Comment on When the AI bubble bursts
Buffalox@lemmy.world 1 day ago
I don’t think it will, AI will improve transform and expand in areas of usefulness, so I think we are still in the early days.
But at what point can we agree that it didn’t?
When we finally get FSD for real? When AI helps improve diagnosis and saves lives?
When AI creates new molecules that are better than any chemist could do without.
What will it take for people to realize that AI is here to stay? And AI will remain a significant part of our economy.
But at what point can we agree that it didn’t?
When it isn’t killing the planet. When it isn’t straining the power grid making power for homes unreliable. When isn’t costing people jobs. When it doesn’t hallucinate. When it isn’t making people dumber.
Fam have you seen evaluations of AI companies. For the amount of venture capital poured into openai, their profit should 20x or it’ll take a century for the investments to recoup. The reason for why they keep investing is that the AI is supposed to blow up the market and earn gazillions back.
Everyone agrees ML is extremely useful. Most people also agree that LLMs have their uses too.
What we don’t agree is that AI is the printing press, electricity and the internet rolled into one. And if it isn’t, then all this investment is made under false pretense, hence it is a bubble
I’m of two minds about this. On one hand, I do think it will burst. It reminds of the ludicrous claims made about the last two few VC tech bubble trends, like VR and Blockchain. The hype wasn’t that it was a useful technology. It was that these were the new paradigm shifts. These will change how society fundamentally functions. Obviously they didn’t. Obviously those bubbles burst.
Part of the reason, I think, is that the current round of venture capitalists made their fortunes on the internet itself. It was the paradigm shift, and it toppled the way people had done things for a hundred years in a way that can’t really be described to anyone who didn’t live through it. It colonized and conquered every space humans went, and became ubiquitous. Retail stores found themselves under siege by amazon. Video stores found themselves obsoleted by streaming platforms, cable TV and movie theaters fought for relevance. It made some men richer than God. A computer in the palm of your hand, allowing you access to the totality of human knowledge and the collective of human communication. It was like the fucking ansible.
Those structures have calcified now, and the internet is at its limit for integration. So tech bros latch on to ever more destructive technologies named after ever more dystopian sci fi, figuring that throwing a billion at any random project is worth it if pans out once again, and it becomes the next paradigm shift. The problem is that all the projects they try to elevate are mostly just ways to disrupt existing industries and reform them under their control without worker protections. Uber operated at a loss for 15 years just to turn taxi driving into indentured servitude. Mark Zuckerberg was obsessed with VR because his primary competitors owned a hardware platform (so Google owns Android, Apple Iphone etc) and he needed FB to have one too. Being a tech bro, the reason he pitched as meeting software was to undermine commercial real estate. NFTs were an attempt to disrupt central banking. AI is an attempt by Silicon Valley to cut highly paid tech workers from the payroll.
Sorry, this post got away from me. This is the part that has a bubble timer on it, I believe. LLMs produce garbage code, and garbage art. It has inflicted immediate, incalculable harm on people real lives. Eventually, I believe (if the current world order survives anyway) lawmakers will clamp down on it.
I don’t think the VCs care much about the infinite incalculable loss. But there’s this idea that (I think) Robert Evans introduced me to. He noted that Fascists love the infinite lie machine. Fascist governments classically controlled the media, and Russia has demonstrated what a wonderful weapon of war LLMs really are. That alone terrifies me. Its worth something to the worst people, and who knows what might happen if say, Peter Thiel wants to continue underwriting it so that way he can, say, direct fascist uprisings against governments that try to regulate him, or I don’t know, portray striking workers as domestic terrorists.
Blockchain bubble? I don’t think it’s the blockchain that’s in a bubble. Maybe you haven’t check the prices lately… smh.
As far as I am aware, crypto and NFTs are worth nothing. We might see the Federal gov prop it up for a little longer, given how much the industry contributed to Trumps war chest in 2024, but I don’t expect it be actually worth anything.
I was using “Block chain” as a generalized term for what could be called “the NFT” bubble which absolutely was a thing in 2021, kick started by that Beeple auction and continuing until… roughly Dan Olson’s ‘Line Go Up’ video. Bitcoin had obviously existed long before this. But the under tones were that crypto idiots were pitching was that it would replace all regulatory bodies with web3 block chain technology. They wanted to put all records, including Banking and property records (obviously) but also things like medical, employment and educational records as well, including educational and employment accreditation earned. There are a lot of dimensions to this (that are all extremely dystopian), but I feel confident calling that a tech bubble, with the exact same paradigm shift mentality that underpins the thought process underpinning AI right now.
Even technologies that totally transform society, like trains or the Internet, can overinvest and eventually pop. It doesnt mean the tech goes away, it just means investors take a bath and the dead weight gets burned off.
Yes I think Facebook and Microsoft may lose money on this, you could call that over investing, but for it to be a bubble that burst, companies need to go down, and people lose money on it.
Otherwise you may be looking for a completely different word which is fad, a period where something is over hyped, but quickly settles down like Fidget Spinners.
I don’t think we will see a financial bubble burst due to AI.
META is losing money like crazy on their “META” project that will never succeed, and they may lose just as much on AI, but they will not go bankrupt on it.
What I mean is that more money will be made on AI, than is currently lost experimenting with it.
It would be pretty unusual for a company on the scale of Facebook or Microsoft to go under due to a bubble like this, although it is slightly possible they might slip down a tier in the shuffle. Its more likely well see lots of shitty little companies tacking AI onto things that dont need AI go under, and the speculative ventures burning investor money on market share or technologies that may never turn profitable will be thinned out greatly. Its also possible we could see some big names that dont have revenue outside the AI market suffer financial setbacks and be absorbed. Its also possible the bubble could continue to grow for years and we could see some really ridiculous investments and an even more devastating crash in the end.
I think the difference here is that you can’t quite just put an AI tag on something, and then investors flock to give you money.
The AI companies that are invested in, are mostly companies that actually have something to show. And the biggest investment and benefactor is Nvidia that actually makes loads of money from AI products.
When AI creates new molecules that are better than any chemist could do without AI.
lmao
It’s too damned useful. About every day I check Gemini and ChatGPT for a word or phrase I can’t remember, input some crap and out pops what I was looking for. I use if for a chunk of code I can’t get my head around. It’s the next Google and everyone wants a piece.
OTOH, I do see a sharp downturn in investment as things shake out. Like to dot.com bubble, there will be winners and losers, but you’re spot on. Investors aren’t spazzing out on every single opportunity. Still, gonna be some losers.
We can talk about the dangers of AI all night long, but it’s here to stay.
similarly when there’s some simple arithmetic I can’t mentally calculate I use a cloud based coal powered statistical word generator because I don’t realize that there are existing dedicated tools for the job and it’s easier for me to defecate my stream of consciousness into a chat window than to take my eyes off vertical infinite scrolling video long enough to take basic troubleshooting steps
I agree 100%, and yes there are always losers due to competition and failure to compete. Just like some companies are losing money making cars, but cars are obviously not a bubble.
Maybe the most of the hype is over for now among investors, but AFAIK Nvidia who is the biggest supplier of hardware for it, is not seeing a slowdown in demand.
So maybe it’s more a slow down of interest in the media?
The dot-com bubbles only eliminated companies that didn’t have a stable business; those that did only saw their value drop slightly. However, they later recovered and became the giants they are today.
Then in the future the term BIG AI will emerge with the new companies and the old companies in the market.
saltesc@lemmy.world 1 day ago
It will burst. It’s expanding at the same rate it always has, just LLMs have gotten attention from normal users who seem to think “this is AI”.
For actual AI, nothing has changed. You still need extremely well governed data and lots and lots of controlled training, lots and lots of condition farming and resolving, all at considerable cost not worth it for BAU, just AI-soecific projects.
It’s already bursting, as people realise what is AGI and what is non-logic LLMs and why the latter has limited use, especially with awful mass “training”.
The most realistic outcome is that LLMs are able to assist in increasing the pace of AGI.
Buffalox@lemmy.world 1 day ago
This is blatantly false, there’s a reason there is talk of the cold winter of AI, and the long walk in the desert.
The desert walk was at least 2 decades of very little progress despite big investments, the cold winter was another decade without much progress because of disillusionment so nobody wanted to invest in it.
AI has progressed more for the past 10-15 years than it did for 40 years from about the 70’s to about 2010.
technocrit@lemmy.dbzer0.com 18 hours ago
Yeah the reason is corny grifters with wacky analogies.