Just a reminder that the term “AI” stands for a category of systems that contains a lot more than just LLMs.
Comment on The Big Short Guy Just Bet $1 Billion That the AI Bubble Pops
Eyedust@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 days ago
If I had to make a guess, I say it probably will. The convenience of AI is probably here to stay, but the craze of replacing everything with AI will go out the door.
AI will become exactly what it should have been in the first place: an assistant. Not your friend, not your doctor, not your therapist, not a replacement for artists/authors/programmers, and not inside every piece of tech post 2025. It has a place. That place is over-embellished right now, not to mention unsustainable.
Perspectivist@feddit.uk 3 days ago
webghost0101@sopuli.xyz 3 days ago
Sir, this is the stock market.
People order with their feelings, not facts.
Perspectivist@feddit.uk 3 days ago
I don’t how this relates to what I said.
webghost0101@sopuli.xyz 3 days ago
Once the ai bubble breaks for llms it will drag general machine learning down with it once panic sets in. People wil dump any stock that even faintly smells like ai.
Some actually valuable business may disappear, on the other hand those that survive and are undervalued may actually be a good investment opportunities.
This is not financial advice, to gamble your money is dumb.
Eyedust@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 days ago
True, true. In this context I mean the LLM craze. The GPU era of AI.
freebee@sh.itjust.works 3 days ago
Main reason it can flourish as assistant in the first place is that Google search engine became shit
Nollij@sopuli.xyz 3 days ago
It’s not that Google’s algorithms got bad, but the entire Internet turned to shit and they can’t compensate for it.
For anytime not time-sensitive, try adding “before:2023” to your search. I’m being the quality of your results will skyrocket.
Pulsar@lemmy.world 2 days ago
I’m paying for a search engine “kagi” just because Google search results have more advertising than time square. It kind of sucks since we got used to search for free but at least I can get relevant results rather than advertising when I search.
Truscape@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 days ago
Dotcom groundhog day for the tech sector.
RiverRabbits@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 days ago
“convenience”? You mean CEOs being able to lay off workers with some magical technology that does nothing? Yeah, that’s surely convenient for the 0.1% of people in the world that doesn’t affect. Love that “convenience” for them.
Did it cup your balls during the last BJ or something? Fucking hell, what is it with randos on the web scaping for AI at every instance…
SorryQuick@lemmy.ca 2 days ago
Are you trying to deny that AI is also convenient for regular people?
RiverRabbits@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 days ago
Uh, yes. AI cannot and does not have productive output as its goal, technologically speaking. Therefore, any “convenience” is imagined and projected upon algorithmically most likely text. It’s just a statistician strapped in front of the 1 Million Monkeys thought experiment.
It’s quintessentially useless, unless your ultimate goal is text resembling language en masse. But usually, Loren Ipsum is much more energy efficient.
SorryQuick@lemmy.ca 2 days ago
But if it saves time on some simple tasks, how can you say it’s not convenient?
Eyedust@lemmy.dbzer0.com 2 days ago
Friend saw ‘convenience’ and that was it. No more reading, only fists. I thought I was quite neutral. Yes, convenience. I have been known to use a local LLM based on recipes to give me ideas what I could make based on my pantry.
I have a lovely recipe for absolutely delicious chocolate-chip cookies that use pancake mix.
halcyoncmdr@lemmy.world 3 days ago
It will definitely burst, and might take out some fairly large companies with it. Potentially even one or two tech companies that have been around for decades depending on how large it gets before that burst. One or two companies will end up with the IP all of them are “building” and it will fizzle into the background of daily use just like the previous assistants like Alexa, Cortana, etc. have.
SnotFlickerman@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 days ago
Please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft, please be Microsoft.
Scubus@sh.itjust.works 3 days ago
Itll be nvidia and openai primarily, id have to imagine
Womble@piefed.world 3 days ago
It wont be Nvidia unless they play things incredibly badly, they're the only ones making actual profit by selling shovels in the goldrush.
Perspectivist@feddit.uk 3 days ago
Microsoft already had a proven business model and established products and services before the AI boom. If a company goes under it would almost certainly be one focused almost entirely on AI such as Palantir.
msage@programming.dev 3 days ago
Lol, Palantir isn’t going anywhere.
And the AI bust will hit primarily generative AI, and Palantir does things a bit differently.
jj4211@lemmy.world 3 days ago
Nah, they already converted all their business clients to recurring revenue and are, relatively, not very exposed to the LLM thing. Sure they will have overspent a bit on datacenters and nVidia gear, but they continue to basically have most of global business solidly giving them money continuously to keep Office and Azure.
In terms of longer term tech companies that could be under existential threat, I’d put Supermicro in there. They are a long term fixture in the market that was generally pretty modest and had a bit of a boost from the hyperscalers as ‘cloud’ took off, but frankly a lot of industry folks were not sure exactly how Supermicro was getting the business results they reported while doing the things they were doing. Then AI bubble pulled them up hard and was a double edged sword as the extra scrutiny seemingly revealed the answer was dubious accounting all along. The finding would have been enough to just destroy their company, except they were ‘in’ on AI enough to be buoyed above the catastrophe.
A longer stretch, but nVidia might have some struggles. The AI boom has driven their market cap about 5000%. They’ve largely redefined most of their company to be LLM centric, with other use cases left having to make the most of whatever they do for LLM. How will their stakeholders react to a huge drop from the most important company on earth to a respectable but modest vendor of stuff for graphics? How strong is the appetite for GPU when the visual results aren’t really that much more striking than they were 3 generations of hardware back?
Eyedust@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 days ago
Agreed. Probably where it should have stayed in the first place. Not that its not interesting, just that the scope of AI has widened beyond what it should have.
neukenindekeuken@sh.itjust.works 3 days ago
Depends on when the bust happens. If its in the current admin? All those tech companies are getting bailed out.
Fermion@mander.xyz 3 days ago
I think that might actually send the US into a debt spiral that would require leaning into printing and inflation. Net interest for FY25 is $933 Billion putting servicing debt as the third largest federal expenditure. Any bailout will either be insignificantly small or will tank the dollar.
I’m not saying you’re wrong, but it would be an incredibly stupid thing to do.
skulblaka@sh.itjust.works 3 days ago
So we can pretty much bank on it definitely happening, got it.
LillyPip@lemmy.ca 2 days ago
It’s a good thing trump isn’t dumb enough to think US debt is easily solved by printing more money, right?
Wouldn’t that be crazy?
(I really hope this isn’t something he can actually do. It shouldn’t be possible, but neither should a lot of things he’s done.)
Venator@lemmy.nz 3 days ago
the real danger is it will cause another great depression when it pops…
makyo@lemmy.world 3 days ago
I am having trouble seeing how OpenAI survives without investment cash. What exactly is their moat? I know they are hoping to power the AI behind everyone else’s tech but that is more and more untenable as the others develop AI models of their own.