Comment on Trump tariffs result in 10% laptop price hike in U.S. says Acer CEO
yarr@feddit.nl 3 days agoI hope there is a prediction market on this at some point because I do not think it’s likely that they will be able to block elections. I’d love to put my money where my mouth is.
thanksforallthefish@literature.cafe 3 days ago
Oh they won’t stop / block the elections initially they’ll hold that first one & just conveniently get 75+% of the vote like every dictator before him.
I’m happy to put money on it if you can find a market. I’ve been unfortunately right too much, not because I’m smart but because you can literally pull out a history of Nazi rise and map it onto MAGA and the last 10 years. The only hard bit is guessing the timings, not what, just when.
I’d really like you guys to break out of this and prove me wrong
yarr@feddit.nl 3 days ago
Here you go friend: this is a prediction market on whether the Republicans or Democrats will win the house next year: kalshi.com/markets/controlh/house-winner
If your prediction is right and there are no more elections this will be easy money for you.
thanksforallthefish@literature.cafe 2 days ago
Ok, but this isn’t a betting site, this is an options contract, which given the current price split of 73c:28c is not a good buy (winning isn’t profitable and you’re tying your money up for 2years).
The price however is inline with my statement - that market considers a GOP win a near certainty.
I’ve checked the mainstream betting sites and GOP are solidly odds on (4/6 on through 8/13on) which isnt hugely profitable but I guess it’ll shorten even further
yarr@feddit.nl 2 days ago
You are reading the results backwards - Kalshi predicts a Democratic win at ~70% (as of now) probability. I agree the payback isn’t huge… but if you’re SURE then it’s easy money!