There will be chaos. Imagine Libya but ten times worse. Israel will bomb regularly to maintain instability and the Americans will be pitting groups against each other, with the Saudis and UAE backing ISIL and other extremist groups. If the Shah’s son does get into power, he will need to rule with an iron fist, with the backing of the US, as people still remember the tyranny of his father’s regime. Expect him to bring back the dreaded secret police his father used to have, with arrests, torture and disappearances. Meanwhile, the diaspora in the West, who are chanting for regime change won’t actually go back to live there again
If the protests in Iran win/topple the government what will it look like immediately afterwards? Also what would be the good or bad about installing a monarchy again?
Submitted 1 day ago by Patnou@lemmy.world to nostupidquestions@lemmy.world
Comments
robomuffin79@lemmy.world 1 day ago
bufalo1973@piefed.social 1 day ago
So the same but without the sharia, right?
ICastFist@programming.dev 8 hours ago
For the Iranians, yeah, different asshole, same shit
ravenaspiring@sh.itjust.works 1 day ago
So this doesn’t entirely answer your question, but it’s worth watching this reallifelore video on Why Iran Is Dying, as it’s good context for that background of what is going on and gives a frame for what’s next. www.youtube.com/watch?v=n8kSGH4I8Ps
🇮🇷 Iran – TL;DR (Markdown)
🔥 Immediate Flash-Points
- Security nosedive: Hezbollah, Hamas, Assad proxies left in tatters; Israeli/US jets roam Iranian skies at will.
- New NATO wedge: US-brokered Armenia–Azerbaijan deal may choke Iran off from Russia via the Caucasus.
- Eastern squeeze: Taliban dams on the Helmand & Hari Rivers cut Iranian water to a trickle → border skirmishes.
- Mass deportation: 1.1 million Afghans expelled in one month in a doomed attempt to force more water downstream.
💧 Depleting, Salting, Sinking
Metric Recent Status Pre-Crisis Reference Tehran rainfall 2025 projection = 100 mm Historic norm = 260 mm Tehran reservoirs 258 Mm³ left Long-term average 618 Mm³ National groundwater 200 Bm³ gone, most rest is salty Original 500 Bm³ Land subsidence 10–31 cm / yr Critical global = 4 mm / yr - Lake Urmia – Former largest lake in ME is 90 % gone; dust-storms surging.
- Isfahan – 23 Bm³ air-void under city after centuries of aquifer tap.
🏗️ How We Got Here
-
1949–1979 – Shah‐Era
- Hoover-Dam envy → launch of mega-dam program. Displaced ancient qanat system.
- Industrialization forced onto the water-scarce central plateau.
-
1979+ – Post-Revolution Float-or-Die Policy
- Iraq war + US embargo → “Food-export-import is treason”.
- IRGC-crony “Water Mafia” bloats projects: 80k wells → 800 k wells, 316 dams (2012) → 647 dams (2018).
-
Climate & Corruption
- Fuel subsidies fund inefficient irrigation; 90 % of drinkable water now feeds ag that earns <12 % GDP.
- 90 % pipeline leakage vs <10 % in advanced countries.
🗺️ Ethnic Break-points
Region Issue Sistan-Baluchestan Helmand dam chokes wetlands → fuels Baloch separatism. Khuzestan Highly salted Karun River attacks Arab minority irrigation. Azerbaijan & Kurdistan Vanished Lake Urmia sparks Kurdish–Azeri clashes. 🔮 Forecast
- Even with optimal policy, models: +2.6 °C, –35 % rain in coming decades.
- Iran already spends more water/year than Turkey (similar pop). Beyond end-game for aquifers.
✋ What Would Fix It (but won’t happen soon)
- Immediate well capping & metering.
- Kill water-intensive farm subsidies.
- Redivert IRGC-controlled cash from nukes & foreign proxies to desalination & pipeline repair.
- Accept food import dependence as necessity.
TL;DR in one bold phrase:
Iran is simultaneous geopolitical whiplash + ecological free-fall..mrdown@lemmy.world 1 day ago
You forgot to mention how the Shah took power backed by the usa and uk after organizing a coup
ICastFist@programming.dev 8 hours ago
Those pesky nationalists thinking they could nationalize oil just because they fairly elected a president that wanted to do that!!!
mrdown@lemmy.world 1 day ago
Chaos. Since israel and the usa are involved. You can choose between Iraq, Syria or Lybia
FriendOfDeSoto@startrek.website 1 day ago
The economy is shit. No matter who will be in charge, they will fight an uphill battle.
There is one example in recent history where the reinstallation of the monarchy went great (=as well as it could): Spain. The monarch let the country slide from a dictatorship into a constitutional monarchy. One that decided to pull the veil of silence over the crimes of the old regime but still a democracy. So let’s hope the possible return of the Shah follows the Spanish example more than anything else.
I don’t think anyone can predict what will happen in Iran. My gut feeling is that a collapse of the current regime will lead to a fracturing of the country, something like a civil war between moderates and religious fundamentalists. A mix of what happened in Libya post Gaddafi, Iraq post regime change, and Syria post Assad. The overthrow of the mullahs will only be the first step.
bufalo1973@piefed.social 1 day ago
Just a note: in Spain the first 10 years after Franco saw a lot of terrorism, from ETA, BVA, King Christ’s Warriors, GRAPO, Terra Lliure, EPG, AAA, GAL, … and the last ETA bombing was in this century.
plyth@feddit.org 1 day ago
My guess is that it is about establishing this supply line for a war with China and Russia.
en.wikipedia.org/…/Anglo-Soviet_invasion_of_Iran
I can’t imagine that the protests succeed. If they do there would be a power vacuum which should allow for the independence of the Kurdish and Azerbaijani regions and maybe also of smaller regions of other minorities. Contested land, e.g. with Qatar or Iraq could also be taken.
Flax_vert@feddit.uk 1 day ago
I think they should install the monarchy again, then hold free and fair elections to elect a prime minister. Essentially just have a constitutional monarchy.
mrdown@lemmy.world 1 day ago
Why should it be a monarchy ? You know they can decide another democratic system right?
Flax_vert@feddit.uk 1 day ago
The next president they elect can just take over and abolish elections
Corporal_Punishment@feddit.uk 1 day ago
They won’t. There’s no precedent in that region of the world for what you’re suggesting.
It’ll start off with a noble idea but would, at best, end up looking like Russia.
Triumph@fedia.io 1 day ago
Because you can just "do" that.
ultranaut@lemmy.world 1 day ago
Reinstalling the monarchy is almost certainly not happening. If it did I wouldn’t expect the new gov to last, the monarchy lacks the popularity and infrastructure necessary for that to be successful. It’s tough to say what things will look like if the current government falls but some kind of civil war is very likely I think.
theuniqueone@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 day ago
Yep ignore the western media propping up the shah’s son as a potential puppet leader.
A_norny_mousse@feddit.org 1 day ago
I’m ootl. Are they protesting to reinstall monarchy?
mrdown@lemmy.world 1 day ago
I think it is a very small minority who want monarchy back
theuniqueone@lemmy.dbzer0.com 1 day ago
They are not but western media and politicians seem to pushing hard for a post fall government to be run as a “constitutional monarchy” with the shah reinstated as their puppet leader.
ChairmanMeow@programming.dev 1 day ago
Some of them are protesting for it, judging by the pro-shah chants. Not sure how widespread it is though.
HobbitFoot@thelemmy.club 9 hours ago
It seems like a descendent of the Shah is currently involved, but I imagine that the replacement government would likely be a constitutional monarchy or a revised republic.
In either case, I expect transfer of several executive powers to elected bodies including control of the military and police.