign up for a ‘mere graphics company’?
They’ve reshaped their entire product strategy to be LLM focused. Who knows what the demand is for their current products without the LLM bump. Discrete GPUs were becoming increasingly niche since ‘good enough’ integrated GPUs kind of were denting their market.
They could survive a pop, but they may not have the right backers to do so anymore…
Perspectivist@feddit.uk 3 days ago
Microsoft already had a proven business model and established products and services before the AI boom. If a company goes under it would almost certainly be one focused almost entirely on AI such as Palantir.
msage@programming.dev 3 days ago
Lol, Palantir isn’t going anywhere.
And the AI bust will hit primarily generative AI, and Palantir does things a bit differently.
baines@lemmy.cafe 3 days ago
if boeing fuckups can kill people palantir is not foing anywhere
jj4211@lemmy.world 3 days ago
Nah, they already converted all their business clients to recurring revenue and are, relatively, not very exposed to the LLM thing. Sure they will have overspent a bit on datacenters and nVidia gear, but they continue to basically have most of global business solidly giving them money continuously to keep Office and Azure.
In terms of longer term tech companies that could be under existential threat, I’d put Supermicro in there. They are a long term fixture in the market that was generally pretty modest and had a bit of a boost from the hyperscalers as ‘cloud’ took off, but frankly a lot of industry folks were not sure exactly how Supermicro was getting the business results they reported while doing the things they were doing. Then AI bubble pulled them up hard and was a double edged sword as the extra scrutiny seemingly revealed the answer was dubious accounting all along. The finding would have been enough to just destroy their company, except they were ‘in’ on AI enough to be buoyed above the catastrophe.
A longer stretch, but nVidia might have some struggles. The AI boom has driven their market cap about 5000%. They’ve largely redefined most of their company to be LLM centric, with other use cases left having to make the most of whatever they do for LLM. How will their stakeholders react to a huge drop from the most important company on earth to a respectable but modest vendor of stuff for graphics? How strong is the appetite for GPU when the visual results aren’t really that much more striking than they were 3 generations of hardware back?