Comment on Millions worth of prediction market bets placed on US airstrikes on Iran

chicken@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago

• BarneyPiccolo@lemmy.today ⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago

  Leaked? They’ve been loudly threatening to do it for the last few weeks, and moved every piece of materiel and manpower to the region. It wasn’t exactly a wild guess.

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  • chicken@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨1⁩ ⁨week⁩ ago

    The article is insinuating that inside information was used to make money on the specific date:

    Now there are suspicions that other insiders used the Iran strikes to get rich. Six accounts on Polymarket reportedly won approximately $1.2 million by predicting the U.S. would launch a strike on Iran on February 28, according to CoinDesk.

    The other example is more convincing though:

    When the U.S. captured Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro in January, an individual with a relatively new account pumped $30,000 into a bet that Maduro would be ousted. Hours later, the Trump administration captured Maduro, earning the gambler more than $436,000.

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