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phlegmy@sh.itjust.works 2 months agoI’m willing to accept your claim, I’m just yet to see enough evidence to prove it.
Put yourself in their shoes for a moment.
People who criticise Putin over there don’t seem to last very long.
Maybe the average Russian citizen won’t have to worry about that, but there’s still the implication that having different political beliefs is something that should be shunned.
Checking the Levada polling methods, it doesn’t sound like those who are polled are always able to answer anonymously.
Judging by that page, they seem to prioritise door-knocking and in-person interviews.
Are you going to tell the person interviewing you, without knowing if they work for your corrupt government or not, that you disagree with your government?
I’m not a statician, but I think this is called social desirability bias. And when there’s a potential risk to your safety, or even the slightest suspicion that your answers could negatively impact you, that bias increases.
Yes, I’ll admit anecdotal findings are essentially useless when discussing a population, but those statistics aren’t much better.
Alphane_Moon@lemmy.world 2 months ago
Considering the points that you raised, what are your critiques of list experiment methodology (e.g. the one by LSE that I referenced earlier) and their findings that preference falsification is just 10%. I will note that you are the one who brought up personal safety.
If the vast majority of your country are genocidal imperialists, it really doesn’t matter that a tiny micro-minority are hiding their preferences does it? At the very least you can admit that this logic is consistent, no?
Since you brought up Levada, they show that something like 84% of the Russian population supported the annexation of Crimea (i.e. at the very least they are committed imperialists). This data point has been consistent since 2014.
In context of your critique of Levada, how is that list experiment research had a comparable level of support at 80% for the annexation of Crimea?
The truth of the matter is that your have no evidence (quantitative or qualitative) or even a working theory to justify your view that the vast majority of russian are just poor souls who got stuck with putin.
This is nothing new for me btw. On the English language internet, you constantly see comically dumb takes about russians being little angels and putin being solely responsible for all evils committed by the russians.
phlegmy@sh.itjust.works 2 months ago
Read the conclusion of the study. The list experiment very clearly proved that there’s a lot of preference falsification happening, which was all they were testing for.
The survey results are unlikely to be an accurate representation of the public’s support of the war, there are many factors which could raise or lower the true level of support. Getting an accurate percentage wasn’t the purpose of the study.
And I don’t think Russians are innocent. Propaganda and local news may have a strong influence, but the genuine levels of support for their government’s actions is still seemingly much higher than it has any right to be.
But I don’t think its fair to say the vast majority of Russians are genocidal imperialists without accurate figures to back it up.
Those sort of blanket statements lead to racism, hate crimes, etc, against many innocent people.
Alphane_Moon@lemmy.world 2 months ago
And what is their estimate of preference falsification? It’s just ~10%, no?
What impact does this level of preference falsification have with respect to the % of russians who support the invasion of Ukraine, annexation of its territories and extermination of Ukrainian identity?
We go from ~75% to ~65% with preference falsification w.r.t. support for the above, is that not the case?
Do the numbers cited (less preference falsification) in support of the war not fall under the definition of “strong majority”? Is 65% not a strong majority?
Don’t the authors clearly state that their methodology (even with weights) likely underestimates the true level of support?
Their numbers (for support of the invasion of Ukraine) align with other polling methods; which is damning for the “innocent Russians just got played a bad hand, they are not really genocidal imperialists” narrative.
Why did you leave out these numbers? I don’t understand. They clearly reference them. Why would you do this?
But you would never accept any methodology or research that doesn’t show what you want to see. Be honest! It’s not about the research or the numbers for you.
So why bring up “accurate figures”?
White washing the genuine support for genocidal imperialism among a strong majority of russians leads to 100 of thousands of deaths, 10 of thousands people being tortured (UN stated that 95% of Ukrainian POWs were tortured, and that doesn’t include civilians) and millions having their livelihoods ruined.
And I am just referencing Ukraine. There are many other examples. The russians killed 5% of the civilian population of Chechnya in the 90s. That would be equivalent to killing 7 million russian civilians.
phlegmy@sh.itjust.works 2 months ago
In that particular study, yes, they measured a ~10% difference in support when using the list method vs directly asking.
I didn’t mention the exact figure because if you read the study, you would see that even they claim this isn’t a perfect method.
There could be many more supporters of the war, but there could also be many fewer.
As they say, they sampled a relatively liberal demographic, so it’s likely that the national average result from this survey would be higher, which would certainly help your argument.
But they also say that there’s “empirical evidence that list experiments reduce response bias but do not eliminate it entirely (Rosenfeld et al. 2016).”
Like I said earlier, I’m not a statistician, so I have no idea if the bias can be estimated to have been reduced by 90% or 20%.
All I know is that you shouldn’t jump to conclusions, especially when there’s many external factors at play.
I’m willing to be proven wrong, and I don’t appreciate your attempts to strawman me as somebody who isn’t.
I’ll admit that I’m biased because I want to believe that most people over there aren’t terrible, and in my anecdotal experience, they have been. So yes, I’m more likely to be skeptical of results that indicate the opposite, especially if they don’t properly account for the external social influences at play.
I’ve never stated that there isn’t a large percentage of Russians who are genocidal imperialists, I’m arguing that we should try and figure out the facts before claiming that the overwhelming majority of the population are that way.
The way you jump to the opposite conclusion without definitive evidence leads me to believe that you are also biased in your beliefs.
I’m not sure what this argument is trying to accomplish anyway?
I’m not convinced that ‘white washing’ the beliefs of the Russian population are to blame.
What Russia is doing is fucking horrific, there’s no argument to be had there. But should the entire population be monstrified for the actions of their government?
Instead of just slapping a label on the entire population, we should be working on lowering those statistics, and spreading awareness that there’s a huge percentage of Russians who disagree with their government.
The people over there need to know that they aren’t alone in their beliefs, and that they have more like-minded supporters than they realise.
Otherwise the thought of fighting back and enacting change seems hopeless.