We had some nice steady growth up until some months back, probably partially driven by dissatisfaction with Reddit rallying behind Trump and further enshittification of it. But predictably the lions share of users just accepted the new normal as the inertia of leaving is just too high to overcome. For another exodus event there needs to be a bigger shock to the system, probably something like turning off old.reddit.
Comment on Is the Fediverse stalling?
rglullis@communick.news 3 weeks ago
Yeah, both. It’s flatlining globally and down in the UK.
Coelacanth@aggregatet.org 3 weeks ago
Blaze@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 weeks ago
something like turning off old.reddit.
One day…
Coelacanth@aggregatet.org 3 weeks ago
It definitely will happen. I’ve already noticed I’m sometimes getting weird “your IP is blocked” warnings when using old.reddit. They go away after a refresh but it wouldn’t surprise me if they’re trying to get people to stop using it.
rglullis@communick.news 3 weeks ago
I’ve spent the a good part of last year working on Fediverser. The tools to lower the barrier of migration and to get people out of Reddit were built. To me, it feels like it’s the users and admins here that were not interested in pushing that as a goal.
Cris_Color@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
It kinda seems like historically, growth has been driven by exoduses from larger platforms. Right now there’s not any huge things going on on other platforms that piss people off and make them wanna leave but like, twitter, reddit and meta seem really good at finding shitty thing to do, so I’d kinda expect growth to just pick back up whenever the next outrage happens 🤷♂️
rglullis@communick.news 3 weeks ago
Isn’t it a little bit sad to think that the best we can do here is to wait for everyone else to get pissed at Big Tech’s fuckups?
db0@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 weeks ago
Network effects are incredibly strong. Twitter is a disinformation and fascist hellhole, and yet people who should know better still refuse to leave. We have the advantage that we’re not growth focused, so we can can bide our time. The inevitable enshittification will do its job eventually, but there’s no telling when the tipping point will happen.
rglullis@communick.news 3 weeks ago
Yet, Bluesky has grown to 35M+ active accounts, even though the came way after us
This is not an “advantage”. This is an excuse we tell ourselves to cope with our failures.
And when it does, the majority of people will go the next shiny “free as in beer”, VC-funded siloed platform and we are going to be just another “They don’t know” meme.
Cris_Color@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
I mean everyone already has platforms they’re largely comfortable with and fediverse platforms are less accessible, smaller, and usually clones of existing formats. The primary place we compete is on not being total dogshit, so when people can forget that their comfortable platforms are dogshit, it doesn’t surprise me that people wouldn’t be going out of their way to venture out into a new unfamiliar thing, with a different culture and much smaller userbase 🤷♂️
I’m happy to be here regardless of whether we’re growing personally. In spite of Lemmy’s challenges I enjoy it here, and that’s enough for me.
Blaze@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 weeks ago
Always cool to see you around!
rglullis@communick.news 3 weeks ago
I think this is a fine attitude if you are an user who just wants to enjoy a “slow web” kind of experience, but as someone aware of all the ill effects of Big Tech and Surveillance Capitalism, I wish we were more ambituous and aimed for a bigger slice of user share.
Ek-Hou-Van-Braai@piefed.social 3 weeks ago
The horrors persist, but so should we
sentient_loom@sh.itjust.works 3 weeks ago
I honestly think self-righteousness pushes people away. It’s why I can barely stand bluesky. During the big exodus from reddit, all these so-called far-lefties (who I think were just reddit goons doing infiltration) were all screaming for everybody to defederate. Even now, I keep arguing against idiots posting “kill a cop” or “kill fascists” memes, like this is literally an “advocate violence” platform. I don’t expect to pull big numbers with that kind of shit.
rglullis@communick.news 3 weeks ago
Yeap, 100%. The extremists and the terminally online are overrepresented here, and that keeps the masses away.
I’d suggest though to not waste your time arguing with the self-righteous idiots and just focus on bringing more normie-friendly content.
Cris_Color@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Yeah we do have a lot of people who feel it’s more important to demonstrate their anger than to figure out what people could do to improve the problems.
Worse still, a lot of people seem to have convinced themselves that whatever makes it most clear they’re angry and hurts the people they disagree with the most is actually what’s most productive. The anger about the state of things, particularly in the US is entirely valid. The self-justification of behaviours that burn bridges and radicalize more people is not.
If you want to implement any kind of solution you do, necessarily have to have a critical mass of people who agree with you, and you cannot build that by antagonizing anyone who doesn’t already share your exact flavour of left wing ideology, and acting in a way that reflects poorly on your ideology to everyone except people who already agree with you
Very rarely is anyone willing to confront that violence as a means to an end, pragmatically, has enormous costs, and that employing it just because you’re (justifiably) angry, is almost always detrimental to the exact abouts you’re mad about
(Sorry, I know I kinda went off track from exactly what you were talking about, this is just a closely related huge frustration of mine)
barrygoldwater@lemmy.wtf 2 weeks ago
soooo much! Not only is this becoming an “advocate violence” platform, people are getting pissed if they have a post removed for advocating violence. Lemmy will def end up in the news after some crazy shoots up people and they find out he was all over Lemmy being cheered on to shoot billionaires or something.
Endmaker@ani.social 3 weeks ago
How about more marketing efforts? Buying ads?
rglullis@communick.news 3 weeks ago
Who is going to pay for those ads? With what money? There is no single entity here with enough interest in growing the Fediverse, and any grassroots movements that we do have are strictly against commerce.
The Lemmy devs would be making more money if they went to work for Uber Eats than as software developers, and I barely manage to convince people to pay $2.50/month to offer a professional hosting service.
We don’t really need to “buy ads” to grow. We just need to get more people willing to invest in it.
Blaze@lemmy.dbzer0.com 3 weeks ago
!fedibridge@lemmy.dbzer0.com
AbnormalHumanBeing@lemmy.abnormalbeings.space 3 weeks ago
That has been my impression of present dynamics and historical data, too - boom-bust-cycles of either some other platform fucking up or there being curiosity from some synergetic effect, then the initial wave breaking over time - but usually also leaving behind at least more (genuinely active) users than before the wave. For Lemmy, one can definitely see some reduction in activity, I think - not dramatically, but I do think it’s noticeable if you spend a lot of time here. E.g. unlike during the last Exodus, I see more of “the same users” than before. There’s still enough content, it does not feel dead by a long shot, and who knows when the next wave may hit.
That wave-like character makes it hard to estimate organic growth too, at times. The mass influx of users dying off over weeks will give shrinking numbers there, even if some users from organic growth who are more likely to stay and be active than “mass exodus users” may still join there. Also, users moving in between MBin/PieFed/Lemmy will fudge numbers, but they are essentially in the same ecosystem.
Cris_Color@lemmy.world 3 weeks ago
Very well put, that’s my perception too