Realistically I am less worried about a proper military to military engagement and more of an asymmetrical response.

They don’t need to have a nuclear program to do a dirty bomb or other similar attack on a civilian population. It doesn’t even have to be an official Iranian response directly, there are enough proxies around there that could fuck shit up for a lot of people.

As for the likelihood of this, its a crapshoot. Someone with more connections or experience can tell you that.