The event throws into question the perceived heightened accuracy of betting markets like Poymarket over conventional polls.
good
Pope Betting Odds: Bettors Lose Millions Predicting the New Pope as Polymarket Edge Fizzles Out
Submitted 21 hours ago by technocrit@lemmy.dbzer0.com to technology@lemmy.world
Comments
cupcakezealot@lemmy.blahaj.zone 3 hours ago
sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 21 hours ago
The article doesn’t really state what your short summary states.
The reason Polymarket bettors got the papal conclave result so wrong is that the event is extremely hard to predict, Domer, one of Polymarket’s top pseudonymous bettors, said on X.
“It’s like walking into a store that doesn’t communicate with the outside world,” he said. “Not even the participants themselves would probably know how to handicap it.”
Choosing a new pope isn’t an open process, so there’s very little information to go off of. Something like an election has a lot of public information, so those betting odds are more likely to represent the actual odds in the election.
I really don’t think there’s much to learn here, other than that choosing a new pope is chaotic and the process isn’t very open.
qt0x40490FDB@lemmy.ml 18 hours ago
In situations like this it may make sense to just bet on all the underdogs. The market is highly overconfident in its information, you think the markets information is crap, so you just bet against the market by taking the underdogs.
sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 18 hours ago
I just think it’s foolhardy to bet at all. There’s not enough information to make an informed decision, and even if you think you’ll have better average odds by betting on the underdogs, this is a very rare event so you don’t have the time to make it back up in averages.
IsaamoonKHGDT_6143@lemmy.zip 20 hours ago
When you can’t manipulate the outcome, you’re almost guaranteed to lose.
tabular@lemmy.world 4 hours ago
Technology
socsa@piefed.social 16 hours ago
Imagine being such a degenerate that you bet on the Pope.
wewbull@feddit.uk 2 hours ago
“Bettors lose”… Bookies win.
Is this news?