Comment on AI Chatbots Remain Overconfident — Even When They’re Wrong: Large Language Models appear to be unaware of their own mistakes, prompting concerns about common uses for AI chatbots.

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FanciestPants@lemmy.world ⁨5⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

I work in risk management, but don’t really have a strong understanding of LLM mechanics. “Confidence” is something that i quantify in my work, but it has different terms that are associated with it. In modeling outcomes, I may say that we have 60% confidence in achieving our budget objectives, while others would express the same result by saying our chances of achieving our budget objective are 60%. Again, I’m not sure if this is what the LLM is doing, but if it is producing a modeled prediction with a CDF of possible outcomes, then representing its result with 100% confindence means that the LLM didn’t model any other possible outcomes other than the answer it is providing, which does seem troubling.

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