Why I Think the AI Bubble Will Not Burst

Comments

• MysticKetchup@lemmy.world ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  1. This is way too brief and lacks any actual evidence for its argument
  2. It doesn’t touch on the main argument of AI bubble forecasters: that AI costs a massive amount of money to develop and run but does not make nearly enough money to recoup that investment. And people don’t seem to be interested enough in AI to actually pay for it, especially given that the actual price will be very high

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  • MagicShel@lemmy.zip ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    I pay for it. One of the services I pay is about $25/mo and they release about one update a year or so. It’s not cutting edge, just specialized. And they are making a profit doing a bit of tech investment and running the service, apparently. But also they are just tuning and packaging a publicly available model, not creating their own.

    What can’t be sustained is this sprint to AGI or to always stay at the head of the pack. It’s too much investment for tiny gains that ultimately don’t move the needle a lot. I guess if the companies all destroy one another until only one remains, or someone really does attain AGI, they will realize gains. I’m not sure I see that working out, though.

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    • setsubyou@lemmy.world ⁨5⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      But also they are just tuning and packaging a publicly available model, not creating their own.

      So they can be profitable because the cost of creating that model isn’t factored in, and if people stop throwing money at LLMs and stop releasing models for free, there goes their business model. So this is not really sustainable either.

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• artyom@piefed.social ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  After spinning up some LLMs and image generating tools, I realized the hardware consumes a lot of electricity, and even 12GB VRAM sometimes wasn’t enough. On top of that, these AI programs also use a lot of system RAM. Now imagine being a big company like OpenAI or Grok with millions of users. How much GPU power and electricity would it take to keep their service running? That’s why these companies are seeking lots of investment.

  Not a bubble because: it actually uses the amount of energy they claim? No one thinks they’re lying about that.

  these AI investors know what they’re doing

  LOOOOLOLOL. I think there are some initial investors who, in the beginning, legitimately thought it would be a good deal. At this point, the investments are driven by hype, and investors know they are, but they’re gambling that they can ride it to the top without being caught holding the bag. That’s why it will collapse violently. Because the moment it starts going down, everyone is going to dump it.

  Of course, AI-generated content is polluting the internet like never before. But the problem is that you still like or share these AI slop, making them go viral.

  Okay so we’re now: changing the topic entirely, while blaming users for the poisoning of the information database that is the internet.

  So it’s a 2 paragraph blog post that doesn’t even address it’s own title.

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  • squaresinger@lemmy.world ⁨5⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    LOOOOLOLOL. I think there are some initial investors who, in the beginning, legitimately thought it would be a good deal. At this point, the investments are driven by hype, and investors know they are, but they’re gambling that they can ride it to the top without being caught holding the bag. That’s why it will collapse violently. Because the moment it starts going down, everyone is going to dump it.

    This is it. Bubbles happen BECAUSE investors know what they are doing. They ride the bubble hard, hoping to get out just before it pops. The later you jump, the more you gain. Unless you jump too late.

    All this, including the popping of the bubble, is done on purpose.

    High-level capitalism is certainly the place where you should never mistake mallice with incompetence.

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• db0@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨5⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  Unlike the dot-com bubble era, where regular people invested in many shady companies that essentially robbed them, these AI investors know what they’re doing. I’m not seeing any kind of deception here.

  Lol. Lmao even

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• ag10n@lemmy.world ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  these companies know what they’re doing

  AGI is right around the corner

  Shouldn’t be surprised that anime profile pic couldn’t believe they’re being lied to on the internet.

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  • tomalley8342@lemmy.world ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

    Why is it not surprising? Are people with anime profile pics more gullible or ignorant than the average person?

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    • ag10n@lemmy.world ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

      knowyourmeme.com/memes/anime-profile-pictures

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• glog78@digitalcourage.social ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  @columbus the dot.com bubble bursted but some tech stayed. So it will be the same with AI ( even more precise different Machine Learning Stuff ). This has been around before the hype and there will be things after the hype.

  https://datacentremagazine.com/news/ibm-ceo-questions-trillions-in-data-centre-spending

  ^^^ but this should make clear that the current way will most likely end in a big crash for capital IMHO.

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• shads@lemy.lol ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  Hard disagree, at some point investors are going to start asking these AI companies when they will be done burning cash and when the profits will start rolling in. Arguably OpenAI is already starting to see these concerns. If the US gets a new government at some stage there might be enough political will to draw a line in the sand with NVidia and tell them to stop manipulating markets. Finally there may be some pushback against datacenters literally killing the areas they are built in. What we are seeing is a fraud against the world originating from a group of hyper rich arseholes that may last a surprisingly long time, but eventually they will need to pay the piper.

  I did have someone tell me this has all the hallmarks of the space race. We are going to see enormous amounts of efforts and resources thrown into AI only for these pioneers to realise there is no clear way to monetise at which point all that energy will be redirected, until then China keeps on egging the US on to make them increasingly commit more and more of their economy to a concept that is going to be a lead anchor on the country left holding the bag.

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• 51dusty@lemmy.world ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  when people start using the “don’t question them; they know what they’re doing” argument…I become even more suspicious. If they knew what they were doing the results would be apparent and spectacular to everyone; no one would question it…

  the fact that trickery and forced adoption are required for the technology to succeed is very telling about the competence of the technology itself.

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• Deestan@lemmy.world ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  An economic bubble isn’t when something is fake and ceases to exist when the bubble bursts.

  We use the term when the market is inflated way beyond its value.

  A bubble bursting is when people realize the market is inflated way beyond its value and pull out, leaving debt-ridden companies to their debt.

  Some go bankrupt, stock prices fall, economy news outlets insist nobody could have predicted this, investments go elsewhere, people are laid off, and the people responsible fail upward to another grift.

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• Grandwolf319@sh.itjust.works ⁨6⁩ ⁨days⁩ ago

  You see rage-bait and get angry; then you see a cute cat video and forget about it. This is how social media’s AI controls your thoughts and emotions, and nobody has ever truly rebelled against this digital drug. So I think AI slops are here to stay.

  Oh, so it’s here to stay like a terminal disease, well that got bleak

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