Picture is as murky as a barrel of oil, with US companies in 2026 expecting their first production drop in four years

US shale-oil producers were already contending with oil prices at four-year lows. News that they may soon face a significant competitor in their back yard likely wasn’t how frackers wanted to greet 2026.

The US capture of Venezuelan president Nicolaá Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, hit the share prices of independent shale-oil producers, such as Diamondback Energy and Devon Energy, last week.

Over the last 20 years, the US fracking industry has built itself into the main driver of domestic oil production: it accounted for 64% of total US crude oil production in 2023. With average production levels of 13.6m barrels a day (BPD), the US is the world’s largest crude-oil producer.