We really need to work out the implications of the fact that Moore’s Law is dead, and technology doesn’t necessarily advance on a exponential path like that, anyway.

The cost per component of an integrated circuit (the original formulation of Moore’s Law) is not going down much at all. We’re orders of magnitude away from that. Nodes are creating smaller components, but they’re not getting cheaper. The fact that it took decades to get to this point is impressive, but it was already an exception in all of human history. Why can’t we just be happy that computers we already have are pretty damned neat?

Anyway, AI is not following anything like that path. This might mean a big breakthrough tomorrow, or it could be decades from now. It might even turn out not to be possible; I think there is some way we can do AGI on computers of some kind, but that’s not even the consensus among computer scientists. In any case, there’s no particular reason to think LLMs will follow anything like the exponential growth path of Moore’s Law. They seem to have hit a point of diminishing returns.