Comment on Humanity will likely survive climate change, but the vast majority of humans won't.

• null_dot@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

  I guess it’s subjective.

  Sure, climate change is starting to have an impact and more people might die due to malnutrition which is related.

  My predictions within 5 years are something like :

  • intensifying weather events like floods, storms, cyclones / hurricanes, to a point where insurance becomes a real unavoidable problem, putting trillions of dollars of real estate at risk.
  • intensifying weather events like droughts where some traditionally viable agricultural areas no longer are, maybe a 10% reduction of arable land in any given region.
  • localised famine events generating a few hundred thousand climate change refugees per year.
  • increasing commercial interest in arable land in regions less likely to be impacted, farm values doubling in some areas
  • increasing political interest in arable land in these same regions, with escalating political tension

  I think societal collapse is still a decade away at least. However, the poor and impoverished are certainly going to start to feel the burn.

  On the one hand I have a left leaning progressive mind set and have with young children - I’m heavily motivated to try to change our trajectory. On the other hand I’m 43 years old and I don’t remember a period where people weren’t predicting societal collapse in 5 years.

  Climate change is bad. Mass extinctions, severe weather events, and famine, are all a certainty in the coming years. However, this needs to be balanced by technological advancements that are going to mitigate the effects. Just as an example, we can produce more food from less land than ever in history.

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  • Cricket@lemmy.zip ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

    I pretty much agree with most of your assessment. Thank you for mentioning insurance and real estate, as that will particularly impact countries like the US, where the two have been in a feedback loop, greatly inflating home prices.

    I just worry that any technological advances will only be used to either directly help people at the top or to make them richer in the process of helping those below. That has been increasingly the trend over the decades.

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    • null_dot@lemmy.dbzer0.com ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

      Yeah, you’re right in that wealthy people are heavily motivated to capture the value provided by new technologies.

      However, I don’t think that’s always the case.

      Roof top solar is one example. Really high rates of adoption here in Australia. The cost of the equipment has reduced dramatically and it’s a bit silly not to install at this point. It’s good for the planet and it reduces costs for individuals and families of all kinds.

      Food production is another one. Yes a lot of farms are owned by large corporations, but a lot of farms are also family operations. If they make more food they make more money and secondary industries can charge farmers more money. In my area this agricultural production is the primary industry and although there might be $100k people in my city almost all employment is in supporting industries, whether that’s maintaining equipment, transporting goods, financial services, et cetera. While there’s always some concentration of wealth it doesn’t seam particularly problematic for the moment.

      I don’t really know anything about this but it’s possible that in the future you’ll be able to make synthetic meats at home in a bioreactor.

      I guess I’m just saying that while I agree the implications of climate change are bleak, emerging technologies might mitigate the impact on human-kind to some extent.

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      • Cricket@lemmy.zip ⁨3⁩ ⁨weeks⁩ ago

        I get what you mean. You seem to have an optimistic view that technology will help us out of this mess eventually (or at least soften its impact). I guess in some ways I’m a pessimist, but I can respect your view and accept that your scenario is also a possible outcome. I happen to think it’s less likely than what the outcome I imagine, but it is possible. My uncle has always had a similar view as yours.

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