Comment on Battery electric vehicles lose their spark in Europe as hybrids steal the show

• Zorsith@lemmy.blahaj.zone ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  Vimes Boots Theory. Replace “Boots” with “cars”.

  The reason that the rich were so rich, Vimes reasoned, was because they managed to spend less money.

  Take boots, for example. He earned thirty-eight dollars a month plus allowances. A really good pair of leather boots cost fifty dollars. But an affordable pair of boots, which were sort of OK for a season or two and then leaked like hell when the cardboard gave out, cost about ten dollars. Those were the kind of boots Vimes always bought, and wore until the soles were so thin that he could tell where he was in Ankh-Morpork on a foggy night by the feel of the cobbles.

  But the thing was that good boots lasted for years and years. A man who could afford fifty dollars had a pair of boots that’d still be keeping his feet dry in ten years’ time, while the poor man who could only afford cheap boots would have spent a hundred dollars on boots in the same time and would still have wet feet.

  This was the Captain Samuel Vimes ‘Boots’ theory of socioeconomic unfairness.

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• pumpkinseedoil@sh.itjust.works ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

  • Yes, but you have to drive a lot to make up for the price. Dropping from 10€ per 100 km to 5€ per 100 km and slightly less maintenance cost (modern Diesel motors - and by modern I mean the last few decades, given that the motor has been treated well - are pretty carefree already) takes a long while to pay off. If you drive 10.000 km per year that’ll save you 500€ per year + minor maintenance savings, but you pay 10.000+ € more when buying the car. For electric motorcycles it’s even less notable since they need less fuel.

  • Lifespan also is difficult to evaluate. I’m currently using a 25 year old Skoda Octavia and it’s still causing no problems and I still could resell it for 3000-4000€. When driving an EV for 20+ years you’ll very likely have to replace the battery, probably twice (easily 10.000€ with current batteries every time you need a new one).

  • Another point: Resell value. Due to battery degradation and especially very quick technological advancements EVs tend to lose their value quicker than fuel powered vehicles.

  I really want to buy an EV but it just doesn’t make sense yet. Give me an EV that’s not wasting any money on fancy screens, excessively good speakers, … with like 300 km of effective uphill range for a reasonable price and I’m in.

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  • someguy3@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

    Some quick math from this realclearscience.com/…/how_expensive_is_it_to_cha…!

    Puts slow charging at 1/4 the price of gasoline. That’s substantial.

    Other searching says average of 18k km per year in Europe. With 6 l/ 100 km average age 1.76€/ l, gasoline costs €1,901 per year. Vs €475 for electricity. Saving €1,426 a year (1,527 US) Do that for 10 years and that’s €14,260 saved ($15, 270 US). I can only expect that savings will increase as gas prices go up.

    As for maintenance anything with a timing belt is going to have a massive maintenance cost. There’s just no comparison in the design of these things. Electric motors have such a simple design. ICE cars have oil changes, transmission oil changes, coolant changes, spark plugs, starters, 12 v battery, accessory belt, timing belt, alternator. Yes EV’s have a 12v battery and coolant but these are not taxed nearly as much as ice cars.

    EV motors are so simple they’ll handily outlast ice engines. And no transmission either. Boy if you’ve ever had transmission problems you’d never want another, EVs don’t have that. Tesla used to be on about a million mile drivetrain warranty because it really should be feasible. Ice cars can’t ever get that (on average).

    Batteries yeah we’ll see how well new ones last. For a mile miles you’ll go through a few batteries, which get better each time.

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    • pumpkinseedoil@sh.itjust.works ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

      Alright, time to do actual numbers.

      18.000 is heavily influenced by all the people driving >100.000 km per year, unless that’s the median, not the average. I’m far below 10.000 and still waiting for it to be worth it for me. I’ll calculate with 10.000 for now.

      Modern ICE cars need far less than 6l. A modern VW Golf for example only needs 4-5 l per 100 km (4.5 avg, and yes it actually is that low, I’ve been driving a modern VW Golf at the military a few times and have tracked my average fuel consumption there).

      Gas currently fluctuates from 1.525 to 1.599 in my area, so I’m always only filling the car on Monday mornings when it’s 1.525.

      10 000 * 1.525 * 4.5/100 = 686.25€ per year.

      Even if there’s a major crisis like when the war in Ukraine started and the price goes up to 2€ per liter for some time and I’m at 1.8€ average for the year (I have never had such a high average so this is really stretching it), we get 10 000 * 1.8 * 4.5/100 = 810€ per year. Worst case, never happened before scenario.

      Economic modern EV need ~16 kWh per 100 km. The average price per kWh at home is 0.2€ in my area.

      10 000 * 0.2 * 20/100 = 400€ per year.

      = 286.25€ (410€ worst case) per year saved (purely for moving the car), assuming I always charge at home. If I do longer trips on holidays and have to charge somewhere else that gap gets lower.

      Even when adding less taxes, less repairs (but modern engines really don’t need much repairing, even though they’re much more complex than electric motors and wasting more energy) it will still will take a long time to break equal (probably never because I need a new battery before breaking equal).

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      • someguy3@lemmy.ca ⁨4⁩ ⁨months⁩ ago

        You have an incredibly adversarial tone, especially with “actual numbers” as if mine aren’t, so I’m not going to continue.

        But I will point out I’m using averages and you are cherry picking low mileage per year, low fuel consumption, and low gas prices. And funny enough you are combining low mileage per year, with moderately-high battery replacement rate. You are picking and choosing.

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