This graph claims to be based on IEA numbers. Let’s say that’s true and the numbers used are correct.
Then this graph says:
- oil use will remain more or less stable
- natural gas use will increase
- coal use will half
- nuclear capacity will double
- solar will multiply about 9-fold
- wind will increase about 5-fold
- the rest will stay more or less static
Keep in mind that energy usage across the board is increasing daily. And this graph assumes that to be and remain true up to 2050. So this is NOT a degrowth scenario, nor even a no-growth or static scenario. Visual Capitalist, indeed.
Given those assumptions, it makes sense that even significant growth in solar and wind will not dent their share of the total that much. For solar to equal oil in this scenario it would have to increase almost 21-fold against the end-of-2024 graph baseline, and to replace all fossils it would have to grow about 50-fold. Wind would need to grow with it, because solar and wind need to more or less go together. If we stick to the ratios of this graph, then wind would need to grow about 25-fold.
It’s clear that the authors of the IEA report are firm believers in ‘business as usual’. Kiss your climate goals goodbye. And your big coastal cities.
Diplomjodler3@lemmy.world 6 days ago
Wind and solar have been growing exponentially in recent years but this assumes they’ll be pretty much static. File that one under disinformation.
Sharkticon@lemmy.zip 6 days ago
It’s hardly static if solar and wind goes from 9 exajoules to 79 and 9 to 40 respectively. However the second half does seem a little too predictable I agree.
nublug@piefed.blahaj.zone 6 days ago
‘visual capitalist’
lolyeah