So they’re at 27% market share globally (and are the most popular brand globally, though several trail closely). There are over 7 billion smartphone users in the world, so nearly 2 billion iPhone users. There are under 400 million Americans. Meaning if you pick a random iPhone user out of the 2 billion, there’s an 80% chance it’s not an American.
In what universe does “iPhone user, therefore probably American” make sense?
With global market share being 27%.
and the United States being specifically more than 50% and being the largest place that there’s market saturation of that high.
Then you consider that the entirety of the iPhone conversation is in English. You can negate out the largest populist countries that would have iPhone.
Lastly, the context of the conversation is shitty work conditions, so you’re taking a primarily English-speaking country and then, once again, increasing the chances of the United States.
With all of that information and the fact that the United States has a 50 plus percent chance of iPhone usage, which is a higher percentage than any other singular nation’s populace, you get they are likely in the United States of America.
There’s a decent chance it’s in the US. But it’s by no means a safe assumption that someone using an iPhone and writing in English is automatically in the US.
With the other context I agree that it’s 99% likely to be the US. But the iPhone barely plays a role in that. Like I said, most iPhone users don’t live in the US. Most people arguing about 2 weeks notice in English with their boss probably do.
That’s not how probabilities work. The market share in the US is P(has iPhone | resident of US), but we’re looking for P(resident of US | has iPhone), which according to Bayes’ law is equal to the market share in the US (see above) times P(resident of US) [aka US pop. / world pop.] divided by P(has iPhone) [aka global market share]. So essentially, while the market share in the US may be twice as high as the global average, the US has fewer than half of all people in the world - making it more likely that the person is not from the US than that they are.
boonhet@lemm.ee 1 month ago
So they’re at 27% market share globally (and are the most popular brand globally, though several trail closely). There are over 7 billion smartphone users in the world, so nearly 2 billion iPhone users. There are under 400 million Americans. Meaning if you pick a random iPhone user out of the 2 billion, there’s an 80% chance it’s not an American.
In what universe does “iPhone user, therefore probably American” make sense?
TrippyHippyDan@lemmy.world 1 month ago
With global market share being 27%. and the United States being specifically more than 50% and being the largest place that there’s market saturation of that high.
Then you consider that the entirety of the iPhone conversation is in English. You can negate out the largest populist countries that would have iPhone.
Lastly, the context of the conversation is shitty work conditions, so you’re taking a primarily English-speaking country and then, once again, increasing the chances of the United States.
With all of that information and the fact that the United States has a 50 plus percent chance of iPhone usage, which is a higher percentage than any other singular nation’s populace, you get they are likely in the United States of America.
Statistics are fun.
boonhet@lemm.ee 1 month ago
There’s a decent chance it’s in the US. But it’s by no means a safe assumption that someone using an iPhone and writing in English is automatically in the US.
With the other context I agree that it’s 99% likely to be the US. But the iPhone barely plays a role in that. Like I said, most iPhone users don’t live in the US. Most people arguing about 2 weeks notice in English with their boss probably do.
I was just being a bit overly pedantic, is all.
ftbd@feddit.org 1 month ago
That’s not how probabilities work. The market share in the US is P(has iPhone | resident of US), but we’re looking for P(resident of US | has iPhone), which according to Bayes’ law is equal to the market share in the US (see above) times P(resident of US) [aka US pop. / world pop.] divided by P(has iPhone) [aka global market share]. So essentially, while the market share in the US may be twice as high as the global average, the US has fewer than half of all people in the world - making it more likely that the person is not from the US than that they are.
TrippyHippyDan@lemmy.world 1 month ago
You left out the English speaking, the bad work conditions, and everything else. Please reread.