I cannot fathom why I wouldn’t be pessimistic about a tool that’s being crammed into places it doesn’t fit. There are a small handful of things generative algorithms are genuinely useful for. But expecting it to magically solve anything else is foolish, and always will be.
Comment on Peter Thiel dumps entire Nvidia stake, slashes Tesla holdings amid bubble fears
blarth@thelemmy.club 1 day agoPeople are way too pessimistic about AI. NVIDIA is going to sell GPUs by the truckload until research finds a way around CUDA.
Sure, the pace of big leaps has slowed, but I liken this phase to the early 1900s. Cars were slow and unreliable, but once the technology took foothold and the 4th Industrial Revolution really took off, look how much progress was made. We went to the moon by the 60s.
forrgott@lemmy.zip 1 day ago
blarth@thelemmy.club 1 day ago
This is what I’m talking about. “Always will be”? AGI will come. Don’t bet against it.
CybranM@feddit.nu 1 day ago
I don’t disagree with you about AGI but the timeframe is the big question. Will it come in a decade or a century? Impossible to know.
It seems the current predictive machine learning is reaching it’s breaking point and improvements are slowing down. Is that because the limit is reached or just a temporary slowdown until something better is discovered. Also impossible to know
I have no doubts that AGI will eventually arrive unless we blow ourselves up
incompetent@programming.dev 1 day ago
I don’t disagree with you about AGI but the timeframe is the big question. Will it come in a decade or a century? Impossible to know.
I have no doubts that AGI will eventually arrive unless we blow ourselves up
I was just about to say the same thing! I’m guessing it will take a bit longer than a decade and I’m not too optimistic about our chances of surviving that long. Well, at least surviving with all of our technology intact.
blarth@thelemmy.club 19 hours ago
I would bet on AGI arriving sooner rather than later.
The primary limiting factor right now is availability of power and space. Once small modular reactors start to really take off, we are going to see insane growth in AI development.
trajekolus@piefed.social 1 day ago
Interesting comparison, but how many of the original car companies are still around today? And did those early car companies inflate and manipulate the stock market?- they probably weren’t even publicly traded in the early days.
I think a crash is on its way.
Prove_your_argument@piefed.social 1 day ago
I really just see current AI as search 2.0.
It’s less dumb, but it’s still fucking dumb. Search gives me garbage results constantly, so does AI. AI is usually just a little bit easier to figure out since you just ask it natural language questions unlike traditional search.
When googling anything today you really can’t find useful information unless it’s a very specific set of instructions usually on a social media site. AI doesn’t give you nearly as much garbage unless you start asking it really complex questions.
2xar@lemmy.world 1 day ago
The sad thing is, we’ve already had this figured out before.
15-20 years ago Google was almost perfect. It completely blew my mind how accurate and fast it was. Many times it felt like it was a mind-reader. I didn’t even type in half my question and it was already auto-completing it and showing the results, the first few of which contained a very exact and detailed answer that someone wrote on a forum somewhere or an article that completely gave the answer. Remember the old ‘I’m feeling lucky’ button witch directly took you to the first search result? Yea, it was pretty usable back then, because the first result was usually correct. Pepperidge farm 'members…
And then the enshittification started by pumping the site full of ads. First the ads were pretty distinguishable from the real results and you could just scroll through them. Then they started to disguise the ads more and more like real results, and just showing more of them. And by now I think google is basically ONLY ads. There are NO real results on it. Virtually the only ‘content’ you are shown are what somebody has payed for google to show. Even if what you are looking for is a very well known, public interest fact, if nobody is paying for it, google is not going to show it. E.g. the other day google could not find the website of a country-wide utility company for electricity by typing their exact name, because I guess they haven’t paid their monthly ads for google.
Luckily there are other alternatives to google, which still have ‘don’t do evil’ in their corporate philosophy. None of them are close to as good as google used to be, especially if you are not searching in english. But still a hell of a lot better than google is now.
mycodesucks@lemmy.world 1 day ago
There is more to it than that… 20 years ago most of the people on the internet were likely similar to you, so most of their desired results were similar to yours.
Now people on the internet since the early 2000 are a minority compared to the “democratized” flood of users who joined in the mobile crapplication phase and started skewing search results towards simpler, less useful results.
SEO and ads didn’t help, but the whole ecosystem broke the model.
bobgobbler@lemmy.zip 1 day ago
None of what you said explains what they are talking about lol.
It’s like you have no experience with what they’re talking about
vacuumflower@lemmy.sdf.org 1 day ago
I don’t like elitism. The least techy people I know are the most culturally similar to what I was seeing on the Internet 20 years ago.
Because despite being less necessary for daily survival and thus less popular, it was also less structured and less hierarchical.
It’s the other way around honestly, the “techy types knowing better” have built leviathans.
You might not see it, but when people talk about some “better” Internet, an alternative timeline from the 90s to what we got, it’s funny. Because there are people who have that better Internet, Facebook’s and Google’s and others’ infrastructure inside is basically that. These companies and other such have been created and driven by that exact smarter kind of people which you seem to claim was opposed to the bad changes that transpired in the world and on the Internet. And the “democratized” crowd of monkeys was complaining, but couldn’t do anything. Then that same crowd, yes, started using what was given to them. Because the crowd of monkeys is wiser, they look at the whole forest and not some particular trees, as they are not the foresters, and they see when the wind changes. They are not interested in sectarian holywars over specific technologies or elitism on tech, because their interests and elitism are usually in different domains.
Each and every case of something not shit becoming shit is connected to a group of smartasses getting their way at forcing the world go some chosen path. Because nobody is smart enough to chose that path correctly, and when those not smart enough people can no longer get each and every other person’s approval to what they’re doing before doing that, they are turning things into shit.
I also remember how in year 2003 as a kid I loved HTML 4 and such as they were and didn’t understand what are all those movements to CSS, why Flash is bad, and so on. I was a monkey. There were some smarter monkeys who’d say there’s technological development ahead of us, and that it will be better than what we have. And there were some wiser monkeys, who’d predict correctly where all this is going.
OK, some of the wiser monkeys were also studying CS, so now I’m simplifying things to help my claim.
It’s just - when a smaller group decides for all, this is called degeneracy. Degeneracy is not a compliment to the organism described as degenerate.
lauha@lemmy.world 1 day ago
Google search was was better before, like 10 years ago
Prove_your_argument@piefed.social 1 day ago
Yes. Every year the SEO slop article bloat increases.
The trend has been steadily downwards for at least another decade as money making has been the goal above and beyond everything else.
In some ways I think the internet’s era is coming to an end. I don’t even know what the fuck we call it but the slop has taken over. Every website with information has paywalls or the most horrific advertisements we’ve ever seen.
I don’t understand how people even use the internet without ad blockers but many do. Every day all the anti Adblock tech updates and breaks everything unless you fuck with it, and they usually fix it. Feels like any day we’re just a couple of small changes away from BIOS level DRM where no website can be viewed without windows configured with secure boot and some officially sanctioned DRM rootkit. After all, who cares about Linux support when it’s such a small market share? Stuff like chat control feels adjacent to this.
dogs0n@sh.itjust.works 1 day ago
I don’t doubt they’ll keep selling more GPUs, but AI certainly looks like a bubble that’s ready to burst with all the fake money going around in circles (assuming those diagrams are correct, which I assume they are).
Not the mention the lies that are keeping AI companies propped up, like AGI that will replace everything “in 3 months”. Pretty sure they missed that deadline already.
With the current “fake” money, lies and over-investment, something bad is surely going to happen unless someone steps in.
AI advances quite a bit each day, but I’m not sold on AGI becoming a thing any time soon, maybe even ever idk.
incompetent@programming.dev 1 day ago
with all the fake money going around in circles (assuming those diagrams are correct, which I assume they are)
I’m not familiar with those. Do you have one handy or maybe some keywords so I can look it up?
dogs0n@sh.itjust.works 1 day ago
Think this one was the one going around
Not sure what you can lookup, probably stuff like “AI investment bubble”
This is probably a good resource (haven’t read it) en.wikipedia.org/wiki/AI_bubble (specifically look under
Speculation > Circular Financing, soz dunno how to link to a header)incompetent@programming.dev 1 day ago
I really appreciate the info. Yikes! This isn’t looking good.
sugar_in_your_tea@sh.itjust.works 22 hours ago
All that shows is who the business partners are. Nvidia sells GPUs, AI companies buy GPUs, and companies buy products from AI companies. For example, Microsoft’s Copilot is based on OpenAI’s models. End customers buy products from companies that either do AI themselves or buy products from AI companies.
All you’re seeing here is how markets work. If it’s a bubble, it’ll likely impact those in the picture, but it’s not a bubble because of the picture.
GaryGhost@lemmy.world 1 day ago
AI is causing water shortages, rising electric costs and chip shortages. AI is just a fancy search engine, that can be a useful tool. It was awesome for ai to read my blood test results but I don’t need it for most things, a waste of energy. Search engines should have an off button for ai, turn the lights off when we’re not using it.
rafoix@lemmy.zip 1 day ago
Google search used to be able to find answers in the old days.
fuzzzerd@programming.dev 1 day ago
The sad truth is that today traditional search engines have been run into the ground by SEO, and some how chatbots backed by LLMs are producing what Google used to call the “I’m feeling Lucky” button. It used to just automatically take you to the first result for your query which was usually what you wanted.
drosophila@lemmy.blahaj.zone 1 day ago
Its not just SEO, they intentionally made search worse.
blarth@thelemmy.club 1 day ago
I totally understand the challenges with infrastructure that need solving, but that doesn’t mean AI is useless or that it’ll never be better than it is now.
Frankly, the “AI slop” crusade isn’t working. It’s time to choose a new fighter.