Comment on China's first 6nm GPU boots up, targets performance parity with RTX 4060
Buffalox@lemmy.world 6 days agoAFAIK Canon has a process (nano imprint) that competes with EUV too, maybe not as advanced as ASML.
When I say China will have a competitive EUV system within 5 years, I don’t mean competitive in how advanced it is compared to the best ASML has to offer like the new NA process TSMC hasn’t even decided to buy yet.
But an EUV that allows a production process that will be competitive down to just below 2nm. Meaning competitive with the EUV process TSMC is currently using.
Depending on how much China is investing in this, they could be working on different processes in parallel.
Obviously anything as hard as this with a 5 year time span is very uncertain, we recently saw how bad things went for Intel with their 10nm process, being both multiple years delayed, and on top of that pretty bad when they finally announced it was ready.
As I stated next year would be very fast, but in reality we don’t know how close they are. Your claim that they would advertise it is speculation. What would be the purpose of that?
China is already competitive in 8 out of 10 key industries, and since China is prevented from even using western parts for chip making or even just buying the chips, they are pulling ressources to catch up. China will do this because they have massive talent mass and ressources, and because they have to.
golli@lemm.ee 6 days ago
To advertise that they can? In return what would be the purpose to hide it?
They do seem to make their advancements at least somewhat public, e.g. with their recent progress with a EUV light source.
I am probably on the pessimistic side and you maybe on the optimistic, so the reality will likely end up being somewhere in between (but only time will tell).
Well it also was developed in the west by a large amount of talent and resources and still took a lot of time. But you are absolutely right that their hand is being forced.
Restricting exports like this imo was a huge mistake, imo especially in regard to duv. In the end it might have achieved some damage in the short/medium term, but that wasn’t anything the us could capitalize on and it also directly hurt ASMLs profits (meaning less resources to advance). And regardless how the timeline ends up looking on the end (be it closer to your or my prediction), physics are the same everywhere so that can’t be restricted and they will eventually be able to figure it out.
Buffalox@lemmy.world 5 days ago
To avoid further retaliations from USA that might prevent their progress.
And to not disclose industry secrets.
True, I’m an optimist on their behalf, because China has done such impressive progress already, but I also know this is way harder than sending a man to the moon.
I agree 100% about restricting the tech is a huge mistake, and yes physics are indeed the same everywhere.
Hopefully when China figures it out, consumers everywhere will benefit. The Political implications however, is an open question.