Predictive Policing Software Is Terrible At Predicting Crimes

Comments

• Perroboc@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  That’s because you’re not engraving the suspects name in wooden balls based on the dreams of 3 people sleeping in some weird hot tubs.

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  • Gyrolemmy@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

    To be honest in the US, most crimes are already Minority Reports

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    • snooggums@kbin.social ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

      Turns out if you just assume any minority is always guilty of a crime and only take action against them, the statistics back up your assumptions instead of reality!

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• flamingo_pinyata@sopuli.xyz ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  Less than 1%? Did they forget to flip a boolean condition?
  Like that’s worse than random, it’s worse than if you intentionally wanted to be wrong.

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  • deranger@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

    How do you figure that’s worse than random? Randomly attempting to predict crimes would likely be 0% accurate. I’m not supporting predictive policing at all, just curious what brought you to that conclusion. This isn’t a 50/50 kinda thing.

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    • Edgelord_Of_Tomorrow@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

      If you randomly selected a citizen as the culprit every time a crime was committed the only percentage of accuracy it wouldn’t be is 0%, because it’s inevitable you would be right at least once.

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    • three@lemm.ee ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

      would likely be 0%

      shut the fuck up lmfao all you gotta do is say the black dude getting out of prison headed to the halfway house is going to rob the cornerstore and you’re at 97-98%

      this dude just asserted 0% like he has a doctorate in predictive policing jsus chrst

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  • Semi-Hemi-Demigod@kbin.social ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

    Somebody used a > when they should have used a <

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• hperrin@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  I know how they could make it thousands of times more accurate. Just rewrite it to always point at Wall Street.

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• profdc9@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  The police need crimes and criminals to justify their existence. If the criminals are selected by a computer program, that is sufficient for their purposes.

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  • ChaoticEntropy@feddit.uk ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

    Nobody likes unsolved crimes, so justice will now be dispensed arbitrarily based on an algorithm.

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    • winterayars@sh.itjust.works ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

      Simply convict one person for each crime. The computer pointed at that person for this crime so they must be guilty.

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• ShaggySnacks@lemmy.myserv.one ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  An algorithm needs good data, I would wager a bet that the Police are very good at keeping data that is racist and terrible.

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• hoshikarakitaridia@sh.itjust.works ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  Yay more convictions for driving while black. Great.

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• waterbogan@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  How did they manage to do so spectacularly badly. I think part of the problem is that they were trying to predict times and locations, rather than focusing on individual offenders. Past record is highly predicitive of future behaviour, i.e. if an offender has committed assault half a dozen times, it is highly probable that they will commit another assault or similar violent offence again, we just dont know when or where

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• DontMakeMoreBabies@kbin.social ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  For now.

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  • snooggums@kbin.social ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

    Forever.

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    • DontMakeMoreBabies@kbin.social ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

      I mean that's just not a realistic thing to believe. People aren't actually unique or special. So at some point computational power will meet the right algorithm and suddenly we can model morons.

      Short sprint to predictive policing.

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    • GeekyNerdyNerd@sh.itjust.works ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

      Highly unlikely that’ll be the case forever. We can already do population level behavioral prediction for advertising purposes. It’s just a matter of time, quality data generation, and finding the right algorithm before we will be able to accurately predict where and when police resources should be deployed to efficiently deter crime. Especially since we already have a decent idea as to the factors that generally lead to spikes in crime-rates things like: poverty, widespread social isolation and low social cohesion, alcohol and drug use, perceived opportunity, and the presence of easily victimized populations such as racial minorities, religious minorities, the disabled, and the LGBT+ community.

      Tbh, we don’t even need such an algorithm because we already know that the best ways to reduce crime are to increase protections for those minorities, alleviate poverty, reduce the presence of alcohol selling establishments, provide addiction/mental illness care, promote social cohesion, and have community events where law enforcement builds trust and bonds with their local communities, promoting co-operation and mutual respect between law enforcement and the people they are supposed to protect. In other words, the best ways to combat crime are the exact opposite of what everyone in the USA has generally been doing, especially conservative areas. Predictive policing is only even desirable because we don’t want to do the hard work of actually improving people’s lives and building communities where crime isn’t something people have/want to consider.

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• SendMePhotos@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  Ah shit are we already going minority report and psycho pass?

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• spudwart@spudwart.com ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  I guess that’s an L for crime-coefficients.

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• NightLily@lemmy.basedcount.com ⁨1⁩ ⁨year⁩ ago

  LETS FUCKING GOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO DOWN WITH PREDICTIONS!

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