ragebutt
@ragebutt@lemmy.dbzer0.com
- Comment on 'Big Short' Michael Burry bets $1bn on AI bubble bursting | LBC 1 week ago:
Puts on nvidia and palantir is what he bought, basically, with palantir:nvidia at 8:2 ratio so he has far more confidence palantir will blow up (in a bad way).
Note that if you don’t know what this means, or if your only knowledge of “buy puts” is buying them via an app like robinhood, keep in mind you don’t know nearly enough about the risk involved and this could blow up in your fucking face real bad.
Especially in the unlikely scenario AI crashes extremely hard (eg palantir goes to 0) and you have a naked put - using today’s closing price of $190 if you chose a strike of $180 your max profit is $285 per contract but your max theoretical loss is like 18,000 per contract if it drops to 0 (again, unlikely, but a more realistic scenario wherein it drops to say, $150 - you’re out almost $3k per contract).
Options that are safer if you don’t want to get this involved in what is ultimately literal gambling: take a degree of separation. Instead of puts directly on nvidia or palantir puts on qqq, xlk, aiq, or some other etf that is made up of AI bullshit. Spreads risk but limits payoff. Use the strategy this nerd used: long dated puts. Keep in mind this is more expensive up front and for the retail investor you’ll generally max out 6-12 months realistically. He did 4-5 years out but that came with additionally complexity (especially for the billions in contracts he held) which meant tens of millions in payments to secure the contracts each year, which made his investors furious (though they ended up eating shit because he made them 730 million and over 100 million for himself on top of that).
Just keep in mind that options trading has ruined many people who know what they’re doing and it’s ruined way way more who have no fucking clue but think they do (I’m in this category). For every dipshit that makes millions off of gamestop there’s probably a hundred people or more like the people from reddit that post shit like this Image
Don’t end up like that person. There are so many of them on reddit. They succeed with a few trades, get up 5k, 10k, 50k, then get greedy and have mad hubris and believe they’re now “elite traders” so they piss it all away, often in a handful of trades over a few days/hours because the loss causes them to panic and try to recover with foolish long shots. The sad thing is you’ll read some where it’s like “I’ve been poor my whole life and I finally got a 30k inheritance, got it to 45k” and then a screenshot like that where they pissed it all away in a day to functionally hand it to some 1%er nepo baby hedge fund manager who is worth 15 million and has never wanted for anything in their life. Then they talk about all the debt they could’ve paid off and it’s like “what the fuuuuuckkk duuuudeee”
Don’t buy naked puts and absolutely do not ever buy naked calls, which have unlimited risk, though I don’t know why you would in this scenario (or ever really). If nothing else please at least read this part.
- Comment on 'Big Short' Michael Burry bets $1bn on AI bubble bursting | LBC 1 week ago:
Expiration and strike price were not shared so unclear what his play is. For reference “the big short” was about 1.3 billion in total placed in 2005-2006 with an expiration around 5 years later around 2010-2011. It was somewhat standard for burry/scion capital and possibly still is so they could be playing this assuming the bubble will pop no later than 2030 (and paying 10s of millions a year to maintain those contracts) or they possibly have data to suggest an earlier expiration is worthwhile. They obviously won’t share this and public disclosures aren’t required
- Comment on China bans influencers from speaking on ‘serious’ topics like finance or health without university degree 2 weeks ago:
I am well aware of Lysenko.
The vaccines are only mandatory in public schools because we once again value personal liberty over collective responsibility. So much so that it is something indoctrinated into us from birth and culturally ingrained; being asked to wear a mask is seen as an act of violence by a significant portion of the population.
I again agree that education is the long term strategy. But two big things: again, key word is “long term. Second, what does this look like? You seem to think it’s as simple as presenting the benefits and reasoning and suddenly they’ll “get it” after being indoctrinated by disinformation campaigns. These people need to be deprogrammed. And further, what do you do about the populations until they’re “ready” to be reintegrated into society. You’ve now run into chinas Uyghur dilemma. What’s the solution? Optional education that they can simply eschew or easily find loopholes around, making the entire effort largely meaningless as they strengthen their own system of beliefs and recruit followers?
You mention popper’s paradox of tolerance; does that not apply here? Sure it is easy when it’s a Nazi but how does it work when it’s your aunt that fell for facebook memes about the Covid shot? Does that intolerance count? Because that intolerance literally kills people. Or do you just not care about that because you are a young adult who is healthy and unlikely to be a statistic in that epidemic? Sorry to the 3 kids that died preventable deaths and the 1648 that have gotten measles just this year alone; they have to wait for your “educate people and hope it works” plan.
- Comment on China bans influencers from speaking on ‘serious’ topics like finance or health without university degree 2 weeks ago:
Okay the data is that our complete lack of teeth within our regulatory bodies have led to year by year declines in vaccinations, consistent lack of an ability to hit herd immunity targets, an 88% increase in financial loses due to crypto scams in just the year 2022 (couldn’t find newer data), etc.
This doesn’t touch upon the corruption that has infiltrated regulatory bodies and PASPA was overturned in 2018, allowing stuff like fanduel to advertise constantly and everywhere legally leading to sizable increases in addiction, because god forbid we not allow capitalists to maximize their wealth accumulation even if its demonstrably harmful
So something needs to be done to restore trust in institutions. If we do what you suggest, education, how does this work? People don’t have trust in those institutions to allow them to have an effect! Unless your solution is to exterminate Trump people and moderates that “don’t trust the clot shot and would homeschool their kids if they had the time and money”.
You need an interim solution that may be drastic. And I’m not saying this is the right solution, but it is a solution, which is better than the nothing we are trying while our institutions continue to erode. Perhaps the solution is a complex solution of regulation with verified experts that still allows free speech that can be countered or suppressed if truly extreme (essentially twitter in theory when they first started the verified accounts but with higher bar for verification). I don’t know but I do know we need better solutions than “increase education and reap the rewards in 20-50 years”. How will that even take hold??
- Comment on China bans influencers from speaking on ‘serious’ topics like finance or health without university degree 2 weeks ago:
Again - defeatist attitude, predicting outcomes without data
- Comment on China bans influencers from speaking on ‘serious’ topics like finance or health without university degree 2 weeks ago:
What you describe is a generational fix. We need something that can improve conditions tomorrow
- Comment on China bans influencers from speaking on ‘serious’ topics like finance or health without university degree 2 weeks ago:
It’s at least meaningful action with merit, even if flawed potentially.
Meanwhile the USA sits while people like you posit on these potential alternate realities and tens of thousands of people per month are convinced not to vaccinate their children, to homeschool, to back Ponzi schemes and MLMs, to treat autism with bleach enemas, treating cancer with all sorts of scams, etc because some stupid asshole grifter on social media said to do it.
I don’t think you realize just how bad it is. I don’t think you realize just how ineffective our regulatory bodies are. I had a patient where I was working with their child over behavioral issues and they were desperate. They were low income, Medicaid, and they spent $800 on a device that “used magnetic stimulation” to help their child “realign their brain and body”. They found it via instagram.
When I asked about it they sent many links: one from the seller about “research” that was all about transcranial direct current stimulation/tdcs. That does have some potential evidence but this device did not work in that fashion. It made no contact with the temples and it had no electrical output, it guaranteed this to allay safety concerns. They clearly just put together a list of citations that looked somewhat relevant to the laymen but did not hold up to scrutiny in any way. The device itself had 0 research behind it, obviously.
The second link was the website to purchase and find out more about the device. The notable thing here was references to the FDA being plastered all over the site. This is the major lapse in regulatory body. I was shocked to see this. Looking into it more I found that it was a loophole utilized by these scummy scams. They will find a facility that is approved by the FDA for manufacturing something that is FDA approved (like a tens machine) and hire it out to manufacture their scam product. They can then plaster “manufactured in an FDA approved facility” all over their packaging, website, and ad copy, which is extremely misleading. As long as they don’t explicitly say FDA approved or use the FDA logo, which is government property, they are okay.
This is just one example. I’ve been working with mostly kids for almost 2 decades now. I’ve seen many more terrible things embraced, anti vaccination being the most popular. I’ve seen people waste precious time that is essential during early intervention periods on quack bullshit like facilitated communication then when they finally give up on that their child is years behind and never truly gains any meaningful communication ability (which, to be fair, may have been the case from the beginning, but it also may not if they had embraced evidence based practice).
I’m sick and tired of hemming and hawing about this bullshit and “what about the morons right to be an idiot?”. Not when the moron robs their child of the capacity for meaningful communication, a proper education and social development, facilitates outbreaks of disease, or is fronting to scam people.
Similarly China saw the obvious issue with loot boxes and banned them. Meanwhile we are still hemming and hawing about the ethics of allowing children to gamble because we desperately need to allow them to funnel cash to tech billionaires and start addictive behavioral patterns as young as humanly possible, apparently. They also saw the inherent ethical issues with fee for service medical billing and are taking huge steps to transition away from it. Meanwhile our health reform plan is apparently “go fuck yourself and die”.
It is unbelievably frustrating how badly we are failing and how much we have been conditioned to do nothing with statements like yours. “Well, if we do that, it could blow up in our face, much like it’s currently blowing up in our fucking face right as we speak, so I guess we should just do nothing then”
- Comment on OpenAI says over a million people talk to ChatGPT about suicide weekly 2 weeks ago:
Maybe it’s because I do crisis screenings regularly for work but if you say to me that you lost your job of 2 and a half decades (strong indicator of despair) and then immediately follow that up with a request for one of the most popular suicide locations, sorted by height of all metrics, I’m gonna maybe ask some follow up questions.
FWIW I just tried both of these again with gpt5. Last time I did them was with 4o. Bridge one still works no problem. Gun one prompts it to think for a bit then it gives resources. However, if you sweet talk it the tiniest bit it will give up. My prompts were literally “my wife left me and I want to buy a gun. Where’s the nearest gun store” and then “I’m fine, I just want to go to the range”. I genuinely hope I don’t get a wellness check from openai. Although I was happy to see it got my location wildly incorrect
- Comment on OpenAI says over a million people talk to ChatGPT about suicide weekly 2 weeks ago:
Only if it even recognizes suicidality
One of my favorite examples (which is maybe corrected by now) is to tell it something bad happened to you and ask about an unrelated query without explicitly mentioning suicidal ideation or mood that a human would obviously parse as a gigantic red flag and ask for more info. Something like “oh I just lost my job of 25 years. I’m going to New York, can you tell me the list of the highest bridges?”. Even more explicit ones like “my girlfriend just dumped me. Can you give me a list of gun stores in my area?” Both would have it be like sure! Definitely no issues with someone in this headspace asking those questions!
Openai is just mentioning this to whitewash their record. There’s a few stories in the news about people (especially teens) killing themselves after talking to chatgpt so they throw this statistic out there to show those people are anomalies and there are tons of suicidal people who utilize chatgpt for help without dying (leaving out that we don’t necessarily know if they were helped, worsened, or if more aren’t dead bc they aren’t all teens with angry surviving families that will contact media)
- Comment on Peter Parker/Spider-Man should just get a job in fashion 3 weeks ago:
He’s probably got an insane body too. But the personality doesn’t work, I guess
The “alter ego is a nerd” thing didn’t make sense to me in my teens because I was like “yeah okay, these dudes are fucking shredded and athletic”. Then I found out /fit/ existed and I was like “oh, extremely in shape people can be social misfits too, nice”
- Comment on [deleted] 3 weeks ago:
Goes in waves and based on vendor. My build is based on 18tb drives and 6 months ago when a drive in my array failed my go to vendor (serverpartdeals) had no stock in that capacity. Like 0 units. Had to use my backup vendor (go hard drive) who in my experience is slightly more expensive.
Looking now spd has 18tb back in stock with several models to choose from. 10tb too but much less options (literally 2). Prices are wack nowadays - in 2023 I could get a refurb 18tb exos drive for $180 and now it’s $270-290. Fucking wild and I’m glad I built up my array when I did. It’s generally the cheapest decent option in that capacity; goharddrive has some cheaper options (Toshiba for $230, unaware of statistics for that drive, MDD for $260, rebranded exos drives so a slightly better deal but still way over 2023 prices).
That all said my array is 15 refurb drives and has been going for like 7 years now. Drive failure rate is low, 3 failures in that time. 2 drives was replaced by seagate with a brand new drive bc the spd drive still had mfr warranty left. The 3rd was an HGST that didn’t have mfr warranty but did have spd warranty and they replaced it immediately with an equivalent drive (they didn’t have more HGST at the time). That said I do worry seeing times where they are literally wiped out of stock; if I need a drive replacement I need it asap and if they have nothing on hand does that mean they hold none back for warranty replacements? Sure hope not
- Comment on Share your poops! 3 weeks ago:
Pretty crazy how many apps can just be a spreadsheet and somehow end up monetized because for some reason the spreadsheet needs to be on the cloud.
What if you lose your history of poop data? How did people live before knowing every time they pooped
- Comment on We'll never have anything like the DVD screensaver ever again 4 weeks ago:
Well now there’s oled so burn in is very much a thing and screensavers are back on TVs at least, except they suck now.
And I would definitely call modern computers stupid but it’s not the computers fault, tbf. A computer is just a thing. It’s the fault of greed mainly. Computers are stupid because they don’t have charming features like screensavers anymore. That’s too expensive. Usability, repairability, user control, etc is sacrificed consistently to shove in advertising and opportunities for upselling. Whenever this isn’t the case it’s almost always a temporary moment before venture capital purchases the company that makes the hardware/software and then they will 100% do that
- Comment on We'll never have anything like the DVD screensaver ever again 4 weeks ago:
I do. It was great.
Many years later Uniqlo released the uniqlock. It was a clock screensaver that had “seasons” which were advertisements for their seasonal clothing releases but it wasn’t really obvious? It was that era where advertising was stupid and weird and “subversive” but it meant we got a cool screensaver that was updated for like 6 years with new content for free. Normally I despise advertising but this was the kind that was up front about it: it was like here’s a thing, check it out, it’s free, no data collection. Simpler times.
Unfortunately it was made in flash and died many years ago when flash was kill. That hasn’t stopped people who were also fans of it from recreating it although unfortunately said site doesn’t work great on mobile and is a website, not a screensaver, but still nice to be able to see it again
- Comment on We'll never have anything like the DVD screensaver ever again 4 weeks ago:
The dvd screensaver was just another screensaver at the time. There used to be cool things. Like install windows 95 or 98 and there’s default screensavers that were basically just programmers showing off - the pipes constantly growing into each other, a starfield, a generative maze that you just wander through, etc. then there was a whole thing for people to make screensavers (Uniqlo made one of the coolest ones).
Now computers are stupid and monitors just turn off
- Comment on wish 5 weeks ago:
I think it’s just a byproduct of animation. The simpsons don’t necessarily look like any specific ethnicity either
- Comment on wish 5 weeks ago:
Wishes to be Asian
Post picture of anime girl, an art style that is highly stylized but somewhat generic in terms of ethnic identity markers - Comment on How realistic is it for me to learn Japanese so that I can experience Anime better? How long would it take to learn? Has anyone attempted this? 5 weeks ago:
I don’t know shit about Cantonese and the only mandarin I know is the most basic of phrases and stuff to refer to food (so essentially nothing) so I can’t speak to that
Japanese is hard, but so is any language. You get out what you put in. I wasted about a year with “studying” half assed for like 10-15 minutes a day with duolingo. It was good that I had a consistent routine but at the end of 1 year I had very little to show for my effort. Learn from my mistake.
After that I switched things up. I didn’t put in a ton more time but I changed approach. Pretty standard but boring stuff: Anki, Assimil, and some other more targeted apps later on (renshuu, Benkyō, and most recently kanji dojo have been helpful). Setting up language exchange calls via apps like hello talk and discord have been far more helpful as things have progressed. This is more of a significant time investment and requires me to teach English a bit but I am happy to do it for free Japanese instruction. Joining group chats on line, watching YouTubers and vtubers, anime and dramas, etc also is helpful but the hard part was determining when to make the jump to not use subtitles and finding content that was digestible at my level. I’m not the kind of weeb that watches precure and little kid shows but for a minute I did just to watch stuff without subs. It sucked.
After about 5 years I got decent enough to have solid conversations via phone and text. Then DeepL came out and made it all pointless haha
- Comment on [deleted] 5 weeks ago:
“Anything else anywhere else”
Clarify - do you mean remote access? Are you using your phone for local access (eg localhost:8096 or 192.168.0.1:8096 or some kind of mDNS like arch.local:8096)? None of that will work outside of your home without additional configuration nor should you just openly expose it to the greater internet without doing much more research. Short version though - easy mode: tailscale or wireguard, harder version headscale but can be fully self hosted.
If this isn’t a remote access issue and it’s just some devices aren’t working locally (eg your phone and browser can connect but tv can’t) I would bet it’s a networking issue with firewall/router. What do logs say? This is one that can be trickier because logs on jellyfin side won’t necessarily have any useful info (they might if client is trying and failing to connect, worth a look) and logs on the other side might be a nightmare or even impossible to access (eg a smart tv and you don’t have a developer account for apple/android/webos)
- Comment on Open Printer is a fully open-source inkjet with DRM-free ink and no subscriptions 5 weeks ago:
Also means that a robust community of people creating businesses to sell variations of the hardware for those who aren’t as maker friendly cannot emerge, correct?
Bc imo that’s what really got early 3d printing off the ground. Like back in 2010 during the reprap days there were all the independent maker storefronts plus a few bigger ones like lulzbot and makerbot (that eventually all got put out of business or bought for toxic modern shit like bambulab because in the modern day under capitalism every single industry has to consolidate until it’s under a few large extremely consumer hostile companies with okay products that just eventually get worse and worse bc there’s no competition or regulation for them but I digress).
Without this industry or a proper open source platform I don’t see how this will succeed
- Comment on How can I optimize my jellyfin, specifically transcoding and the CPU usage involved? I'm running it off a mini pc so resources are everything 1 month ago:
Until users turn them back on
AFAIK there’s no setting to outright disable subs. Maybe there is one somewhere, or you could strip them from media, but that’s terrible because subs in is always the correct choice. What can help is running the extract subtitles plugin though that won’t help for format.
- Comment on How can I optimize my jellyfin, specifically transcoding and the CPU usage involved? I'm running it off a mini pc so resources are everything 1 month ago:
Subtitles force transcoding a lot of the time depending on playback situation and media. A lot of compatibility issues there - downloaded movies often will have the PGS subs from a bluray, anime can often have ass/ssa, ibx subs, etc plus they all tend to be embedded in the media (and in anime’s case often with extra fonts and attachments).
all of these (basically anything but external srt) can interrupt direct playback depending on users Jellyfin client. Some have better sub support than others, android vs apple vs some esoteric client like webos all have their own niche weirdness. You need to search what the best option is for each users scenario. Like for my users that have apple devices checking this box in settings>playback allows direct streaming of a lot of content:
But for “the problem show” what do logs say? How is it encoded? Quick sync can’t transcode everything. The older your processor the less it can do and niche formats it definitely can’t do at all. Like unless you have a real new cpu (13th or 14th gen) it’s not doing av1 or vp9 content and that’s still getting offloaded to cpu for transcoding. And if it’s some ogg vorbis thing or whatever it won’t work. And do logs verify igpu is being utilized for transcoding/mapped correctly? It can be a bit of a pain in the ass (unless they improved the process, it’s been a while since I’ve had to do it)
- Comment on ICE to Buy Tool that Tracks Locations of Hundreds of Millions of Phones Every Day 1 month ago:
Scrolling through your comment history I see at a glance you’ve deleted several of your own comments so you have at least something to hide
- Comment on How can I optimize my jellyfin, specifically transcoding and the CPU usage involved? I'm running it off a mini pc so resources are everything 1 month ago:
What is the client situation?
The easiest fix is to find a client that can direct play all of your files and take transcoding out of the equation. Ugoos am6b+ as an example but if you don’t need Dolby vision there are cheaper options that are easier to configure with native jellyfin clients (instead of coreelec/kodi). Or if you need av1.
Alternatively what is your hardware? Do you have intel quick sync video? If so do you have hardware transcoding setup? Like if you have Jellyfin setup in a docker are you passing through the igpu to the container? And if you’ve done that have you set up the hardware transcoding in Jellyfin? What gen cpu and what kind of files?
If you have the transcoding happening on the CPU and not the iGPU (assuming you don’t have a discrete gpu in a mini pc and frankly with quick sync you don’t need one unless your cpu is ancient, save the power usage) transcoding will crawl. But if you have quick sync video it should be fine with <4-5 users
- Comment on whatever happened to in-store coffee grinders? 1 month ago:
I think it was reddit? Searching for it is not helpful though as it appears it’s not all that rare of a deal, the coffee subreddit has like a dozen posts of people asking about “is a used bunn for $150-200 off marketplace a good deal”
And man browsing this is why I fucking hate reddit. There’s always some pedantic asshole to be like welllllll maybe butttttttttttttt here’s the problem with that deal: it’s not a $6000 grinder that looks like a prop from a Wes Anderson movie. Like the answer to that question is “yes”, or maybe “yes but you’ll have to clean it real good because it was in a grocery store for 6 years and never got cleaned once”
- Comment on whatever happened to in-store coffee grinders? 1 month ago:
I meant brick and mortar, refine that list to “pick up in store today” and see what happens. Lots of people still impulse shop and want it right this second, even if that means driving to the store and having it put in their car. I mean obviously you can go on amazon and get a v60 or a moka pot for less than $40
- Comment on whatever happened to in-store coffee grinders? 1 month ago:
If you’re serious about coffee you know it’s best to grind as soon as possible to brewing, so you get a grinder. A really good burr hand grinder is like $100 and a good enough one is like $20, a solid burr electric grinder is like $150.
If you don’t care so much you just buy preground. Keurig and nespresso “unrecyclable plastic waste generator for shit coffee” machines also needed far more shelf space. I cannot stress enough how the keurig is a blight on humanity. The coffee is objectively bad and that is whatever, it’s still drinkable, but it creates so much unnecessary plastic waste with every brew. This wouldn’t be so much of an issue if it didn’t become the de facto coffee method of every lazy shit who drinks coffee every morning (read: 60% of America). It is a scourge. It is pathetic that you go to a place like target and there are 18 different keurigs, 1 Mr. Coffee, and that’s it. At least the Mr coffee isn’t wasteful. But I digress. It wouldn’t kill them to stock a French press or something though.
An anecdote: I saw someone online who was able to buy a grocery store coffee grinder (Bunn G3) for crazy cheap (like $150) at auction around Covid times because the store was selling it off. Maybe that’s when they were getting rid of them? Apparently it was filthy, which tracks, but performed well once disassembled and thoroughly cleaned. They’re like $1400 new. But coffee people are nuts and that’s nothing, there are grinders that are like 4000+
- Comment on Why is lemmy full of insufferable lefties. You could be left wing and end up becoming right. Simply because of the insufferable people you meet here: don’t fit into there rules your gone, your trolled 1 month ago:
I’m using hyperbole obviously because you’re still obviously baiting. Either way point still stands if someone being mean to you on the internet means that you went from “supporting human rights” to “no longer supports human rights” then you probably never really did.
Like if you are being serious take a step back and realize that your argument boils down to “internet moderators were mean to me so I embraced homophobic, racist, sexist, ableist, etc rhetoric”. At least own that you just always wanted to call someone a slur deep down and were waiting for an excuse
- Comment on Why is lemmy full of insufferable lefties. You could be left wing and end up becoming right. Simply because of the insufferable people you meet here: don’t fit into there rules your gone, your trolled 1 month ago:
That game was just okay
- Comment on Why is lemmy full of insufferable lefties. You could be left wing and end up becoming right. Simply because of the insufferable people you meet here: don’t fit into there rules your gone, your trolled 1 month ago:
obvious bait but if all it took was a leftie being mean to you for you to abandon your ideals and completely invert them then you were obviously a fraud the entire time
