Unemployment fears hit worst levels since Covid as tariffs fuel inflation outlook, Fed survey shows

KEY POINTS

• Consumer worries grew over inflation, unemployment and the stock market as the global trade war heated up in March, according to a New York Fed survey.
• The probability that the unemployment rate would be higher a year from now surged to 44%, up 4.6 percentage points and the highest level going back to the early Covid pandemic days of April 2020.
• The expectation that the market will be higher a year from low slid to 33.8%, a decline of 3.2 percentage points to the lowest reading going back to June 2022.