Take the amount of calories that the world can produce per day. Divide by 1500. You got the upper limit the globe can support in a medium term
Crops are already failing due to droughts and floods. More and more land is turning into land that is not able to sustain crop growth
And that’s even completely ignoring a potential even bigger problem of clean water
Billions will die. Not in 5 or 10 years. But earlier than you’d think
phoenixz@lemmy.ca 3 days ago
Yeah, maybe you should look a little harder?
Wait until crops start dying en masse due to higher temperatures, too many bad insects, too few good insects, no more water.
Wait until you get your 50 degree celcius Summers, which apparently already started in select countries this year.
Wait until forest fires become so big that they simply can’t be controlled anymore and start burning down entire cities
Wait until drinkable water runs out due to us emptying all aquefiers, wells, etc.
Wait until water, food, etc scarcity due to climate change starts the bigger wars over the scraps that are left
You won’t have to wait long, we’re working hard on making these features a reality soon.
I’m not sure what will kill the most people, but I pity those that survive
possiblylinux127@lemmy.zip 3 days ago
I’m looking for more factual peer reviewed research.
I haven’t seen anything to suggest that billions will die. That seems very far fetched to me.
SinAdjetivos@lemmy.world 3 days ago
It’s important to remember that science is inherently conservative and doubly so for climate change Erring on the Side of Least Drama.
If you read any of the IPCC reports you’ll note they are very careful to not really provide any death estimates or anything. However, [one can attempt to extrapolate a risk space from those descriptions] (link.springer.com/article/…/s10584-022-03430-y) from that we can analyze key takeaways from the WG2 report ^1^
Based on the existential risk model, that’s 3.3 billion currently facing some level of existential risks. If the impacts remain “at the high end of previous estimates”, which they very likely will, then that’s >3.3 Billion potential deaths.
^1: using Wikipedia summary because the report is 3675 pages long and ain’t nobody got time for that^
basiclemmon98@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 days ago
Let’s try a new game, the burden of proof is on you, as your the one saying we are all somehow being dramatic. So, go fetch us some credited peer reveiwed papers from the past 5 years that say we are being dramatic…
Muehe@lemmy.ml 2 days ago
Kemp et al. 2022 - Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios
TL;DR: Societal collapse seems possible, more research is needed.