Comment on Humanity will likely survive climate change, but the vast majority of humans won't.

• SinAdjetivos@lemmy.world ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  It’s important to remember that science is inherently conservative and doubly so for climate change Erring on the Side of Least Drama.

  If you read any of the IPCC reports you’ll note they are very careful to not really provide any death estimates or anything. However, [one can attempt to extrapolate a risk space from those descriptions] (link.springer.com/article/…/s10584-022-03430-y) from that we can analyze key takeaways from the WG2 report ^1^

  The report found that climate impacts are at the high end of previous estimates

  3.3 billion people about 40% of the world population, now fall into the most serious category of “highly vulnerable” ___ 1 billion people face flooding.

  Based on the existential risk model, that’s 3.3 billion currently facing some level of existential risks. If the impacts remain “at the high end of previous estimates”, which they very likely will, then that’s >3.3 Billion potential deaths.

  ^1: using Wikipedia summary because the report is 3675 pages long and ain’t nobody got time for that^

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• basiclemmon98@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨3⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  Let’s try a new game, the burden of proof is on you, as your the one saying we are all somehow being dramatic. So, go fetch us some credited peer reveiwed papers from the past 5 years that say we are being dramatic…

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• Muehe@lemmy.ml ⁨2⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  Kemp et al. 2022 - Climate Endgame: Exploring catastrophic climate change scenarios

  TL;DR: Societal collapse seems possible, more research is needed.

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