Comment on CEO Asks ChatGPT How to Void $250 Million Contract, Ignores His Lawyers, Loses Terribly in Court
Modern_medicine_isnt@lemmy.world 2 days agoLuck is a factor, but the differentiator is that they have the. Isplaced confidence and drive to just do what they want first. Then the luck let’s them get away with it. It’s kind of like if you get a million people to flip a coin 50 times. Some of them will get all 50 to be heads. So with billions of people in the world. Some have this drive to be on top, misplaced confidence, luck, and situational oportunities (also a good part luck) to end up able to sign 250 million dollar contract. None of that actually requires they have a clue. Sometimes they do, but it isn’t required.
if you get a million people to flip a coin 50 times. Some of them will get all 50 to be heads.
Flipping a coin 50 times has 1.1 quadrillion possible outcomes, only 2 of which are all heads or all tails. I think you’d need more than a few billion to reliably see those results.
I think though, you get the point.
Now here is a bonus question for you. If I give you a coin and ask you to flip it 20 times, and they all come up heads. What are the odds that if you flip it again it will come up heads?
I think it’s higher than a 50% chance of heads, because you have evidence for it being an unfair coin.
Nice that is in fact what I was going to say. I get a lot of people with that joke.
yeah that’s over a one in a billion chance to get all heads in just a million tries.
jj4211@lemmy.world 2 days ago
And no one remembers the failures, except maybe their family with that wacky Uncle that had some crazy get rich quick scheme. In some other timeline, some kids think of their crazy uncle Mark Zuckerberg who dropped out of college because he thought he could do better than MySpace, and now he bounces around chasing various hustles that keep failing.