Pope Betting Odds: Bettors Lose Millions Predicting the New Pope as Polymarket Edge Fizzles Out

Comments

• sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  The article doesn’t really state what your short summary states.

  The reason Polymarket bettors got the papal conclave result so wrong is that the event is extremely hard to predict, Domer, one of Polymarket’s top pseudonymous bettors, said on X.

  “It’s like walking into a store that doesn’t communicate with the outside world,” he said. “Not even the participants themselves would probably know how to handicap it.”

  Choosing a new pope isn’t an open process, so there’s very little information to go off of. Something like an election has a lot of public information, so those betting odds are more likely to represent the actual odds in the election.

  I really don’t think there’s much to learn here, other than that choosing a new pope is chaotic and the process isn’t very open.

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  • qt0x40490FDB@lemmy.ml ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    In situations like this it may make sense to just bet on all the underdogs. The market is highly overconfident in its information, you think the markets information is crap, so you just bet against the market by taking the underdogs.

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    • sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      I just think it’s foolhardy to bet at all. There’s not enough information to make an informed decision, and even if you think you’ll have better average odds by betting on the underdogs, this is a very rare event so you don’t have the time to make it back up in averages.

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• IsaamoonKHGDT_6143@lemmy.zip ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  When you can’t manipulate the outcome, you’re almost guaranteed to lose.

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• socsa@piefed.social ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  Imagine being such a degenerate that you bet on the Pope.

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• wewbull@feddit.uk ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  “Bettors lose”… Bookies win.

  Is this news?

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  • Thekingoflorda@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    There are no bookies on polymarket.

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• cupcakezealot@lemmy.blahaj.zone ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  good

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• altphoto@lemmy.today ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  The Orange turd final age bet I’d still on. Same for the exact time putin’s skull encompasses twice it’s current volume.

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