Comment on xkcd #3214: Electric Vehicles

• exasperation@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨12⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

  Depreciation is a massive slice of the pie in all cars, but EVs are hit even harder.

  I think that’s a quirk of Tesla trying to preserve market share by aggressively cutting prices of their new models over the past 5 years, which naturally puts pressure on all used models on the road. I don’t think that can last.

  If EV manufacturers are racing to compete on price, then the new EVs will get cheaper faster to where EVs are cheaper than ICE vehicles new. And if the EV manufacturers stop cutting prices, then that will alleviate that depreciation pressure.

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  • turboSnail@piefed.europe.pub ⁨3⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    I guess an update is in order. I was thinking of a calculation that is already several years old. I can’t even find it any more, but it had three options: small gasoline powered ICE car, hybrid and a fully electric one. Can’t remember if the latter one was Tesla, Toyota, BMW or something. Anyway, at that time, TCO of a small gasoline powered car was a bit lower that that of a hybrid or a fully electric one.

    The final tipping point will be when the demand for EVs exceeds the demand for other car types. When that happens, depreciation of gasoline cars will increase dramatically, giving EVs a lower TCO. At the moment, charging infrastructure seems to be the bottle neck for a many people, so that’s why we haven’t gone past the tipping point yet. The real bottle neck here is actually the electrical grid, and upgrading that will take many years, if not decades. We could install more charging stations, but that would break the whole grid, so that’s why we have to limit their number in specific parts of the grid.

    The price of a new EV is obviously going to decrease in the future, as every step along the chain ramps up production. Alternative battery chemistries play a role as well, now that LFP cars have finally entered the market. I’m also looking forward to seeing how Na-ion batteries affect the prices, but that’s still going to take a many years. I expect that in about 5-10 years the prices of cheap EVs will be a lot lower than they are today.

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    • exasperation@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨5⁩ ⁨minutes⁩ ago

      The economics are basically always shifting. Real world depreciation and maintenance don’t always follow the model projections, and neither do actual fuel/energy price projections. Electricity service has skyrocketed in a lot of places in recent years, while gasoline prices have remained pretty low, which obviously affects the accuracy of the calculations and modeling that were done 5 years ago. Not to mention, both gasoline and electric energy pricing vary heavily between place.

      And, of course, the ever changing regulatory landscape might affect pricing and resale value, as well.

      Plus the thing with cars is that most people aren’t buying the absolute bare minimum they can afford. People are willing to spend more on things: passenger and cargo space, performance, aesthetics, features/comfort, exterior dimensions that fit their own needs (for example, people who live in a city and want a car that can fit in tiny spaces), etc. For someone who is looking at total cost of ownership of something like mid tier or even luxury model, they should be comparing specific models they’d consider.

      Ultimately, people need to do the calculation for their own specific situations. Someone in the market for a minivan in Detroit is gonna have different considerations than the person looking for a pickup truck in Dallas or a luxury sedan in Los Angeles or an economy car in Honolulu.

      And as things shift, we’ll likely see more people make the decisions that are right for themselves in that particular moment. Including people who want to pay more for something not directly financially beneficial to themselves, whether it’s the driver who wants a manual transmission and the sounds of a revving internal combustion engine, or the person who would rather spend a little bit of extra money to do something more for climate change. Or the person who wants to boycott Elon Musk and will spend a bit more getting another non-Tesla EV.

      At this point, my next car is almost certainly an EV, but I’m not going to prematurely sell my current car to make it happen.

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• surewhynotlem@lemmy.world ⁨1⁩ ⁨day⁩ ago

  TCO is even better for electric. Near zero maintenance. The depreciation is real, but only if you plan to sell it at it’s half life. If you plan to hold it a long time, depreciation evens out.

  My EV is ten years old and cost $30k. It’s paid for itself twice over in just gas. More if I factor in the zero maintenance (not totally zero. I changed the tires a few times and had to replace a trunk component). The resale on it is about $8k lower than an equivalent ICE. But for me, the EV was a good deal.

  I’d definitely recommend getting a used one though. I bought mine new, and that makes the numbers worse.

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  • turboSnail@piefed.europe.pub ⁨18⁩ ⁨hours⁩ ago

    The way I see it, rich people can buy new cars. Everyone else who needs one should consider buying a used one instead. After a few years, depreciation isn’t quite so rapid any more, which makes TCO less of a burden.

    Maintenance expenses do increase as the car ages, but as long as it isn’t like 25 years old, it’s not completely absurd. Currently, I’m looking to buy something that is about 5 years old, and then sell it when it begins to require frequent maintenance. That way, I should be able to avoid the two expensive extremes.

    However, there’s another nasty twist. Cold environment will murder the NMC cells in no time. Not too long ago, I had to leave my car in a cold parking lot for a long time, and when I got back it was about -30 °C. Fortunately, I don’t need to abuse the engine this way any more than maybe twice every year. Oh, boy did it sound unhappy with that cold start, but it managed it anyway. If I had an EV, I would probably need to leave it at home, and take a bus for horribly timed trips like that.

    Let’s say, about 6 times a year, I’ll have badly timed trips, with temperatures hovering around +5…-15 °C: That isn’t a complete disaster for EVs, but it’s still very bad for the cells. Some cars have a built-in heating system for the battery, so I guess that feature would see frequent use. When I’m eventually buying a use EV, having a battery heating system is going to be a completely non-negotiable feature.

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