We study the macroeconomic effects of tariff policy using U.S. historical data from 1840–2024. We construct a narrative series of plausibly exogenous tariff changes – based on major legislative actions, multilateral negotiations, and temporary surcharges – and use it as an instrument to identify a structural tariff shock. Tariff increases are contractionary: imports fall sharply, exports decline with a lag, and output and manufacturing activity drop persistently. The shock transmits through both supply and demand channels. Prices rise in the full sample but fall post-World War II, a pattern consistent with changes in the monetary policy response and with stronger international retaliation and reciprocity in the modern trade regime.
The Macroeconomic Effects of Tariffs: Evidence From U.S. Historical Data
Submitted 5 days ago by CombatWombat@feddit.online to economics@lemmy.world
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34852
CombatWombat@feddit.online 5 days ago
Unsurprising findings, but particularly frustrating given the pro-tariff crowd continues to cite increased manufacturing activity and output as a benefit of tariffs.