Says the person who is primarily paid with Amazon stock, wants to see that stock price rise for their own benefit, and won’t be in that job two years from now to be held accountable. Also, who has never written a kind of code. Yeah…. Ok. 🤮
Amazon cloud boss echoes NVIDIA CEO on coding being dead in the water: "If you go forward 24 months from now, it's possible that most developers are not coding"
Submitted 2 months ago by floofloof@lemmy.ca to technology@lemmy.world
Comments
captainastronaut@seattlelunarsociety.org 2 months ago
lemmyvore@feddit.nl 2 months ago
If you go forward 12 months the AI bubble will have burst. If not sooner.
Most companies who bought into the hype are now (or will be soon) realizing it’s nowhere near the ROI they hoped for, that the projects they’ve been financing are not working out, that forcing their people to use Copilot did not bring significant efficiency gains, and more and more are realizing they’ve been exchanging private and/or confidential data with Microsoft and boy there’s a shitstorm gathering on that front.
Nighed@sffa.community 2 months ago
If you have the ability to build an AI app in house - holy shit shit that can improve productivity. Copilot itself for office use… Meh so far.
lemmyvore@feddit.nl 2 months ago
The most successful ML in-house projects I’ve seen took at least 3 times as long than initially projected to become usable, and the results were underwhelming.
You have to keep in mind that most of the corporate ML undertakings are fundamentally flawed because they don’t use ML specialists. They use eager beavers who are enthusiastic about ML and entirely self-taught and will move on in 1 year and want to have “AI” on their resume when they leave.
Meanwhile, any software architect worth their salt will diplomatically avoid to give you any clear estimate for anything having to do with ML – because it’s basically a black box full of hopes and dreams. They’ll happily give you estimates and build infrastructure around the box but refuse to touch the actual thing with a ten foot pole.
IndustryStandard@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Cloud tech seller sells cloud
Aurelius@lemmy.world 2 months ago
All the manufacturers of mechanical keyboards just cried 🥺
UnderpantsWeevil@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Translation: “We’re going to make the suite for building, testing, and deploying so obnoxiously difficult to integrate with your work environment that in two years nobody in your DevOps team will be able to get anything to a release state.”
Me, fiddling with a config file for a legacy Perl script: “Uh, yeah that’s great.”
ulkesh@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Nonsense. But then CEOs rarely know what the hell they’re talking about.
TheObviousSolution@lemm.ee 2 months ago
Can I join anyone’s band of AI server farm raiders 24 months from now? Anyone forming a group? I will bring my meat bicycle.
MangoPenguin@lemmy.blahaj.zone 2 months ago
I wonder how they think that’s possible, the attempts I’ve made at having an “AI” produce working code have failed spectacularly.
DirigibleProtein@aussie.zone 2 months ago
It will be interesting to find out if these words will come back and haunt them.
- “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers”.
- “640K ought to be enough for anybody.”
tal@lemmy.today 2 months ago
That’d be an exciting world, since it’d massively increase access to software.
I am also very dubious about that claim.
In the long run, I do think that AI can legitimately handle a great deal of what humans do today. It’s something to think about, plan for, sure.
I do not think that anything we have today is remotely near being on the brink of the kind of technical threshold required to do that, and I think that even in a world where that was true, that it’d probably take more than 2 years to transition most of the industry.
I am enthusiastic about AI’s potential. I think that there is also – partly because we have a fair number of unknowns unknowns, and partly because people have a strong incentive to oversell the particular AI thing that they personally are involved with to investors and the like – a tendency to be overly-optimistic about the near-term potential.
I have another comment a while back talking about why I’m skeptical that the process of translating human-language requirements to machine-language instructions is going to be as amenable as translating human-language to human-consumable output. The gist, though, is that:
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Humans rely on stuff that “looks to us like” what’s going on in the real world to cue our brain to construct something. That’s something where the kind of synthesis that people are doing with latent diffusion software works well. An image that’s about 80% “accurate” works well enough for us; the lighting being a little odd or maybe an extra toe or something is something that we can miss. Ditto for natural-language stuff. But machine language doesn’t work like that. A CPU requires a very specific set of instructions. If 1% is “off”, a software package isn’t going to work at all.
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The process of programming involves incorporating knowledge about the real world with a set of requirements, because those requirements are in-and-of-themselves usually incomplete. This “deep knowledge and understanding of the world” is the hard stuff to do for AI. If we could do that, that’s the kind of stuff that would let us create a general artificial intelligence that could do what a human does in general. Stable Diffusion’s “understanding” of the world is limited to statistical properties of a set of 2D images; for that application, I think that we can create a very limited AI that can still produce useful output in a number of areas, which is why, in 2024, without producing an AI capable of performing generalized human tasks, we can still get some useful output from the thing. I don’t think that there’s likely a similar shortcut for much by way of programming. And hell, even for graphic arts, there’s a lot of things that this approach just doesn’t work for. I gave an example earlier in a discussion where I said “try and produce a page out of a comic book using stuff like Stable Diffusion”. It’s not really practical today; Stable Diffusion isn’t building up a 3D mental model of the world, designing an entity that stably persists from image to image, and then rendering that. It doesn’t know how it’s reasonable for objects and the like to interact. I think that to reach that point, you’re going to have to have a much-more-sophsiticated understanding of the world, something that looks a lot more like what a human’s looks like.
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Vipsu@lemmy.world 2 months ago
As software developer I am not scared that A.I will take away our jobs. What I am scared is that at that point A.I good enough to do most jobs out there.
All it really needs to do is replace large chunk of the service industry to do wreck massive havock in our society.
PenisDuckCuck9001@lemmynsfw.com 2 months ago
The economy is going to devolve to the point everyone will be living in a medival-like society and the only way to get food is by using a barter system to trade with other destitute poor people. Learn a medival skill. I’m doing machining and blacksmithing.
spyd3r@sh.itjust.works 2 months ago
I guess the programmers should start learning how to mine coal…
assembly@lemmy.world 2 months ago
We will all be given old school Casio calculators a d sent to crunch numbers in the bitcoin mines.
suburban_hillbilly@lemmy.ml 2 months ago
Guys selling something claim it will make you taller and thinner, your dick bigger, your mother in law stop calling, and work as advertised.
Schneemensch@programming.dev 2 months ago
While I do understand all of the scepticism in this thread, I have to say that I am personally amazed by GitHub Copilot.
I am just ramping up in a new company working on web development with Angular and Spring Boot. Even though I have 0 experience with this and have a background in python and C++, I got productive extremely quickly thanks to Copilot. Of course it does not work without flaws and you still need programming knowledge to wirte proper prompts and fix smaller issues in the resulting code. But without it I would be much further behind. It was even able to fix some issues in the html just based on a description of the issue I am observing in the webpage.
I do not think it will replace all programmers, but I do think it will replace some low level programmers who did repetitive tasks as the good programmers are extremely accelerated by only having to type subsets of what was needed before.
echodot@feddit.uk 2 months ago
The thing about co-pilot is if you don’t do anything with it it just sits there.
You can’t give it a prompt you actually have to code stuff it is a more advanced version of autocomplete. Now admittedly it can write very large chunks of boilerplate code which is extremely helpful but it can’t code the entire app and it can’t work with natural language prompts at all.
Respect chatGPT, (It really needs a better name) is a more capable coder than copilot
floofloof@lemmy.ca 2 months ago
GitHub Copilot does chat like ChatGPT, and writes code based on a prompt. I use it a lot, but it just gives me starting points. You can’t expect to build up a whole application with no coding work on your own part.
fuzzzerd@programming.dev 2 months ago
You can definitely ‘chat’ with copilot, like other llms as well as the inline editor auto complete.
nightlily@leminal.space 2 months ago
If we replace all the low level coders with this fancy, expensive, environmentally destructive autocomplete - where are all the high level coders going to come from? Just spring from clone vats?
Schneemensch@programming.dev 2 months ago
There will still be people who are able to rapidly learn with AI on their side and people who fail to do it. The fast ones are able to focus much more on the underlying problems and less on language specifics. The definition of low level and high level programers will change in the context of AI. Nobody today is implementing a linked list outside of university and in the future nobody will be needed to write the repeated code which still is needed in a lot of frameworks.
But of course there might the point of a critical collapse if AI only learns from its own code and inefficient code gets repeated constantly.
Dkarma@lemmy.world 2 months ago
How will federal contracts work?
Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world 2 months ago
They aren’t wrong, just late. Coding is already dead. Most coders I know spend very little time writing new code. Meeting/discussions about requirements, debugging, fighting with pipelines or tests. I once read that a good programmer writes 10 to 100 lines of fully functional, tested, working, and meeting the actual need code a day. I believe it.
JackbyDev@programming.dev 2 months ago
Okay but you literally said they’re still writing the code though lmao.
Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world 2 months ago
It’s dead, not eradicated. It’s just not what people spend all day doing like they used tp.
Zacryon@feddit.org 2 months ago
Coding is already dead. Most coders I know spend very little time writing new code.
Oh no, I should probably tell this my whole company and all of their partners. We’re just sitting around getting paid for nothing apparently. I’ve never realised that. /s
Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Yeah, it isn’t a new thing. It’s just that the pundits think there are people in dark caves writing code all day with zero human contact. Hasn’t been like that for a long time. Coding is the easy part of the job now for the vast majority if competent coders. Figuring out how to balance what the users want, and what the prod7ct manager tells you to do is the really hard part.
PenisDuckCuck9001@lemmynsfw.com 2 months ago
I left my job in fast food to go to school for tech because it was the thing to do and I wanted to have a good life and be able to afford stuff. So I ruined my life getting a piece of paper only for them to enshittify things to the point it’s fast food or retail only again. Fuck our broken society.
AWittyUsername@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Fast food and retail are fucked too tbh
todd_bonzalez@lemm.ee 2 months ago
Look, if you go back to fast food after getting a B.S. because some disconnected CEO said that programmers aren’t going to exist in a couple years, you’re not digging a hole, you’re jumping head first into it.
Vipsu@lemmy.world 2 months ago
There are already automated kiosks selling Pizza here and most fast food places already allow people to order using their phone or self-service kiosks.
Delivery is also quickly getting automated with small delivery robots that can likely be remote controlled if they get stuck.
While LLMs cannot reason they can imitate which can be combined with more traditional A.I like utility A.I that makes decisions based on a scoring system. I am guessing LLMs will just be used to make A.I systems talk and execute actions while the actual “inteligence” will be handled through more traditional methods.