If tariffs cause a rise in US production
This is one of the problems with the Trumpian approach to tariffs. I don’t know if you hadn’t noticed, but there’s remarkably little manufacturing in the USA for quite some time now, but let’s play this out.
The cost to set up a laptop manufacturing firm in the US is anywhere from $50,000,000 to $200,000,000. Then, you’ve gotta acquire all the raw materials and components to assemble the laptops, let’s call that another $500,000,000. Then, of course, you’ve gotta staff the place, and this is in a country where we do not have a lot of people that are experienced in manufacturing. Let’s call that another $100,000,000. By the time you add in R&D, logistics costs, legal and compliance (because the US is a bit more stringent than China in this area), you’re talking about $1 - $3 BILLION in costs.
Now, out of the few people / companies that have enough money to actually set up a laptop manufacturer in the USA, think about how confident they’d have to be to pull this off. The largest problem is, if you spend your billion dollars and build this factory and then the next week Trump removes the tariff, you’re instantly competing with foreign firms again, and you’re going to be going under pretty fast.
I’d say this tariff would have to be in place at LEAST 10 years before anyone gets confident enough to spend the massive amount of money and effort quoted above. When you think about how many millions of laptops are going to get sold between now and then, it’s pretty clear the American consumer is going to take a huge bath in the meantime.
Like so many things Trump is doing, this tariff is supposed to piss off China but just ends up fucking the consumer. Trump and his billionaire friends don’t care if a laptop is an extra $200. That’s change they can find under the couch. For your average American trying to make ends meet, that $200 sure as fuck would be useful.
So go ahead, vote Republican to “own the libs”. Just don’t be surprised when the sudden pain you feel in your wallet is very real.
EncryptKeeper@lemmy.world 4 days ago
The same amount of laptops will come over, we’ll just be paying more for them.
shortwavesurfer@lemmy.zip 4 days ago
If they cost more, it would also disincentivize spending on the laptop unless it’s necessary. So theoretically fewer laptops should come over. If you don’t buy a laptop because your laptop isn’t really in need of replacement, then you just saved 100%. Or you could also buy a used laptop that’s newer than the one you have from somebody else in good condition and save some percentage of what you would have paid for the new one anyway.
Just as an example, I’m rocking a laptop from 2014 with an Intel 3rd generation Core i7. Obviously the newest Intel is the 13th generation, but you can find Intel 7th and 8th generation laptops which are much newer than mine for decent prices.
Blue_Morpho@lemmy.world 4 days ago
No one buys an Acer laptop because they want it like a new iPhone. They buy it because they have to.
TheTechnician27@lemmy.world 4 days ago
Erm
shortwavesurfer@lemmy.zip 4 days ago
LOL, just goes to show. I don’t keep up with processors close enough, apparently.
thejml@lemm.ee 4 days ago
Correct, except that more people buying used laptops will incentivize people to upgrade more often as they can depend on a strong secondhand market to recoup some of the cost of the new one by selling the old one.
shortwavesurfer@lemmy.zip 4 days ago
That’s a fair point. The way I see it, it’s similar to buying a car. If you buy a new car, as soon as you drive it off the lot, it loses $3,000 in value and depreciates quite a bit within the first year. If you buy a one-year-old used car, it’s still in pretty good condition and has had the “new” tax deducted already.
BackgrndNoize@lemmy.world 3 days ago
Laptops aren’t funko pops, no one’s buying extra cause they want to get one in every color. People buy them out of necessity. So no this isn’t gonna discourage anything, maybe it’ll get people to try and repair their older laptops, but because of corporate greed, most modern laptops aren’t designed for repair ability, rather they go out of their way to make it harder to repair, and they don’t release sufficient schematics and spare parts needed for repair, not to mention there are only so many technicians or tech savvy people with the know how to repair them.